The 2
Download
1 / 31

October 27, 2010 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 47 Views
  • Uploaded on

The 2 nd Year of the Recovery: Performance and Outlook. Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University. October 27, 2010. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions. % Change in GDP. Quarters After Trough.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' October 27, 2010' - atara


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript

The 2nd Year of the Recovery:

Performance and Outlook

Stephen S. Fuller, PhD

Director, Center for Regional Analysis

School of Public Policy

George Mason University

October 27, 2010


Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP

Past Four Recessions

% Change in GDP

Quarters After Trough

Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


U s gross domestic product quarterly change 2006 2012
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2012

%

Forecast > > > > > > > >

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Global Insight


U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices

Nov 2006 – Sep 2010

RECESSION > > >

L.I.

C.I.


ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

MFG

NON-MFG


Initial Unemployment Claims

000s

(4-week moving average)

454


Annual change in payroll jobs us
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US

THOUSANDS

Sep =

+ 321

Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA


U s job change by sector december 2007 december 2009
U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2007 – December 2009

Ranked by Size in 2010

Total - 8,363,000

(000s)

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis


U s job change by sector december 2009 september 2010
U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2009 – September 2010

Ranked by Size in 2010

(000s)

Total 613,000

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis


U s unemployment rate
U.S. Unemployment Rate

%

9.6 %

  • GI Fcst

  • 9.7

  • 9.6

  • 9.1

  • 8.5

  • 7.9

  • 7.3

Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted


The Washington

Area Economy


Washington MSA Leading Economic Index

Month-Over-Year Percent Change

12-Month

Moving Average


Annual job change washington msa
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA

000s

Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2008 2009 2010

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


15 largest job markets job change sep 09 sep 10
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Sep 09 – Sep 10

(000s)

Washington + 56,100

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Job change by sector sep 2009 sep 2010 washington msa
Job Change by SectorSep 2009 – Sep 2010Washington MSA

Total 56,100

(000s)

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Annual job change northern virginia
Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia

000s

Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2008 2009 2010

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Job change by sector dec 2007 dec 2009 northern virginia
Job Change by SectorDec 2007 – Dec 2009Northern Virginia

Total - 30,700

(000s)

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Job change by sector sep 2009 sep 2010 northern virginia
Job Change by SectorSep 2009 – Sep 2010Northern Virginia

Total 15,000

(000s)

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Unemployment Rate

%

U.S.

9.5

6.2

5.1

MSA

NVA

Source: BLS (Not seasonally adjusted)


15 largest job markets ranked by unemployment rate august 2010
15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateAugust 2010

%

US

9.5

6.2

Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted



Existing Home Sales

Washington MSA

Through September 2010

12-Month Moving Average


Percent change in inventories of existing homes month over the year change 2000 2010 msa
Percent Change in Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA

%

Jan-May, 2006 >100 %

Sep =

+ 2.1%

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Total active listings per sale september each year
Total Active Listings Per SaleSeptember Each Year

PW

PG

LDN

DC

MONT

FFX

ARL

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Average sales price percent change washington msa all housing types
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types

%

Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Average sales price percent change northern virginia all housing types
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll Housing Types

%

Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis



Economic outlook grp 2015 washington area and sub state portions annual change
Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change)

%

NV

MSA

SM

DC

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Employment change by sub state region 000s
Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)

Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000

Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS


GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015

%

Washington

U.S.

Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis



ad