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Ilia Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Olga Rozovskaya, Marina Varygina EMEP/MSC-E

EMEP case study on heavy metal pollution assessment: Current progress and further activities. Ilia Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Olga Rozovskaya, Marina Varygina EMEP/MSC-E. TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010. EMEP/MSC-E. Outline. Overview of the case study.

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Ilia Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Olga Rozovskaya, Marina Varygina EMEP/MSC-E

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  1. EMEP case study on heavy metal pollution assessment: Current progress and further activities Ilia Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Olga Rozovskaya, Marina Varygina EMEP/MSC-E TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  2. Outline • Overview of the case study • Current progress and further activities • Draft work plan TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  3. Cd depos., 2007 Czech Rep, Cd transboundary transport Overview of the case study Annual EMEP information produced for countries Factors affecting quality of the pollution assessment: • Uncertainties of modelling -spatial resolution - model parameterizations - input data ……………… • Uncertainties of monitoring data -network density - data quality - representativeness of station ………….. • Uncertainties of emission data: - completeness - spatial distribution -temporal variability - local sources TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  4. Overview of the case study EMEP case study on HM pollution assessment under TFMM Main purpose: An integrated analysis of factors affecting quality of the assessment of heavy metal pollution levels using variety of available information(detailed emissions, monitoring and modelling). Expected output: • Detailed assessment of pollution levels in individual countries with high resolution (5 x 5 km, 10 x 10 km) • Recommendations to further improvements of pollution assessment components (quality of emissions, model parameterizations, quality and representativeness of monitoring data etc.. ) Participants: EMEP Centres, national experts, WGE TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  5. Emission data Meteo and geophys. Monitoring data Atmospheric modelling Analysis of results; Recommendations Improved assessment of pollution levels Overview of the case study General scheme of the case study Improvements TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  6. Overview of the case study Work packages of the case study WP1. Emission data preparation for modelling and analysis WP2. Collection and analysis of monitoring data WP3. Preparation of input geophysical and meteorological data for modelling and modification of the model WP4. Atmospheric modelling WP5. Complex analysis of results and improvements of assessment system(modeling, monitoring, emissions) WP6. Improved model assessment of pollution levels in a country The content of each Work Package may differ for each participating country TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  7. Regional model (MSCE-HM) Coverage – EMEP region Resolution – 50×50 km2 Czech Rep. Overview of the case study EMEP/MSC-E HM modeling system Local model (MSCE-HM) • Coverage – selected countries • Resolution – 10×10 km2 Global model (GLEMOS) • Coverage – global • Resolution – 1°×1° TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  8. Current progress of the case study (since November, 2009) 1. Questionnaires about availability of country-specific data were distributed among EMEP countries a) Basic data (minimum to start the case study) b) Additional data (for more detailed assessment) 2. Six countries (Czech Rep, Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Croatia, Slovakia) expressed their wish to take part in the case study and started providing the data TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  9. Current progress of the case study 3. Detailed time tableand working programme was developed for the Czech Republic 4. Bi-lateral meeting between the Czech Republic and MSC-E took place in Moscow 5. Preliminary model calculations were done for the Czech Republic TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  10. Moscow meeting of Czech Republic and MSC-E (14-16 April, 2010) Purpose: to discuss the input data, expected results, time table, etc... focusing on the country-specific data on emissions, measurements, land-cover, meteorological data, critical loads, concentrations in soils. Results • Available monitoring data were presented by CZ and analysed • Emission data from CZ are expected in the June • Work plan for 2010 was developed TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  11. Moscow meeting of Czech Republic and MSC-E (14-16 April, 2010) Results (cont…) • Deliverables from MSC-E were agreed • List of experts from the CZ in the field of emissions, land-cover, critical loads, meteorology, was submitted • Procedure of joint analysis of case study results was discussed • Next meeting - Autumn, 2010 TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  12. Metals of interest TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  13. Purpose: to analyze the effect of finer resolution on modeling results; to provide a country with more detailed assessment Purpose: to assess contributions of different emission source categories on pollution levels Purpose: to evaluate contribution of LPS to overall pollution levels Purpose: to evaluate the effect of short-term temporal changes of emissions on the model performance WP1:Emission data preparation for modelling and analysis TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  14. WP1:Emissions Emission in Croatia, Pb, 2007 Total: 11 tonnes Total emissions, 10 x 10 km2 Contributions of source categories TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  15. Purpose: to increase monitoring set for the analysis Purpose: to check the represenativeness of station Purpose: Wind data - to trace the influence of local sources. Precip. data - for evaluation of wet deposition fluxes - Dry deposition measurements - Measurements at different heights - Filling gaps in measurement network Concentrations in mosses; throughfall WP2. Collection and analysis of monitoring data TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  16. WP2. Monitoring data Measurement data provided by participating countries National network: ~30 stations EMEP: 2 stations Measurements of Cd wet deposition in the Czech Republic in 2007 TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  17. Purpose: to evaluate wind re-suspension flux of HMs Purpose: to calculate exceedances of critical loads with help of WGE Purpose: verification of meteorological data generated by MSC-E; assimilation of national observations WP3. Input geophysical and meteorological data for modelling • What other country-specific data can be relevant? TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  18. WP3. Geophys. and meteo. data Land cover data for the case study Czech Republic Crops, 50x50 km Crops, 10x10 km Source: MODIS, 30``x 30`` (~ 1x1 km), 17 categories • National land-cover data are of high importance TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  19. WP3. Geophys. and meteo. data Concentrations of HMs in soils Source: Europe-wide data of project FOREGS project (1998-2001) , www.gtk.fi/publ/foregsatlas/ Concentrations of Cd in soils in Czech Republic Original data Interpolation (10 x 10 km) • Country-specific concentrations in soil are of high importance TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  20. WP3. Geophys. and meteo. data Meteorological data with fine resolution • Prepared for Czech Republic and Croatia • Preprocessor: MM5 Annual mean air temperature (Czech Republic, 2007) 50 x 50 km 5 x 5 km 10 x 10 km TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  21. Comparison of modelled and observed precipitation amounts (CZ, 2007) Absolute bias (Pmod - Pobs) 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km 5 x 5 km Performance for the Czech Republic: TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  22. WP4. Atmospheric modeling Expected set of modelling exercises: Basic set of calculations • Modelling over a country with current (50 x 50 km) and fine spatial resolution (e.g., 10 x 10 km) • Source-receptor modelling for a country. Sources: neighbouring countries and admin. regions. Receptors: admin. regions and grid cells with stations. • Contribution from the global sources estimated by GLEMOS model (for Hg) TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  23. WP4. Atmospheric modeling Expected set of modelling exercises: Additional calculations • Pollution from different source categories • Modelling with different temporal resolution of emissions • Modelling with detailed vertical distribution of emissions • Pollution levels from individual LPS • Pollution levels from cities • National models • Future emission scenarios • ………………. TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  24. WP4. Atmospheric modeling Preliminary modelling results Air concentrations of Cd in Czech Republic in 2007 (based on EMEP emissions re-gridded to 10 x 10 km grid) 10x10 km 50x50 km TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  25. WP4. Atmospheric modeling Total deposition of Cd in Czech Republic in 2007 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  26. WP5. Complex analysis of results 1. Comparison of modelled and measured levels and identification of discrepancies 2. Analysis of monitoring data 3. Analysis of discrepancies using back trajectories for selected grid cells and source-receptor results TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  27. WP5. Analysis of results February, 25, 00 h February, 25, 06 h February, 25, 12 h February, 25, 18 h Emission, g/km2/d Traj. height, m 3. Analysis of discrepancies using back trajectories for selected grid cells and source-receptor results CZ3 TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  28. WP5. Complex analysis of results 1. Comparison of modelled and measured levels and identification of discrepancies 2. Analysis of monitoring data 3. Analysis of discrepancies using back trajectories for selected grid cells and source-receptor results 4. Model parameterizations (vertical mixing, dry deposition, wet scavenging, ….) 5. Influence of different emission parameters (spatial resolution, temporal variability etc) 6. Comparison with the results of national models 7. Improvements of the pollution assessment system (model, emissions, monitoring ) TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  29. WP6. Improved model assessment of pollution levels in a country Pb deposition; reference year Residential combustion Pb deposition; scenario 1 Pollution levels from Nickel smelter Selected area Transport 10 x 10 km Pb deposition; scenario 2 50 x 50 km Global scale (1º×1º) Germany CL exceedance (Pb, 2000) • Calculated concentrations and deposition with high (10x10 km) spatial resolution • Contributions of administrative regions, cities and neighbouring countries to pollution levels • Contributions of global sources to country’s pollution levels (for Hg) • Contributions of source categories to pollution levels • Contributions of large point sources (incl. big cities) to pollution levels • Critical loads exceedances maps • Simulations based on national future emission scenarios TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  30. Draft time table: - CZ; - HR, IT, NL, ES, SK 2010 2011 2012 Mar-Aug Aug – Oct Aug – Oct Sep – Oct Sep – Jan Oct – Mar Dec – Sep Feb – Nov Apr – Jun TFMM meeting, Cyprus, Larnaca, May 2010 EMEP/MSC-E

  31. Meetings and reporting about the progress • Bi-lateral meeting between MSC-E and Czech Republic (Moscow, 14-16 April ) • TFMM, Larnaca, 2010 • Next bi-lateral meeting between MSC-E and Czech Republic: Autumn, 2010 • Next reporting about the progress: SB meeting, September, 2010

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