Power Trends 2012

2. Power Trends 2012 • Outlook • Building Reliability • Demand Trends • Supply Trends • Issues • Natural Gas • Aging Infrastructure • Policy Coordination • Regional Collaboration • Conclusions Power Trends 2012: State of the Grid

3. Building Reliability Since 2000, New York has added: • Over 2,000 MW of demand response • Over 9,000 MW of new generation • Over 1,600 MW of new transmission

4. Peak Load vs. Average Demand

5. Demand Response Resources

6. Demand Response in Action

7. Generation Added

8. Transmission Added

9. Resource Availability Total Resources Available: 43,686 MW Total Resources Required: 38,622 MW 39,570 MW In-State Generation Resources

10. Historic Demand Trends

11. Recent Demand Trends

12. Demand Forecast

13. Generating Capacity - Statewide

14. Generating Capacity - Downstate New York City Long Island

15. Proposed Additions MW totals of projects that can use natural gas are greater than all the other projects combined * includes methane, wood, and solid waste

16. Natural Gas-Fueled Generation 2004-2011: • Natural gas-fueled generation grew 46% • Oil-fueled generation dropped 95% Gigawatt-Hours

17. Fuel and Power Costs

18. Demand and Power Costs

19. Aging Generation • 51% of US power generation is over 30 years old • 59% of NY power generation is over 30 years old

20. Aging Transmission • More than 40% of NY’s transmission will need replacement over the next 30 years • Estimated cost -- $25 billion

21. Transmission Congestion • Congestion concentrated on paths in • Mohawk Valley • Capital Region • Hudson Valley

22. Power Plant Emissions • Emission rates reduced • SO2 -- 86% • NOX -- 76 % • CO2 -- 36 %

23. Renewable Generation In 2011, 23.75% of NY’s power came from renewable resources -- up from 21% in 2010

24. Energy from Windpower In 2011, wind power projects produced 2,787 GWh – a 10% increase over 2010

25. The Future of Indian Point • To meet reliability requirements, replacement resources have to be in place prior to closure of Indian Point Energy Center • Due to existing transmission limitations, new generation, additional demand response, and limited transmission upgrades would likely be the potential solutions in near term • Over long-term -- whether Indian Point remains in service or not -- it may be prudent to pursue transmission system upgrades or expansion

26. Broader Regional Markets • Address “seams” between regional markets and grid operations • Collaborative effort - NYISO, PJM Interconnection, Midwest ISO, ISO-New England, Ontario’s Independent System Operator and Hydro Quebec

27. Interregional Planning • Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative • 25 electric system planning authorities in U.S. and Canada representing 95% of Eastern Interconnection • Grassroots effort to integrate local planning interconnection-wide

28. Conclusions • Harnessing the “shale gale” • Enhance coordination in the operation of the electric grid and gas pipeline systems • Evolve integrated electric and gas markets • Modernizing infrastructure • Consider value of upgrading vs. replacing in kind • Implement equitable cost allocation systems

29. Conclusions (continued) • Coordinating policies • Address cumulative effect of various initiatives • Accommodate time needed to make electric system changes • Use State Energy Plan as forum • Optimizing resources • Broader Regional Markets • Interregional Planning

30. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) is a not-for-profit corporation responsible for operating the state’s bulk electricity grid, administering New York’s competitive wholesale electricity markets, conducting comprehensive long-term planning for the state’s electric power system, and advancing the technological infrastructure of the electric system serving the Empire State. www.nyiso.com