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Southeast Climate Consortium

Southeast Climate Consortium. Southeast Climate Consortium. Members. SECC : Funding Support. National Oceanic-Atmospheric Administration. USDA Risk Management Agency. USDA Cooperative State Research, Extension and Education Service. Southeast Climate Consortium.

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Southeast Climate Consortium

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  1. Southeast Climate Consortium

  2. Southeast Climate Consortium Members

  3. SECC : Funding Support National Oceanic-Atmospheric Administration USDA Risk Management Agency USDA Cooperative State Research, Extension and Education Service

  4. Southeast Climate Consortium • Mission:To use advances in climate sciences, including improved capabilities to forecast seasonal climate, to provide scientifically sound information and decision support tools for agriculture, forestry, and water resources management in the Southeastern USA.

  5. University of Georgia • Gerrit Hoogenboom • David Stooksbury • Joel Paz • Carla Roncoli • Pam Knox • Axel Garcia y Garcia • Pierre Marchant • Rabiu Olatinwo • Tomas Persson

  6. UGA Activities • Climate • Extension and Impact Assessment • Crop modeling • Decision support tools • Water resources • Pests and diseases • Corn ethanol net energy value

  7. 2-3 months Inter-annual Decadal Climate Variability Several decades 50+ years Centuries Climate Change

  8. Changing Ocean Temperature Impacts our climate here in the U.S. and across the globe Image courtesy of NOAA Earth Science Laboratory

  9. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) • El Niño is one phase of an oscillation in ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the eastern Pacific Ocean that can steer weather systems in the southeastern US and elsewhere. • El Niño is considered the warm phase of the oscillation. • La Niña (sometimes known as El Viejo) is the opposite atmospheric pattern from El Niño.

  10. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) • El Niño is one phase of an oscillation in ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the eastern Pacific Ocean that can steer weather systems in the southeastern US and elsewhere. • El Niño is considered the warm phase of the oscillation. • La Niña (sometimes known as El Viejo) is the opposite atmospheric pattern from El Niño.

  11. Sea Surface Temperatures: Equatorial Pacific Ocean Normal conditions El Niño La Niña Source: Climate Research Unit

  12. ENSO Impacts in the Southeast • EL Niño • Very wet winter and spring • Greatly reduces Atlantic • hurricanes • Decreases tornadoes in • the tornado alley • La Niña • Dry Fall, Winter, and Spring • Greatly increases Atlantic • hurricanes • Increases tornadoes in • the deep south • Greatly increases wildfire • risks Neutral ENSO phase increases the risk of severe freezes by 3:1 odds.

  13. Management Decisions • Variety selection • Planting dates • Acreage allocation • Amount and type of crop insurance • Marketing • Purchase inputs

  14. Analysis of HistoricalWeather Data Year: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 …

  15. Analysis of HistoricalWeather Data Year: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 … Neutral El Niño La Niña

  16. El Niño La Niña El Niño Neutral La Niña Location Shift

  17. Regional Crop Yield Map

  18. AgClimate WebsiteApplications

  19. AgClimate Tools

  20. AgClimate Tools Yield based on climate forecast, planting date, and soil type.

  21. Simulated Crop Yield Irrigated

  22. Simulated Crop Yield Rainfed

  23. Simulated Crop Yield La Niña Select 2 or more planting dates

  24. Simulated Crop Yield El Niño

  25. Simulated Crop Yield

  26. Simulated Crop Yield Tattnall County • Select 1 planting date • Compare ENSO phases

  27. Simulated Crop Yield

  28. County Yield Database Use National Ag. Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Yields

  29. County Yield Database

  30. AgClimate Website http://www.agclimate.org

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