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Prospects for Industrial Relations in the Broader Public Sector John O’Grady. Four Questions:. What are the underlying changes in economic conditions and the fiscal situation of the Ontario government? Are they structural or cyclical?. Four Questions:.

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Prospects for Industrial Relations

in the Broader Public Sector

John O’Grady


Four Questions:

What are the underlying changes in economic conditions and the fiscal situation of the Ontario government? Are they structural or cyclical?


Four Questions:

What are the underlying changes in economic conditions and the fiscal situation of the Ontario government? Are they structural or cyclical?

If those changes are structural, what are their likely implications for the employment environment in the Broader Public Sector?


Four Questions:

What are the underlying changes in economic conditions and the fiscal situation of the Ontario government? Are they structural or cyclical?

If those changes are structural, what are their likely implications for the employment environment in the Broader Public Sector?

Can the expected changes in the employment environment be addressed by the existing labour relations system?


Four Questions:

What are the underlying changes in economic conditions and the fiscal situation of the Ontario government? Are they structural or cyclical?

If those changes are structural, what are their likely implications for the employment environment in the Broader Public Sector?

Can those changes in the employment environment be addressed by the existing labour relations system?

If changes in the labour relations system are needed, what are the options?



Ontario:

Real GDP – Manufacturing, 1997-2011


Ontario:

Real GDP – Manufacturing,1997-2011



Average Annual Increases Rate,1997-2011

in Government Spending:

2010-11 to 2017-18


Implications for Rate,1997-2011

the BPS Employment Environment

Employment reductions.


Implications for Rate,1997-2011

the BPS Employment Environment

Employment reductions.

Increased public sector employer opposition to restrictions on redeployment rights of public sector managers (seniority, posting).


Implications for Rate,1997-2011

the BPS Employment Environment

Employment reductions.

Increased public sector employer opposition to restrictions on redeployment rights of public sector managers (seniority, posting).

Increased public sector employer resistance to open-ended pensions and liabilities.


Implications for Rate,1997-2011

the BPS Employment Environment

Employment reductions.

Increased public sector employer opposition to restrictions on redeployment rights of public sector managers (seniority, posting).

Increased public sector employer resistance to open-ended pensions and liabilities.

Increased public sector employer resistance to pattern-based wage determination.


Implications for Rate,1997-2011

the BPS Employment Environment

Employment reductions.

Increased public sector employer opposition to restrictions on redeployment rights of public sector managers (seniority, posting).

Increased public sector employer resistance to open-ended pensions and liabilities.

Increased public sector employer resistance to pattern-based wage determination.

Increased attraction to contracting out and divestment and increased opposition to restrictions that impede these.


Eras of Restraint Rate,1997-2011

  • 1975 – 1978: Wage and Price Controls

  • 1981 – 1982: Public Sector Wage Controls (‘6 and 5’)

  • 1993 – 1995: Social Contract

    • wage freeze / 12 ‘Rae Days’

    • 1993-94: 2.3% cut

    • 1994-95: 0.8% increase

  • 1995 – 1999: Harris Cuts:

    • 1996-97: 3.3% cut

    • 1997-98: 0.3% increase


  • Changes in the System Rate,1997-2011

    More centralized bargaining.


    Changes in the System Rate,1997-2011

    More centralized bargaining.

    Addressing the self-referential bias of public sector arbitration.


    Changes in the System Rate,1997-2011

    More centralized bargaining.

    Addressing the self-referential bias of public sector arbitration.

    Limited liability for benefits and pensions.


    Changes in the System Rate,1997-2011

    More centralized bargaining.

    Addressing the self-referential bias of public sector arbitration.

    Limited liability for benefits and pensions.

    Integration of pension bargaining with wage bargaining.


    Changes in the System Rate,1997-2011

    More centralized bargaining.

    Addressing the self-referential bias of public sector arbitration.

    Limited liability for benefits and pensions.

    Integration of pension bargaining with wage bargaining.

    Greater flexibility on re-deployment (overriding seniority and posting)

    Fewer impediments to contracting out and divesting.


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