香港經濟概況
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二零零六年二月二十二日 22 February 2006 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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香港經濟概況 Hong Kong economy’s overview. 二零零六年二月二十二日 22 February 2006. Economic performance. 9 quarters of above-trend growth Broad-based upturn Trade, financial and producer services, and tourism are the bright spots; but construction still weak

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二零零六年二月二十二日 22 February 2006

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22 february 2006

香港經濟概況

Hong Kong economy’s overview

二零零六年二月二十二日

22 February 2006


22 february 2006

Economic performance

  • 9 quarters of above-trend growth

  • Broad-based upturn

  • Trade, financial and producer services, and tourism are the bright spots; but construction still weak

  • Significant and broad-based job creation; wages improving gradually

  • Inflation creeping up but still low


22 february 2006

Spectacular GDP growth all through 2005


22 february 2006

Double-digit export growth for 3 years in a row


22 february 2006

Domestic demand also played a role in recovery


22 february 2006

GDP growth led by trading and financial/professional services


Broad based improvement in labour market

Broad-based improvement in labour market

  • Unemployment down in all sectors, for all age groups and at all levels of education attainment

  • Long-term unemployment declining

  • Wages rising back; earnings of lower-income families also improving


22 february 2006

Some 240 000 jobs created since 2003 trough


22 february 2006

Both unemployment rate and

unemployment CSSA cases are falling


22 february 2006

Labour income rising back


22 february 2006

Workers earning $5,000 – $8,999 down markedly …

while those earning $15,000 or more rose


22 february 2006

2006 Economic outlook

  • GDP growth to settle back to more sustainable growth of 4 - 5%, still above past 10-year trend of 3.9%

  • Another year of broad-based growth

  • But risks from external environment and feed-through of higher interest rates

  • Labour market to improve further

  • Inflation edging up but still healthy


22 february 2006

Economy set for still solid growth in 2006


22 february 2006

Inflation creeping up but still low in 2006


Structural issues in labour market

Structural issues in labour market


Structural unemployment holding back the improvement in unemployment rate

Structural unemployment holding back the improvement in unemployment rate?


22 february 2006

Current pace of employment creation actually stronger than those in the past

(Time path of total employment in current upturn

cf an average economic cycle in 80s and 90s)


22 february 2006

Long-term unemployment rate falling in all age groups


22 february 2006

…. and improving even for those with lower education


22 february 2006

Why unemployment still so high ?


Construction still on distinct downtrend despite strong economic recovery

Construction still on distinct downtrend despite strong economic recovery


Also consumer demand has yet to fully recover

Also, consumer demand has yet to fully recover


22 february 2006

Result is GDP still way below trend growth experienced before the AFC


22 february 2006

Still cyclical unemployment in overall terms


22 february 2006

But labour force actually adjusting well to structural changes


22 february 2006

Today, one out of three people in the workforce working at the managerial, professional or administrative level

(*)Excluding FDH workers


Increasing number of workers having tertiary education

Increasing number of workers having tertiary education

(*)Excluding FDH workers


Value added per service sector job on avg 60 higher than manufacturing

Value added per person

1994

2004

(’000)

(’000)

Manufacturing

190

248

Services

381

398

W/R, I/E and R/H

241

304

Transport, storage and communication

272

362

Financing, insurance, real estate and business services

781

551

Community, social and personal services

279

303

Economy average

343

379

Value-added per service sector job on avg 60% higher than manufacturing


22 february 2006

The rising share of services in HK’s economy


22 february 2006

Remarkable productivity track record


22 february 2006

謝謝

Thank You


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