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Interest Rate Monitor. June 2, 2013. Brief Overview. International. MENA Region. US: Yields extend gains as consumer confidence rises to highest level since 2007. Egypt: Fiscal deficit continues to widen.
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Interest Rate Monitor June 2, 2013
Brief Overview International MENA Region US: Yields extend gains as consumer confidence rises to highest level since 2007 Egypt: Fiscal deficit continues to widen Eurozone: Support for peripheral bond market continues, despite little hope for eurozone recovery GCC News Highlights OECD cuts world growth outlook IMF: Arab spring nations face delayed economic recovery UK: Likely to continue commitment to meeting deficit targets GCC interbank rates Japan: Volatility in stocks and bond markets continues Comparative MENA Markets China: Manufacturing accelerates offering some hope, as IMF cuts growth forecast Local Economy Markets overview New and analysis Major Indices: Stocks end strong May with a sell-off • FX reserves increase significantly to around $10 billion as of end-May Commodities and Currencies: Gold drops amid speculation about Fed tapering Markets overview Central Bank Meeting Calendar • Amman Stock Exchange Interest Rate Forecast • Local Debt Monitor The Week Ahead • Prime Lending Rates
Treasuries monthly loss is biggest in 3 years as Fed considers tapering • Treasuries recorded the steepest monthly loss since 2009 amid speculation the Federal Reserve could curtail its unprecedented monetary stimulus program if recent improvement in domestic economic data is sustainable. • The 10-year yield surged 46bp since April 30, the most since jumping 50bp in December 2010. • Yields extended gains Friday after a report showed consumer confidence rose in May to the highest level since 2007. • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose 12 basis points this week to 2.13%.
U.S. consumer spending falls as inflation remains subdued, adding to QE tapering debate • U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly fell in April for the first time in almost a year and inflation pressures were subdued, pointing to a slowdown in economic activity that could dampen market speculation that the Fed might start scaling back monetary easing. • Purchases fell 0.2% after a 0.1% gain in March that was smaller than previously estimated, a Commerce Department report showed Friday. • One reason consumers may have pulled back is weak income data, which was unchanged when adjusting for inflation. • Moreover, overall prices fell 0.3% last month after dipping 0.1% in March. A core reading that strips out food and energy costs was flat after rising 0.1% the prior month. • Over the past 12 months, inflation has risen just 0.7%, the smallest gain since October 2009 and pushing further below the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The index had increased 1.0% in the period through March. • Core prices are up 1.1%, the smallest rise since March 2011 and slowing from 1.2% in March.
Possible headwinds to U.S. recovery remain, but recovery is still expected to pick up in the second half of the year • There have been fears among economists that the cutback in federal spending and the expiration of some tax breaks that took place earlier this year would prove to be a drag on the economy this year. Friday's report could be another warning sign of those economic headwinds. • Meanwhile, the U.S. economy grew at a slightly slower pace than originally reported in the first quarter, according to revisions released by the Commerce Department on Thursday. • The revisions show that gross domestic product rose at a 2.4% annual pace in the first three months of the year, down slightly from the 2.5% pace originally reported last month • Growth is expected to ease this quarter to a 1.6% annualized rate, but the second half will show improvement, with GDP projected to climb at an average pace of 2.4%.
Consumer sentiment in U.S. rises to highest since July 2007, signaling that the U.S. economy is getting better • On the other hand, consumer confidence rose in May to the highest level in almost six years as a rising stock market and property values helped lift Americans’ outlook on the economy. • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of sentiment increased to 84.5 in May, the strongest since July 2007, from 76.4 a month earlier. • The increase in personal wealth from higher real-estate values and stock prices that’s bolstering sentiment may help keep consumer spending from faltering after a decline in April. • Housing activity is recovering from low levels. A report this week showed that home prices surged during the first quarter at their fastest pace in nearly seven years, the latest sign of a sustained warm-up in an economic recovery that has otherwise been marked by starts and stops. • Home prices in March rose by 10.9% from a year earlier, the largest such gain in seven years, according to the Case/Shillerindex tracking home prices in 20 U.S. cities. • The housing-market revival—and the accompanying report on consumer confidence—adds new fuel for a debate inside the Fed about how far to push its easy-money policies. • Thus, uncertainty regarding the debate about tapering quantitative easing, but it does seem that despite some weak data, the Fed is moving closer to the exit as data and fundamentals in the U.S. improve.
Volatility in peripheral bonds rises, but support for market continues • Peripheral bond markets continue to do well despite the rise in volatility. Ample liquidity, search for yield and improving fundamentals will continue to support peripheral bond markets. • Italy’s and Spain’s 10-year yield rose 2bp over the week to 4.44% and 4.16% respectively Friday. • Meanwhile, the Bund yield slipped 1bp on Friday but it finished the week 7bp higher at 1.50%. • Similarly France’s 10-year yield fell 3bp Friday, but rose 13bp during the week to 2.07%. • Over the past week, the EU Commission removed Italy from the ‘list of sinners’ as the budget deficit is now below the 3% limit. France and Spain were given two more years to reach the limit.
European Commission gives more leeway with austerity • The European Commission has given several eurozone governments breathing space to reduce their deficits to the mandated 3% of GDP limit, as worries about wavering public support for economic reform intensify amid a bleak near-term outlook for the eurozone. • The commission on Wednesday proposed giving France, Spain, Poland and Slovenia two extra years to hit the 3% threshold, and proposed giving the Netherlands and Portugal one extra year. • Moreover, the commission removed Italy from its list of countries that exceed the 3% limit. But the Italian government still has a long list of overhauls to pass. • In return, EU authorities handed politicians in those nations some unpleasant homework: overhauls of labor markets, pension systems and other programs that threaten to arouse domestic opposition. • Officials are insisting on these changes as the price for relaxing mandates to reduce government budget deficits. • The prospect of broad structural reforms is also aimed at easing concerns among a group of northern countries, led by Germany, about the idea of giving member nations more time to bring their deficits in line with EU rules, which generally limit deficits to 3% of annual economic output.
Eurozone data provides little evidence of recovery • The eurozone economy showed further signs of deterioration as unemployment hit a fresh record and retail spending fell in the bloc's largest economies, offering little hope the region's longest postwar recession will end soon. • The unemployment rate across the eurozone rose to 12.2% in April, the highest rate since records began in 1995, up from 12.1% in March, Eurostat said Friday. • The number of unemployed rose 95,000 to 19.4 million, Eurostat said. Analysts expect that figure to top 20 million later this year. • The unemployment rise "highlights the fact that the eurozone continues to face major headwinds and still has its work cut out to return to growth. • The report underscored deep divisions within the 17-member euro zone. Unemployment was just 4.9% in Austria and 5.4% in Germany. It was nearly 18% in Portugal and more than 25% in Spain and Greece. • Higher taxes and reduced state spending in southern Europe have exacerbated already deep recessions, pushing joblessness sharply higher.
Low inflation underpins the region’s pain • With new jobs scarce in much of the eurozone, consumer confidence and spending will likely remain under pressure. In France, where joblessness has risen sharply in recent months, retail sales fell 0.3% in April from March. Even in Germany, where unemployment remains near record lows, retail sales fell 0.4% in April. • The spending data from the bloc's two largest economies suggest that, outside of exports, there are few sources of growth that could lift the region out of a recession that started in late 2011. • With the eurozone in its longest recession since its creation, consumer price inflation was far below the ECB's target of just below 2%, coming in at 1.4% in May, slightly above April's 1.2% rate. • That rise may diminish concerns about deflation, but the deepening unemployment crisis remains a threat to the region’s recovery. • The ECB is expected by most analysts to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 0.5% when it meets next week, but leave open the possibility of future stimulus measures if conditions fail to improve. • An interest rate cut is likely at the bank's July meeting given the subdued economy and tame price pressures.
OECD cuts world growth outlook, amid grim economic forecasts for Europe • In its twice-yearly Economic Outlook, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast the world economy would grow 3.1% this year before accelerating to 4% in 2014. • The estimates marked a slightly more pessimistic view after in November the Paris-based think tank forecast global growth of 3.4% this year and 4.2% next year. • The U.S. was seen driving global growth with the world's biggest economy projected to expand 1.9% this year and then accelerating to 2.8% in 2014, which would be the country's best rate since 2005. • In contrast, the eurozone was estimated to remain in recession for a second year. The OECD sees its economy contracting 0.6% in 2013, instead of the slight 0.1% contraction the OECD forecast in November, and then returning to growth next year with a rate of 1.1%. • Lifting its estimate for Japan, the OECD said that the central bank's pledge to ramp up its monetary stimulus aggressively would help its economy grow 1.6% this year. • The OECD took a more pessimistic view on China, forecasting that its economy would grow 7.8% this year, down from a previous estimate of 8.5%.
OECD places most of the burden on the shoulders of central banks • With economies in most countries still in recovery mode, the OECD said central banks should keep monetary policies easy, while the European Central Bank should dramatically step up its efforts to get credit flowing to the economy, as high debt levels leave little room for governments to use fiscal policy to stimulate growth. • The OECD called on the ECB to make banks pay for holding deposits with it and urged it to buy assets such as securitized loans from credit-starved small and medium-sized firms, two options ECB policymakers say they are currently considering. • The OECD said Japan's quantitative easing is overdue and in the U.S. monetary policy should remain "exceptionally accommodative" for some time to come, with a policy reversal happening only very gradually to minimize volatility on global markets. • While putting the emphasis on monetary policy, the OECD also said governments, and particularly the U.S., could tweak fiscal consolidation instead of cuts across the board. This would be more growth-friendly by, for example, avoiding cuts to investment and focusing more on cutting subsidies. • Historically high unemployment remains the most serious challenge facing governments, it observed. The OECD warned governments that urgent action must be taken to reduce unemployment, which has risen to dangerous levels in many countries.
EU expects the U.K. to stick to reducing its deficit • The European Commission told the U.K. government on Wednesday that its budget-deficit reduction program was lagging behind schedule and that it should seek to raise additional revenue by making changes to the sales tax. • The commission said the U.K. should aim to reduce its deficit to 3% of gross domestic product by 2014-2015, a target the country is now expected to miss. • The commission's recommendation may put it at odds with other international organizations—such as the OECD and the IMF—that have advised the U.K. to either keep or slow the current pace of its deficit-reduction policies. Earlier Wednesday, the OECD said the pace at which the U.K. was shrinking its deficit—about 1% of GDP a year—was appropriate and should be implemented as planned. • The independent Office for Budget Responsibility, which sets the U.K. government's forecasts, projects the budget deficit will be 5.9% of GDP in 2014-15 and won't reach the 3% target until 2017-18, when the deficit will be 2.2% of GDP. • Although the U.K. has continued to implement the austerity program that it launched in 2010, the deficit hasn't fallen as quickly as expected because of lackluster economic conditions that led to higher spending on social benefits, such as unemployment, and lower tax revenues, the commission said.
Volatility continues as the Japanese stock market loses momentum and interest rates rise • Focus remains on increased market volatility as the sell-off in the Japanese stock market continued over the past week, andlong-term interest rates yields remain higher than they were at the end of Marchdespite the Bank of Japan's large-scale efforts to keep them down. • Nevertheless, data in Japan continued to show strength as PMI manufacturing rose further and industrial production rose strongly in April. Interestingly, the deflationary pressures are also easing. Core CPI in April was -0.4% following -0.5% in March • Meanwhile, Japan's government said Wednesday it would announce next week its draft road map for a comprehensive three-year economic overhaul, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tries to convince potentially skeptical investors about his vision for ending years of deflationary pressures. • The release of the third pillar of Mr. Abe's economic revival plan—alongside aggressive monetary easing and fiscal stimulus—will be the first test of whether the stock market rally over the past six months under the Abe administration was based on reality or merely inflated expectations.
China manufacturing accelerates, offering some comfort • China’s manufacturing unexpectedly accelerated in May, indicating a slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter may be stabilizing. • The Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 50.8 from 50.6 in April, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in Beijing today. That was higher than all expectations and above the 50 mark, the dividing line between expansion and contraction. • The report may provide some comfort to policy makers after the preliminary reading of a private manufacturing survey released May 23 pointed to the first contraction in seven months. • Premier Li Keqiang said this week that government measures to reform the economy will be accompanied by tapered-off levels of growth and warned last month new stimulus would create risks. • The preliminary reading of a Purchasing Managers’ Index released by HSBC and Markit Economics fell to 49.6 in May from 50.4 in April. The drop, if confirmed by the final figure on June 3, will be the first reading below 50 since October.
IMF lowers China growth forecast to 7.7% • The International Monetary Fund lowered expectations for growth in China, an outlook that has raised questions over whether Beijing will return to stimulus to support the economy. • The Fund also cautioned about China's rising debt levels and a surge in credit, which it warned could be plowed into inefficient uses if it isn't properly managed. • Speaking at a briefing in Beijing at the end of the IMF's annual review of the Chinese economy, IMF First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton said the Fund lowered its growth forecast for the Chinese economy this year to around 7.75% from an earlier forecast of 8%. He cited sluggishness in the global economy, which hurts demand for China's exports. • This follows a series of downgrades from economists at global banks who believe the world’s second-largest economy is slowing more than expected. • Nevertheless, Mr. Lipton stressed that the new forecast still puts the Chinese economy at a brisk growth rate and that Beijing still has the ability to respond to surprises. The IMF's new forecast puts China's growth higher than the official 7.5% target, and the Fund expects the pace of the economy should "pick up moderately" in the second half, as the recent credit expansion takes hold. • Still, Mr. Lipton said, Beijing may have less room to maneuver than before. "While China still has significant policy space and financial capacity to maintain stability even in the face of adverse shocks, the margins of safety are narrowing," he said.
Central Bank Meetings Calendar Calendar for upcoming meetings of main central banks :
Egypt July-April Budget Deficit Widens to 184.8 Billion Pounds • Egypt’s July-April budget deficit widened to 184.8 billion pounds, compared to 117.8 billion pound for the same period last year. • Moreover, the primary deficit to GDP increased to 3.9% during July- April 2012/2013, compared to 1.9% during the period July- April 2011/2012. • The actual deficit as a proportion of GDP had reached 5.1% halfway through the current fiscal year, rising to 6.7% after seven months, 8.2% after eight months and 10.1% in the July‑March period. • Despite the slowdown in the rate of deficit accumulation in April, the government still looks highly likely to miss its full‑year deficit target of 10.7% of GDP (agreed with the IMF), especially given the typical stacking of spending bills at the end of the year. • The figures for April show that total revenue rose by 15.3% month on month, whereas expenditure increased by 10.7%. • The relatively slower rate of increase in expenditure was achieved partly because of only modest month-on-month increases in subsidies and investment. This may have been helped by the slowdown in the depreciation of the Egyptian pound during April. Source: Bloomberg
GCC Economic Highlights: S&P raises Saudi’s long-term sovereign credit rating outlook • Standard & Poor’s has upgraded Saudi Arabia’s long-term sovereign credit rating outlook from “stable” to “positive”. • Standard & Poor’s also affirmed the long-term and short-term local currency sovereign credit ratings at “AA-/A-1+”. • “Growth fundamentals are strengthening in Saudi Arabia,” the rating company said in a statement. “The economy has expanded strongly and steadily.” • S&P’s new credit rating outlook for Saudi Arabia was issued just one day after Saudi Finance Minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf criticized international forecasts of the Kingdom’s growth rates, saying these were too low. • The IMF estimated that Saudi Arabia will register a growth rate of 4.4% for this year, however, Saudi officials believe that this is an underestimate as the positive evaluations issued by the world’s largest credit rating agencies confirm confidence in the strength and durability of the Saudi economy.
GCC Economic Highlights:UAE balance of payment surplus soars in 2012 • An increase in oil prices boosted the UAE's balance of payment (BoP) surplus by more than 100% in 2012 despite a sharp rise in imports and capital outflow by the private sector, according to official data. • Total hydrocarbon exports peaked at around Dh433 billion ($117.89 billion) last year compared with Dh409 billion ($111.35 billion) in 2011 after oil prices hit an all time high of nearly $110 a barrel. • This widened the current account balance to a record high of Dh244.4 billion from Dh187.1 billion despite a surge in imports to nearly Dh814.8 billion from Dh717.7 billion. • As a result, the UAE's balance of payment recorded one of its highest surpluses of nearly Dh36.6 billion ($996.46 million) in 2012 compared with Dh16.2 billion ($441.06 billion) in 2011. • The gap was mainly a result of a sharp rise in private capital outflow to nearly Dh30.7 billion last year compared with an inflow of Dh2.8 billion in 2011.
OPEC oil exporters agree to keep output the same, as a shale oil boom sparks added competition • OPEC oil exporters agreed to leave output policy unchanged on Friday as oil held around the group's preferred level of $100 a barrel. • The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will retain its 30 million barrels per day (bpd) production target for the rest of this year, said Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez, after a swift meeting at OPEC headquarters. • OPEC has little room to pump more oil due to the U.S. shale oil boom that has sparked competition for market share in Asia and set off a rivalry between its top two producers Saudi Arabia and Iraq. • Gulf producers, led by OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia, think that OPEC will still be able to pump at least 30 million bpd, provided U.S. shale grows at a moderate pace. • But oil above $100 has also freed U.S. shale oil in North Dakota and Texas - which competes with OPEC crude of similar, light quality from Nigeria and Algeria, rather than heavier Saudi output. • Nigeria, along with Algeria, has already felt pressured by the U.S. oil boom, losing ground in its most lucrative export market and diverting sales to Asia.
IMF: Arab spring nations face delayed economic recovery • Arab spring countries face rising social tensions that could thwart an early economic recovery from over two years of political turmoil that has worsened fiscal pressures and threatens macroeconomic stability, Ahmed Masoud, the IMF director for the MENA region said at the end of the World Economic Forum that concluded in Jordan. • Moreover, Arab states have made little progress in tackling unemployment, consumer subsidies and other chronic problems that are undermining competitiveness and stifling growth. • Oil importers are growing at about 3%, which is a bit better than last year, but nowhere near levels needed to generate enough jobs for new entries let alone decrease unemployment. • The IMF used the WEF to reiterate the need for Arab countries to cut their energy subsidies, which are estimated to total around $40 billion annually. The subsidies are becoming more unaffordable in view of falling oil exports and slowdown in growth. • Masoud added that oil importers Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan faced the double shocks of high energy and food import bills and the impact of a global economic downturn. Hit by protests, the situation was exacerbated by extra spending on food and energy subsidies that forced governments to draw on foreign reserves and expand domestic borrowing at high interest rates that raised public debt.
GCC interbank rates Source: Bloomberg
Comparative MENA Markets For the period 26/05 – 31/05
Jordan’s FX reserves close to $10 billion • Last week, the central bank announced that its FX reserves reached $9.7 billion, increasing significantly by around $3 billion since the end of 2012. • This increase means that FX reserves now cover just above 5 months of imports, and is well above the 3 month benchmark set by the IMF. • Breaking down the increase, CAB’s estimates found that foreign grants accounted for $1.7 billion of the increase, while the reversal of the dollarization wave accounted for $1.3 billion. • On the other hand, the balance of payments deficit caused by imports accounted for an outflow of $800 million. • Reserves are still expected to increase this year as the government asserted once again that it plans on auctioning a U.S. Treasury guaranteed $1.5-2.0 billion bond, sometime later this year. CAB’s estimates:
Jordan is still expected to raise electricity tariffs • Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour on Tuesday said the government will imminently lift electricity subsidies, noting that such a move is crucial to curb the budget deficit. • Additionally , Masood Ahmed, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department, reiterated the government is expected to remove subsidies on electricity prices to stop financial losses of the state-owned power company, starting July of this year. • The government estimates the 2013 electricity subsidies bill at over JD1.3 billion, which represents a significant amount of the overall budget deficit. • Ensour noted that the supply of Egyptian gas to Jordan is still not stable, as the Egyptian government is seeking to reduce the amount it exports to Jordan from 140 million cubic feet currently to less than 100 million cubic feet. • In other news, the Jordanian government has urged the UN Security Council to address the growing humanitarian crisis arising form the influx of Syrian refugees, highlighting that hosting the refugee community is set to cost Jordan some $1.5 billion in 2013 alone. • Jordan has opened its borders to over 540,000 Syrians since the onset of the conflict in March 2011 -- a number UN officials expect to surpass 1.2 million before the end of the year.
Amman Stock ExchangeFor the period 26/05 – 30/05 ASE free float shares’ price index ended the week at (2017.5)points, compared to (2025.9)points for the last week, posting a decrease of 0.42%. The total trading volume during the week reached JD(39.3) million compared to JD(43.5) million during the last week. Trading a total of (49.6)million shares through (20,191)transactions The shares of (177) companies were traded, the shares prices of (64) companies rose, and the shares prices of (72) declined.
Local Debt MonitorLatest T-Bills As of June 2, the volume of excess reserves, including the overnight window deposits held at the CBJ JD(2,406) million.
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