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Chapter 16 Business Cycles and Unemployment. Key Concepts Summary Practice Quiz Internet Exercises. ©2002 South-Western College Publishing. What is a business cycle?. Alternating periods of economic growth and contraction, which can be measured by changes in real GDP.

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chapter 16 business cycles and unemployment
Chapter 16Business Cycles and Unemployment
  • Key Concepts
  • Summary
  • Practice Quiz
  • Internet Exercises

©2002 South-Western College Publishing

what is a business cycle
What is abusiness cycle?

Alternating periods of economic growth and contraction, which can be measured by changes in real GDP

what is a peak
What is a peak?

The phase of the business cycle during which real GDP reaches its maximum after rising during a recovery

what is a recession
What is a recession?

A downturn in the business cycle during which real GDP declines

what is a trough
What is a trough?

The phase of the business cycle in which real GDP reaches its minimum after falling during a recession

what is a recovery
What is a recovery?

An upturn in the business cycle during which real GDP rises

slide8

Hypothetical Business Cycle

Peak

Real GDPper year

Growth trend line

Peak

Trough

Recession

Recovery

how long before a downturn is a recession
How long before a downturn is a recession?

The Department of Commerce considers a recession to be at least two consecutive quarters in which GDP declines

when is a downturn considered a depression
When is a downturn considered a depression?

The term depression is primarily an historical reference to the extreme deep and long recession of the early 1930’s

what is economic growth
What iseconomic growth?

An expansion in national output measured by the annual percentage increase in a nation’s real GDP

why is economic growth one of our nation s economic goals
Why is economic growth one of our nation’s economic goals?

It increases our standard of living - it creates a bigger “economic pie”

what is a leading indicator
What is aleading indicator?

Variables that change before real GDP changes

slide15

Leading Indicators

  • Changes in business and consumer credit
  • New orders for plant and equipment
  • New consumer goods orders
  • Unemployment claims
  • Delayed deliveries
  • New business formed
  • Average workweek
  • New building permits
  • Changes in inventories
  • Material prices
  • Stock prices
  • Money supply
what is a coincident indicator
What is acoincident indicator?

Variables that change at the same time that real GDP changes

slide17

Coincident Indicators

  • Nonagricultural payrolls
  • Personal income
  • Industrial Production
  • Manufacturing and trade sales
what is a lagging indicator
What is alagging indicator?

Variables that change after real GDP changes

slide19

Lagging Indicators

  • Unemployment rate
  • Duration of unemployment rate
  • Labor cost per unit of output
  • Inventories to sales ratio
  • Outstanding commercial loans
  • Commercial credit to personal income ratio
  • Prime interest rate
what causes unemployment
What causes unemployment?

When total spending falls, businesses will find it profitable to produce a lower volume of goods and avoid unsold inventory

who is considered unemployed
Who is considered unemployed?

Anyone who is 16 years of age and above who is actively seeking employment

who is considered employed
Who is considered employed?

Anyone who works at least one hour a week for pay or at least 15 hours per week as an unpaid worker in a family business

what is the unemployment rate
What is the unemployment rate?

The percentage of people in the labor force who are without jobs and are actively seeking jobs

slide24
Unemployment rate

unemployed

civilian labor force

X 100

=

how is the unemployment rate calculated
How is the unemployment rate calculated?

56,000 households are surveyed each month

what is the civilian labor force
What is thecivilian labor force?

People 16 years or older who are either employed or unemployed, excluding members of the armed forces and people in institutions

slide27

Total Population age 16 and over

Civilian labor force

Not in Labor ForceArmed forcesHousehold workersStudentsRetireesPersons with disabilitiesInstitutionalizedDiscourage workers

EmployedEmployeesSelf-employed

UnemployedNew entrantsRe-entrantsLost last jobQuit last jobLaid off

who is a discouraged worker
Who is adiscouraged worker?

A person who wants to work, but who has given up searching for work. He or she believes there will be no job offers

what is underemployment
What is underemployment?

People working at jobs below their level of skills

what are criticisms of the unemployment rate
What are criticisms of the unemployment rate?
  • Does not include discouraged workers
  • Includes part-time workers
  • Does not measure underemployment
slide31

The U.S. Unemployment Rate

25

20

15

10

5

1930

40

50

60

70

80

90

00

what are the types of unemployment
What are the types of unemployment?
  • Seasonal
  • Frictional
  • Structural
  • Cyclical
what is seasonal unemployment
What is seasonal unemployment?

Unemployment caused by recurring changes in hiring due to changes in weather conditions

what is frictional unemployment
What is frictional unemployment?

Unemployment caused by the normal search time required by workers with marketable skills who are changing jobs, entering, or re-entering the labor force

what is structural unemployment
What is structural unemployment?

Unemployment caused by a mismatch of the skills of workers out of work and the skills required for existing job opportunities

what is cyclical unemployment
What is cyclical unemployment?

Unemployment caused by the lack of jobs during a recession

what is full employment
What isfull employment?

The situation in which an economy operates at an unemployment rate equal to the sum of the seasonal, frictional, and structural unemployment rates

what percent unemployment is considered full employment
What percent unemployment is considered full employment?

The natural rate of unemployment changes over time, but today it is considered to be about 5%

what is the gdp gap
What is the GDP gap?

The GDP gap is the difference between full-employment real GDP and actual real GDP

key concepts42
Key Concepts
  • What is a business cycle?
  • What are the phases of a business cycle?
  • How long before a downturn is a recession?
  • What are the types of economic indicators?
  • What causes unemployment?
  • Who is considered unemployed?
  • Who is considered employed?
  • What is the unemployment rate?
key concepts cont
Key Concepts cont.
  • What is the civilian labor force?
  • Who is a discouraged worker?
  • What is underemployment?
  • What are the types of unemployment?
  • What is full employment?
  • What percent unemployment is considered full employment?
  • What is the cost of unemployment?
slide45

Business cycles are recurrent rises and falls in real GDP over a period of years. Business cycles vary greatly in duration and intensity. A cycle consists of four phases: peak, recession, trough and recovery.

slide46

The generally accepted theory today is that changes in the forces of demand and supply cause business cycles.

slide47

A recession is officially defined as at least two consecutive quarters of real GDP decline. A trough is the turning point in national output between recession and recovery. During a recovery, there is an upturn in the business cycle during which real GDP rises.

slide48

Hypothetical Business Cycle

Peak

Real GDPper year

Growth trend line

Peak

Trough

Recession

Recovery

slide49

Economic growth is measured by the annual percentage change I real GDP in a nation. The long-term annual average growth rate in the United States is 3 percent.

slide50

Leading, coincident, and lagging indicators are economic variables that change before, at the same time as, and after changes in real GDP, respectively.

slide51

The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number in the labor force multiplied by 100. The nation’s labor force consists of people who are employed plus those who are out of work, but seeking employment.

slide55

Structural unemployment is unemployment caused by factors in the economy, including lack of skills, changes in product demand, and technological change.

slide57

Full employment occurs when the unemployment rate is equal to the total of the seasonal, frictional, and structural unemployment rates.

slide58

The GDP gap is the difference between full employment, or potential real GDP, and actual real GDP. Therefore, the GDP gap measures the loss of output due to cyclical unemployment.

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