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Knowledge Management for UEFA Champions League. By Harsha Gunnam Hetal Mehta Nargis Memon Manish Wadhwa. Individual Contributions. Objectives. Basic Findings. Interesting Findings. Conclusion. Future Work. Process. Sources. Introduction. Agenda. Objectives. Basic Findings.

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Knowledge Management forUEFA Champions League

By

Harsha Gunnam

Hetal Mehta

Nargis Memon

Manish Wadhwa


Individual Contributions

Objectives

Basic Findings

Interesting Findings

Conclusion

Future Work

Process

Sources

Introduction


Agenda

Objectives

Basic Findings

Interesting Findings

Conclusion

Future Work

Process

Sources

Introduction


Introduction

Objectives

Basic Findings

Interesting Findings

Conclusion

Future Work

Process

Sources

Introduction

  • UEFA - The governing body of football on the continent of Europe

  • Champions League –

    • Started in 1992

    • Most Prestigious Trophy in the Sport

    • Current Champion: AC Milan

  • Format –


Research Objectives

Objectives

Basic Findings

Interesting Findings

Conclusion

Future Work

Process

Sources

Introduction


Literature Review

Objectives

Basic Findings

Interesting Findings

Conclusion

Future Work

Process

Sources

Introduction

  • Papahristodoulou, Christos, "Team Performance in UEFA Champions League 2005-06." Munich Personal RePEc Archive (2006) Unpublished, Paper #138

  • Barros, Carlos Pestana, Leach, Stephanie, “Performance evaluation of the English Premier Football League with data envelopment analysis.” Applied Economics Vol. 38 No. 12 (2006): 1449-1458

  • http://www.betinf.com/champ.htm

    • Sports Betting Information

  • http://www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/uefa-champions-league/

    • Online Betting Guide

  • http://en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/

    • Online Predictor Game


Research Design

Objectives

Basic Findings

Interesting Findings

Conclusion

Future Work

Process

Sources

Introduction

Coefficient Analysis

UEFA Data Source

Head-to-Head Probability

MySQL

RankingAnalysis

Data Extraction

Array of Winners

Top 3 Leagues

Excel

Home & Away Advantage

Top 12 Teams


Data Sources

Objectives

Basic Findings

Interesting Findings

Conclusion

Future Work

Process

Sources

Introduction

  • UEFA Data Source

    • http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/

  • Data collected over 6 seasons

    • 2002-2008

  • Attributes -


  • Basic Findings

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    Coefficient Analysis


    Coefficient Analysis

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    • Standard UEFA Calculations

    • Country Coefficient = Number of Points/Number of Teams

    • Calculation Accuracy: 100%

    • Team Coefficient = Number of Points + 33% of Country Coefficient

    • Calculation Accuracy: 100%


    Basic Findings

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    Ranking Analysis


    Predicted Ranking

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    • Accuracy: 100%

    • Years Considered: 2003-2008

    • Country Ranking = Summation of 5 years of Country Coefficients

    • Team Ranking = Summation of 5 years of Team Coefficients


    Ranking Analysis - Leagues

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    • Observations:

      • Spain, England and Italy: Top three leagues for the past six seasons

      • Romania: Rapid Improvement


    Top Leagues & Teams

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction


    Ranking Analysis - Teams

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    • Observations:

      • Consistent Team: FC Barcelona

      • Rapid Improvement: Chelsea


    Interesting Findings

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    Probability Analysis


    Head-to-Head Probability Analysis

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    • Technique:

      • Naive Bayes

    • Observations:

      • Strength: 6 Teams

      • Weakness: FC Barcelona


    Head-to-Head Probability Testing

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    • Technique:

      • Comparison of the signs of the difference between the win probability and the lose probability

      • Matched signs – Correct Prediction

      • Different signs – Incorrect Prediction

    • Assumption

      • Difference of zero (win-loss) favors both ways

    • Accuracy: 80%


    Interesting Findings

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    Home-Away Analysis


    Home – Away Analysis

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    • Technique:

      • Mapped advantage on the basis of strength.

      • Strength level decided by the difference in goals scored

        • Very Strong – Win with a difference of 2 or more goals

        • Strong – Win with a difference of 1 goal

        • Weak – Draw or lose with a difference of 1 goal

        • Very Weak – Lose with a difference of 2 or more goals


    Home – Away Analysis

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    • Observations:

      • Strongest Home Team: AC Milan

      • Weakest Home Team: Real Madrid

      • Strongest Visiting Team: Liverpool

      • Weakest Visiting Team: Chelsea


    Interesting Findings

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    Winners Analysis


    Prediction of Winners

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    • Technique:

      • Assigned values to strength levels

      • Aggregated the values of the strength levels

      • Team Win Probability = (Aggregated Strength Value * Probability) / Number of Matches


    Testing of Final Prediction

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    • Dataset considered – 2003-2007

    • Accuracy:

      • Home Win: 90%

      • Away Win: 100%


    Conclusion

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction


    Applications & Future Work

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    Applications

    Future Work


    References

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Future Work

    Conclusion

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    • Papahristodoulou, Christos, "Team Performance in UEFA Champions League 2005-06." Munich Personal RePEc Archive (2006) Unpublished, Paper #138

    • Barros, Carlos Pestana, Leach, Stephanie, “Performance evaluation of the English Premier Football League with data envelopment analysis.” Applied Economics Vol. 38 No. 12 (2006): 1449-1458

    • Websites:

      • http://www.betinf.com/champ.htm

      • http://www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/uefa-champions-league/

      • http://en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/

      • http://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/index.html

      • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uefa_Champions_League

      • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_theorem

      • http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/

      • http://www.soccerbase.com/

      • http://europeancups.altervista.org/


    Thank You

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Future Work

    Conclusion

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    Thank You

    Dr. Hsinchun Chen

    Yulei Zhang (Gavin)

    Yan Dang (Mandy)


    Questions

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Future Work

    Conclusion

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction


    Head-to-Head Probability Analysis

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction


    Head-to-Head Probability Analysis

    Objectives

    Basic Findings

    Interesting Findings

    Conclusion

    Future Work

    Process

    Sources

    Introduction

    FC Barcelona Vs Others

    Liverpool Vs Others


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