THE AERONAUTICAL METEOROLOGY PROGRAMME: Supporting Members in a changing environment

1. THE AERONAUTICAL METEOROLOGY PROGRAMME:Supporting Members in a changing environment Dr. Herbert Puempel C/AEM Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

2. Issues • Importance of Aeronautical Meteorology • Training • Cost Recovery • Quality Management • WAFS • AMDAR • New Structure of CAeM Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

3. Importance ofAeronautical Meteorology • Major activity of most NMHSs • Significant source of non-governmental funding • Including support for basic system • Customer demands for quality and productivity • Globalisation of en-route planning information • Key roles of NMHS: • Terminal area observations and forecasts • Warnings • Customer servicing (including value added) • Continuing need for support from WMO. Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

4. Training • Needed to remain current in techniques and science • Appreciation for Members hosting events • In future, very limited resources for financing face-to-face training • Aeronautical meteorology supplement No 1 to WMO-No. 258 • Expert Team on Training and Education established web site athttp://www.caem.wmo.intwith training material. Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

5. http://www.caem.wmo.int Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

6. Cost Recovery • New ICAO Doc. 9161 • WMO guidance being updated by Expert Team • will include case studies • Expert Team meeting planned to finalize guidance • Instrumental to finance training, capacity building, innovation • Support from WMO and ICAO in difficult cases Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

7. WAFS • Final phase was implemented as of 1 July 2005 • Wind/Temp charts removed from satellite broadcasts • SIGWX available from FTP server, including standard “PNG” graphics format • ISCS and SADIS broadcasts • Need to replace workstations, VSAT (TCP/IP) • Trust fund established for reception of data by most appropriate means • ISCS and SADIS include OPMET data • Request from ICAO to keep airport lists up to date. Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

8. Quality Management • Very successful QM seminars in • Hong Kong Dec 2005 • Nairobi May 2006 • Will become ICAO Standard , so prerequisite for Cost Recovery • Joint ICAO/WMO guidance in WMO No.1001 Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

9. AMDAR • AMDAR Panel • New successful regional programmesSouthern Africa/Asia • Migration to WWW • See also 7.4(2) • Typically 220,000 reportsper day • Humidity sensors (WVSS-II) • Progress continues. Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

10. AeM Operating PlanProposed Key Activity Areas • Provide access to training • Facilitate good relationships with aviation customers and partners • Assist in planning for future aviation meteorological services • Collaborate with ICAO on the design and assessment of a new terminal weather forecast • Participate in cross-cutting activities and other constituent bodies of WMO • Ensure that WMO Members’ interests are represented in ICAO groups • Survey Members’ capabilities. Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

11. New CAeM Structure Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

12. Lessons learned from CAeM-XIII andTechnical Conference • CAeM-XIII in Geneva 23 Nov to 1 Dec 2006 • Preceded by two day Technical Conference 21/22 Nov 2006 • How Can We Better Meet the Current and Future Needs of Aviation? Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

13. Scientific Challenges: • New terminal Forecasts: • Tailor-made for planning OPS and ATM • Enhanced use of probabilities • Thresholds and contents closely agreed with users • Blending of NWP, radar&satellite interpretation &extrapolation, sensor networks Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

14. New Terminal Forecasts • Phenomena to be covered: • Convection • Wind shear • Wind changes affecting runway selection • Strong precipitation • Snow and ice • Sand and dust • Low visibility and ceiling Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

15. Widening the scope: • Consider new space scale of « corner posts » or terminal manovering area • Consider accuracy requirements for different lead times and decisions • Joint analysis of decision making processes (« Collaborative Decision making ») • Sensitivity studies Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

16. En-route phenomena • Forecasts and Warnings • Interpretation of NWP output (algorithms and statistical methods) • Interpretation of satellite and radar information • Information from surface network • Airspace structure and distribution of responsibility Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

17. Convection and related hazards • Deep convection affecting airways • Interaction with upper level flow (Turbulence) • Avoidance and penetration • Information update rates • 4-D considerations • Alternate Situation Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

18. In-Flight Icing • Continues to pose problems for • Prolonged holdings • Commuter flights • Power setting • ETOPS Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

19. Icing Impacts • 30 fatalities and 14 injuries occur annually in the U.S. Numbers likely similar for Canada. • $96 million in personal injury and aircraft damage each year in U.S. (No Cdn numbers) (Roselawn accident $195 million in personal injury and aircraft damages) • Majority of accidents (20 of 24 per year) in General Aviation in U.S. ($82 million of $96 million) Inflight Icing Benefits Analysis: Historical Overview MCR Federal Inc Report for FAA, November 99 Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

20. Warnings based on current conditions • Radiosonde ascents: - 8 d Curve • PIREPS • Freezing drizzle observations • Disdrometric measurements • Satellite and Radar data Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

21. Drizzle Initiation in Stratiform Clouds Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing Korolev, A. and G.A. Isaac, 2000: Drop growth due to high supersaturation caused by isobaric mixing. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 1675-1685.

22. Phase Versus Temperature Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

23. Turbulence • Effects of non-stationary, micro-scale movements on the aircraft • CAT : Modelling aspects • Parametric methods • Scale interaction • Use of TKE Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

24. Banding Along Subtropical Jet Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

25. Extreme Turbulence Scenario • Environmental conditions: • Strong jet intersects: • Cold front with: • Low top convection • Extreme turbulence possible over and downwind from convection Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

26. Volcanic Ash, Dust-and Sandstorms • IAVWOPS-Group of ICAO: Monitoring, SIGMETS • Dust-and Sandstorms: Warnings source information from dedicated web-sites ( • China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing, China: http://www.sds.cma.gov.cn • Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, USA: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol/index_shortcuts.html • University of Colorado, Boulder, USA: • http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/carma_web_page/daily_forecast_products.html • NIES, Japan :http://www-cfors.nies.go.jp/~cfors/index-j.html • Barcelona Supercomputer Center, Spain: http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM/ • University of Athens, Athens, Greece :http://forecast.uoa.gr/dustindx.html • ………………….) • Asian brown clouds, fires etf: Visibility! • Sand and Ash: Damage to engines! Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

27. Aviation and Disaster Prevention / Mitigation • Pilot Project on Tropical Storm Early Warnings for Aviation in Region II (Hong Kong China) • ICAO Special Implementation Project for Small Island Developing States in Asia/Pacific Region • Hardening of Infrastructure • Emergency Preparedness Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

28. Aviation and Environment • Cooperation with Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) • Efficiency gains through improved operational use of met information • Growth rates worrying –emissions trading? • Local Air Quality – Need for pollution forecasts? Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing

29. Thank You Aviation Meteorology Seminar, Beijing