Coastal Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment Process

1. Coastal Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment Process Pasha Carruthers, Cook Islands National Environment Service Jakarta, Indonesia, March 20th , 2006 Cook Islands Experiences & Challenges

2. Cook Islands • Island micro-state • Latitude 9-22°S • Longitude 157-166°W • limited land size (240 sq km) • small population size (16,000?) • limited natural resources • external economic and physical impacts important • geographic diversity with both high and low islands- V&A only done on 3 islands Today’s Presentation: Background Experience Methods Findings Future Directions

3. Socio-economic elements • All live within 5 km of coast • Tourism • Pearls • Commercial and Subsistence Seafood • Coastal Flood Plain Agriculture

4. Signatory to UNFCCC 1992 needed to produce “The Initial National Communication” PICCAP - Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Programme: 1997-2001 Implemented by SPREP (South Pacific Regional Environment Programme) Assist countries to meet their obligations under the Convention Provided technical assistance, training, capacity building Background • Country Team Approach • USP V&A Course • Expected to integrate emphasis on model scenario generation – PACCLIM Instead focused on: • expanding the V&A statement to enhance full representation of the country • qualitative baselines • public awareness

5. Cook Islands INC Experience • Methods applied limited mainly to analogues, expert judgment, brainstorming • Assumptions Not Tested • Why so limited? • Relevance to scale • Capacity and Technology • Poor understanding of other methods

6. Models and Decisions • Integrated Assessment Models still more theory than practice • MAGICC, IMAGE & others have benefits but time consuming to run meaningful(?) simulations • Expensive PACCLIM demonstration tool has had limited applicability • not simple, too many errors, closed programs • useful application at the decision maker level requires a motivator and a greater level of completeness. • Role as a training tool, for identifying cross sectoral considerations

7. PACCLIMOutputs Where is my island?

8. Example of Cook Clim Inundation Simulation Concerns: Only for one island Not visually significant for decision makers Population & Socio-economic info missing Time Consuming

9. Brainstorming MethodMain Types Of Coastal Sector Impacts

10. Observed Impacts Coastal Zones - erosion Exposure of infrastructure and housing to storm surge. Rarotonga - Coconut trees frequently falling over, rock walls, groynes etc

11. Observed Impacts cont • Coastal Zones and Coral Reefs • Coral Bleaching, poor reef health Tongareva - Exposed coral heads sensitive to temperature increases

12. Observed Impacts • Storm Surge, Cyclones

13. Water Resources - Salinisation Observed Impacts The narrow width of the islands means saltwater intrusion is always a threat to shallow wells such as these. Drought reduces the fresh water level, and risks contamination.

14. Research Method – Information Gathering • Needed • an information paper on V&A objectives for stakeholders • consultations with key ministries and consultants • Island specific data relevant to the scope of the assessment • collated published information • physical, social, economic, political

15. Field Research Challenges • Trust • Limited time • Presenting complex material • Getting relevant input • Recording feedback • Verifying anecdotes • Quantifying observations and uncertainties • Focal point established • Overview of the island • Meetings with government officials, community leaders • Informal discussions • School and Media Presentations • Qualitative observations including anecdotal evidence

16. Island Specific:Mangaia and Storm Surge Housing located on makatea ridge Coral is porous Storm surges increase swamp salinity – anecdotal – no baseline Taro Root Crops Suffer -major export -source of nutrition

17. Nature of Findings • Poor linkages between levels of government, departments, and external projects/consultants • Data access and storage disjointed • Coastal zone as a climate sensitive sector • lack of locally relevant scientific assessment tools (although maybe have some now!) • insight from locals e.g. salt water intrusion • but difficulty remained as to what decisions to make

18. Coastal Area Adaptation Options Brainstorming Method • Traditional Measures • reforestation, housing, windbreaks • Technology • Coastal protection devices • Community • Coastal Vegetation Planting • Awareness/Education • Policy • Promote sustainable development - ecotourism • Conservation, ICZM

19. Expert Judgement use in identifying adaptation optionsExample: Marine Resources in Coastal Area • Areas of concern • erosion, coral reef resilience, near shore fisheries, pearl quality • Adaptation options - Generalised • development away from shoreline • integrated coastal management • ra’ui, incorporate traditional and modern conservation • monitoring, sensitive species and rehabilitation plans • education and awareness • Reduce sources of sedimentation and eutrophication

20. Current Practices – new methods, more data • Case studies -Site specific and localised assessment, • CBDAMPIC, Participatory V&A, Adaptation Option Implementation • CLIMAP – Modelling Coastal Inundation & Costs of Adaptation • AIACC – Research based – lack of data for modelling impacts • Use of technology such as GIS • More focus on adaptation option assessment, costs and benefits, socioeconomic and livelihood aspects, integration into policy, promotion of adaptation

21. Lessons Learnt • Different islands in the Cooks have very different vulnerability profiles and adaptation needs • Lack of quantitative assessment tools and data means baselines are difficult to establish • Meetings can be hard to arrange – informants feel ‘over consulted’ frustrated by studies and no action • Recording everything in a systematic way vital , time consuming • Need to Verify facts from all sources as many repeat errors • Much awareness can be generated simply through audio-visual resources • Incorporation of climate relevant policies into island development plans ongoing issue

22. Future Directions • Open Structure Models, focused data collection • Access to national and international technical expertise • Improve results obtained from simple methods, interview skills, checklists • Reporting Important, takes time, need benchmarks • Risk Management and coping ability • Integrated management plans • Implementation through policy, National Implementation Strategy • Public & Education Awareness • Continued lobbying for adaptation assistance

23. Conclusion Recognising the urgency of these assessments, the time constraints (3 years) in which we have to produce the second national communications, one role for us is to ensure the V&A produces better information and baselines for now and the future so we are further ahead for precautionary approaches.

24. Thankyou

25. Geography Levels to Cook Islands V&A Assessments Community Level 1 Environmental Health Island Specific Baseline Data Available Government Level 2 Environment Service Resilience Country Specific PICCAP Project Economic Cost of Climate Change Country Team Suitable Adaptation Options Level 3 GEF Island Councils UNDP Local Decision Makers APN Global Regional Research Capacity SPREP Tradition Models PICCAP Public Awareness of Climate Issues SURVAS National Communications Sustainability