Performing a Data Audit to Understand School Dropout Problem

1. Turning Data Into Information: Performing a Data Audit to Understand the Nature and Scope of a School’s Dropout Problem Dropout Prevention and Student Engagement Summit PETER FRITZ DROPOUT PREVENTION AND STUDENT ENGAGEMENT UNIT COLORADO DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION February 18, 2011

2. Benefits of a Dropout Data “Audit” • Simple and fast – uses existing data already provided to CDE • Puts data in context – compares a school’s data to state averages • Understandable – graphic display of data makes it easy to communicate findings

3. Limitations of a Dropout Data “Audit” • Not a substitute for an Early Warning System • Exclusively quantitative vs. qualitative (helps answer who dropped out and when but not why) • Occurs after students have already dropped out • The audit may not be informative for non-traditional high schools (different grade configurations, serving special student populations, etc)

4. Methodology • Aggregated data from the past 3 years (2009-10, 2008-09, 2007-08) • Helps address issues with disaggregated groups that may have a small single-year sample size or schools with small overall populations • Compensates for single year “anomalies” (positive or negative) • Data are taken from CDE’s Student End of Year collection – unless otherwise noted • State-wide averages are intended for comparison to a high school with a “traditional” 9th – 12th grade range

5. Visualizing the Data

6. When Do Students Drop Out: Grade Level EXAMPLE - SCHOOL A Percent of School’s Total Annual Dropouts by Grade Level 50% 40% State Average for each grade 35.0% 30% 31.4% 20% 21.2% 10% 12.4% 0% 9th 10th 11th 12th

7. When Do Students Drop Out: Grade Level EXAMPLE - SCHOOL A • Possible Implications: • Lack of effective transition and orientation programs between middle and high school? • Less experienced / less effective teachers assigned to freshman and sophomore level courses? • Inappropriate / unmerited grade promotion practices at feeder middle schools?

8. When Do Students Drop Out: Grade Level EXAMPLE - SCHOOL B Percent of School’s Total Annual Dropouts by Grade Level 57.6% 50% 40% State Average for each grade 30% 20% 22.3% 14.4% 10% 5.8% 0% 9th 10th 11th 12th

9. When Do Students Drop Out: Grade Level EXAMPLE - SCHOOL B • Possible Implications: • Inappropriate / unmerited grade promotion practices? • Students in programs like SPED Transition Services, English as a Second Language/Bilingual Education and ASCENT are dropping out or aging out rather than receiving a diploma – even with extra years allowed to graduate? • Inappropriate curriculum design or curriculum sequencing?

10. When do Students Drop Out: Time of Year

11. When do Students Drop Out: Time of Year

12. Students who exit in ways other than dropping out can have a negative impact on a school’s graduation rate Percent of Total 9th – 12th Grade Membership Annually Reported as … Dropouts 5.1 Expulsions State Average 7.1% GED Transfers GED Recipients 0.2 1.3 0.5 9.0 21.7 7.7 38.5% School X 0.1 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

13. Example #2 Percent of Total 9th – 12th Grade Membership Annually Reported as … Dropouts 5.1 Expulsions State Average 7.1% GED Transfers GED Recipients 0.2 1.3 0.5 4.1 5.3 23.1 32.5% School Y 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

14. By Middle School Attended 50% 40% For each middle/ feeder school listed: 35% 32.3% 30% Percent of Total HS Student Population 27.3% 25.2% 25.1% 22.6% 20% Percent of Total Annual HS Dropouts 14.7% 10% 10% 0% Anderson Bradley Cooper Other

15. To download a copy of the Excel tool used to create the graphs in this report for your high school: Visit the Dropout Prevention and student engagement unit web page on the CDE web site: http://www.cde.state.co.us/DropoutPrevention/

16. Student Perceptions as Predictors of High School Graduation Dropout Prevention and Student Engagement Summit ALAN DAVIS ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, EDUCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND RESEARCH METHODS February 18, 2011

17. Best 8th grade predictors of high school graduation • Grades in Academic Courses • Average 8th grade GPA of DPS Graduates: 3.2 • Average 8th grade GPA of DPS Dropouts: 1.8 • Attendance • Behavior (lack of referrals, suspensions) • Student perceptions (goals, motivation, connections, stresses, confidence)

18. Denver Study of Student Perceptions • Importance of High School • Importance of College • Social Confidence • Classroom Confidence • Family Support • Teacher Connections • Peer Connections • Meaningful motivation to learn • Academic Stress • Social Stress • Financial Stress • Sleeping Problems • Feeling Blue • Agitation • Eating Problems • Physical Symptoms

19. Scales Most Predictive of High School Success • Importance of College • It is important that I go to college • Meaningful Motivation to Learn • I keep coming to school because I see the importance of learning • Classroom Confidence • I am confident about asking questions in class • Agitation (negative) • During the past week I have been experiencing mood swings • Academic Stress (negative) • During the past month I have had difficulty taking tests

20. Predictive Power • Combined scale correctly predicted • 58% of academically successful students • 60% of academically unsuccessful students