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October 27, 2010 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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The 2 nd Year of the Recovery: Performance and Outlook. Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University. October 27, 2010. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions. % Change in GDP. Quarters After Trough.

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October 27, 2010

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The 2nd Year of the Recovery:

Performance and Outlook

Stephen S. Fuller, PhD

Director, Center for Regional Analysis

School of Public Policy

George Mason University

October 27, 2010


Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP

Past Four Recessions

% Change in GDP

Quarters After Trough

Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2012

%

Forecast > > > > > > > >

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Global Insight


U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices

Nov 2006 – Sep 2010

RECESSION > > >

L.I.

C.I.


ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

MFG

NON-MFG


Initial Unemployment Claims

000s

(4-week moving average)

454


Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US

THOUSANDS

Sep =

+ 321

Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA


U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2007 – December 2009

Ranked by Size in 2010

Total - 8,363,000

(000s)

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis


U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2009 – September 2010

Ranked by Size in 2010

(000s)

Total 613,000

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis


U.S. Unemployment Rate

%

9.6 %

  • GI Fcst

  • 9.7

  • 9.6

  • 9.1

  • 8.5

  • 7.9

  • 7.3

Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted


The Washington

Area Economy


Washington MSA Leading Economic Index

Month-Over-Year Percent Change

12-Month

Moving Average


Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA

000s

Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2008 2009 2010

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Sep 09 – Sep 10

(000s)

Washington + 56,100

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Job Change by SectorSep 2009 – Sep 2010Washington MSA

Total 56,100

(000s)

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia

000s

Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2008 2009 2010

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Job Change by SectorDec 2007 – Dec 2009Northern Virginia

Total - 30,700

(000s)

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Job Change by SectorSep 2009 – Sep 2010Northern Virginia

Total 15,000

(000s)

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Unemployment Rate

%

U.S.

9.5

6.2

5.1

MSA

NVA

Source: BLS (Not seasonally adjusted)


15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateAugust 2010

%

US

9.5

6.2

Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted


Housing Market Trends


Existing Home Sales

Washington MSA

Through September 2010

12-Month Moving Average


Percent Change in Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA

%

Jan-May, 2006 >100 %

Sep =

+ 2.1%

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Total Active Listings Per SaleSeptember Each Year

PW

PG

LDN

DC

MONT

FFX

ARL

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types

%

Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll Housing Types

%

Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Economic Forecast


Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change)

%

NV

MSA

SM

DC

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)

Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000

Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS


GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015

%

Washington

U.S.

Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Policy-cra.gmu.edu


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