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The 2 nd Year of the Recovery: Performance and Outlook. Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University. October 27, 2010. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions. % Change in GDP. Quarters After Trough.

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October 27, 2010

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October 27 2010

The 2nd Year of the Recovery:

Performance and Outlook

Stephen S. Fuller, PhD

Director, Center for Regional Analysis

School of Public Policy

George Mason University

October 27, 2010


October 27 2010

Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP

Past Four Recessions

% Change in GDP

Quarters After Trough

Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


U s gross domestic product quarterly change 2006 2012

U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2012

%

Forecast > > > > > > > >

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Global Insight


October 27 2010

U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices

Nov 2006 – Sep 2010

RECESSION > > >

L.I.

C.I.


October 27 2010

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

MFG

NON-MFG


October 27 2010

Initial Unemployment Claims

000s

(4-week moving average)

454


Annual change in payroll jobs us

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US

THOUSANDS

Sep =

+ 321

Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA


U s job change by sector december 2007 december 2009

U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2007 – December 2009

Ranked by Size in 2010

Total - 8,363,000

(000s)

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis


U s job change by sector december 2009 september 2010

U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2009 – September 2010

Ranked by Size in 2010

(000s)

Total 613,000

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis


U s unemployment rate

U.S. Unemployment Rate

%

9.6 %

  • GI Fcst

  • 9.7

  • 9.6

  • 9.1

  • 8.5

  • 7.9

  • 7.3

Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted


October 27 2010

The Washington

Area Economy


October 27 2010

Washington MSA Leading Economic Index

Month-Over-Year Percent Change

12-Month

Moving Average


Annual job change washington msa

Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA

000s

Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2008 2009 2010

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


15 largest job markets job change sep 09 sep 10

15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Sep 09 – Sep 10

(000s)

Washington + 56,100

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Job change by sector sep 2009 sep 2010 washington msa

Job Change by SectorSep 2009 – Sep 2010Washington MSA

Total 56,100

(000s)

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Annual job change northern virginia

Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia

000s

Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2008 2009 2010

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Job change by sector dec 2007 dec 2009 northern virginia

Job Change by SectorDec 2007 – Dec 2009Northern Virginia

Total - 30,700

(000s)

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Job change by sector sep 2009 sep 2010 northern virginia

Job Change by SectorSep 2009 – Sep 2010Northern Virginia

Total 15,000

(000s)

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


October 27 2010

Unemployment Rate

%

U.S.

9.5

6.2

5.1

MSA

NVA

Source: BLS (Not seasonally adjusted)


15 largest job markets ranked by unemployment rate august 2010

15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateAugust 2010

%

US

9.5

6.2

Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted


Housing market trends

Housing Market Trends


October 27 2010

Existing Home Sales

Washington MSA

Through September 2010

12-Month Moving Average


Percent change in inventories of existing homes month over the year change 2000 2010 msa

Percent Change in Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA

%

Jan-May, 2006 >100 %

Sep =

+ 2.1%

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Total active listings per sale september each year

Total Active Listings Per SaleSeptember Each Year

PW

PG

LDN

DC

MONT

FFX

ARL

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Average sales price percent change washington msa all housing types

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types

%

Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Average sales price percent change northern virginia all housing types

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll Housing Types

%

Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


October 27 2010

Economic Forecast


Economic outlook grp 2015 washington area and sub state portions annual change

Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change)

%

NV

MSA

SM

DC

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Employment change by sub state region 000s

Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)

Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000

Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS


October 27 2010

GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015

%

Washington

U.S.

Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


October 27 2010

Policy-cra.gmu.edu


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