Richard B. Rood 734-647-3530 rbrood@umich aoss.engin.umich/people/rbrood

1. Climate Projections: From Useful to UsabilityRichard B. Rood, Maria Carmen Lemos, Donald E. Anderson Richard B. Rood 734-647-3530 rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood December 15, 2010

2. Outline • Introduction of the problem • Literature review • Uncertainty fallacy • Relevance to providing climate data Lemos and Rood, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews, 2010

3. Introduction of the problem • Investigate the perceived gap between the production of climate predictions / projections and their use by practitioners, stakeholders, decision makers etc. • Point of View • Political scientist and a physical scientist • Literature review: Empirical evidence on the use of climate projections. • Seasonal forecasts • Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Centers • Experiential

4. Evidence for Lack of Use • Failure to develop policy • Amplification of the language of uncertainty in political arguments and science research programs • Mixed, both good and bad, outcomes from experiences of using climate projections / predictions • Misunderstanding and poorly matched expectations of producer and providers • Lack of understanding of the scope and methods of use of climate projections / predictions • That is – climate projection information is, indeed, used There is a range of usability: Informs us on better use

5. Literature Review • Based largely on research into the use of seasonal forecasts • For example, choice of seeds for a wet or dry year • A definition • Useful / Usefulness: scientist’s perception of user’s needs • Usability: users’ definition of what knowledge can be readily applied to their decision process

6. Literature Review: Mixed Results • Same seasonal forecast • Valuable to resource-rich, market-based irrigated farmer in Australia • No value to subsidence farmer in Africa with no technological alternatives • Lemos and Morehouse (Global Environmental Change, 2005) – usable information • “directly reflects expressed constituent needs, should be understandable to users, should be available at the times and places it is needed, and should be accessible through the media available to the user community.”

7. Literature Review: Uncertainty • What is the role of uncertainty in decision making? • Decisions are always made in the presence of uncertainty • Physical climate • Policy decisions • Environmental engineering • Land use / Land change / Urbanization • Technological capabilities • Economic impact • Political landscape • ---

8. Role of Uncertainty • It is unlikely that a nuance on the quantitative representation of uncertainty is the greatest hindrance to increasing the usability of climate data. • More sophisticated algorithms, more complete models of complex systems rarely lead to uncertainty reduction. • Focus on, perhaps: • Uncertainty description • Uncertainty quantification • Process based uncertainty analysis

9. Politics and Uncertainty • Amplification of the language of uncertainty in political arguments and science research programs - Selective Doubt Scientific Investigation Produces: Knowledge of Global Warming from Projections RESPONSES None Mitigation Adaptation Scientific Investigation Produces: Uncertainty of the Knowledge

10. Politics and Uncertainty • Uncertainty is a product of scientific investigation. • There is always uncertainty. • Uncertainty can be and is used to fuel political and advocacy positions

11. Uncertainty Fallacy • Uncertainty fallacy, that is, a belief that the systematic reduction of uncertainty in climate projections is required in order for the projections to be used by decision-makers. • Follows from • Review of the use of climate data • Role of climate uncertainty relative to other sources of uncertainty • Role of uncertainty in political and advocacy arguments

12. How does this inform providing climate projections? • Balanced approach to address all of the elements in the knowledge system • Directly addresses practitioner’s needs • Understandable • Available • Accessible • Process-based translation of imperfect projections • Uncertainty description and application • Vetted, evaluated, standardized, documented

13. Systems Definition: Implementation planning Tasks Interfaces to problem solving knowledge base Process improvement Tasks Documentation of end-to-end problem solving Extensibility / Scaling Up Feedback to Basic Data Application’s Community Tasks Data Formats for Community Remapping, regridding Localization (space and time) Parameters (Penman-Monteith) Indices (e.g. Frich) Ensemble Analysis Information databases Information Portals Tasks Emergence of analysis approaches Emergence of evaluation approaches Co-generation of solutions Projection Products Tasks Inventory of products Inventory of services Development of experiential base Tasks Inventory of existing activities Partnering of existing activities Re-use and interoperability? Basic Data

14. Some notes from heat wave study • Can we do better than just saying that it is going to get hotter? • What is value of nuanced calculations of heat extremes and stress? Is it usable information? • What is the balance between having to study each case and the ability to aggregate information and develop general strategies? • What is the minimal level of complexity that must be accommodated?