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Growth Energy 16 th March 2010

Growth Energy 16 th March 2010. Accenture have published 2 Biofuels Studies & recently launched a third report on disruptive technologies. Disruptive Technologies in Transport Fuels – launch October 2009.

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Growth Energy 16 th March 2010

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  1. Growth Energy16th March 2010

  2. Accenture have published 2 Biofuels Studies & recently launched a third report on disruptive technologies Disruptive Technologies in Transport Fuels – launch October 2009 • Accenture Point of View on the current state and future evolution of the Biofuels supply market • Feedstocks. Compared 1st generation feedstocks • Markets. Reviewed regulation and domestic agenda of 20 markets • Producers. Review market structure- players evolving • Outlook on evolution of Biofuels supply market • Interviews w/ regulators and producers 2006-07 2007-08 2009 • Accenture Point of View on challenges of demand, infrastructure and technology • Consumers – B2B, food vs. fuel, LUC • OEMs • Supply Chain and distribution (IOCs, NOCs) • Infrastructure • Risk Management • Competing and Supporting Technologies • Case studies- Africa, China, Brazil, EU, US, LCFS, PHEV • Interviews w/ Steven Chu, regulators and B2B consumers • Accenture Point of View on disruptive technologies in transport fuels and their potential impact on the current assumptions around supply and demand • ~7 out of 12 technology sections are biofuels (blow out of supporting and competing technologies) • ~ 40-50 companies interviewed, but 25 case studies across the technologies • 10 markets

  3. Our most recent report focused on disruptive technologies, the companies and the markets 12 Technologies 25 Companies 10 Markets • Evolution • Next generation internal combustion engine • Next generation agriculture • Waste to fuel • Marine scrubbers • Revolution • Sugar to diesel • Butanol • Biocrude • Algae • Aviation biofuels • Game Changer • PHEV engines and batteries • Charging • Vehicle to Grid

  4. Markets will continue to optimize around their own domestic agenda, resources, and economics Key

  5. China is hedging its bets, but biofuels are seen as a key transport fuel technology • Biofuels expected to meet 15% of all transport needs by 2020 (2% today) • Sustainability continues to influence selection • Higher prices and continued volatility • Government subsidies to cover potential losses due to feedstock costs • Diversity and new underutilised feedstocks • More sugarcane • 60 million tons sweet sorghum straw per year • 20 million tons cassava • Cellulosic . Billion Litres

  6. Biodiesel is king in Europe, with sustainability and climate change the driving forces • Biofuel constituted a 3% share of transport fuel in 2008 • Biodiesel represents nearly 80% of total share • France is well balanced in biofuel supply, capacity and demand • Germany is world’s largest biodiesel consumer, with significant excess capacity • Auto manufacturers in France are very keen on electrification • Next generation ICE is very important for Germany • UK is not a significant producer and has high hopes for both biofuels and electrification Billion Litres France Germany UK

  7. Africa has a great deal of potential and biofuels can offer Africa huge opportunities • Potential driven by: • Tropical climate • Vast arable land • Large workforce • Location close to energy markets of EU • Benefits include: • Rural development benefits • Energy provision • Employment • Economic development • Animal feed supply • Challenges • Infrastructure • Political will • Crop yields / production methods

  8. Irrespective of market, the trajectory of supply, demand and GHG footprint of transport fuels is being reshaped Evolution is cumulative, new technologies are added but existing ones continue to be improved

  9. Biofuels has strong potential: Technology evolves - 1st Gen can stretch & is key to paving the way for 2nd Gen The improvement potential of many existing technologies is underestimated • Increasing yields without increasing land use. • Rewarding improvements in water and energy use • Supporting the use of waste (MSW and Agri) to create energy or fuel. • Custom application of novel technologies (e.g. synthetic biology) for multiple, differing processes • Maximising the opportunity to leverage existing assets (e.g. retrofit, co-production) • Combining biochemical and thermochemical processes • Recognising that technologies or practices can be leveraged across multiple pathways (e.g. pre-treatment) Source: Ceres, Monsanto/Doane Forecast POET’s Project Liberty – Emmetsburg, Iowa

  10. Electrification heralds two key players in transport fuels—utilities and battery manufacturers Many Diverse Players across the Electrification Value Chain Generation Distribution Retail Plug - in Battery Charging Comms Billing Generation Smart Grid Electric storage Infrastructure Infrastructure System Vehicles • A123 Systems • Coulomb Technologies • Tesla Motors • Coulomb Technologies • LG Chem • GridPoint • Th!nk • GridPoint • NEC • Nu Element • G - Wiz • Nu Element • ECOtality • Duracar • ECOtality Utilities Utilities Utilities Municipalities • More than 15 pilots in 14 countries testing • Capabilities • Roles of different players • Infrastructure requirements • Technology • Regulation and market models • Different combination of players in each pilot • Different elements of the electrification value chain • Different operating models

  11. The electrification consortiums are coordinated and powerful • Leveraging close link between governments and utilities • Recipients of significant stimulus in US, EU and China • Stressing both energy security and green objectives • Alliance between utilities and high tech (batteries and software) is powerful • Industries delivering competing technologies- eg. biofuels, integrated oil on carbon and gas, are not aligned Electrification Roadmap (Electrification Coalition) • “By 2040, 75% of the vehicle miles traveled in the US should be electric miles” • Members: Cisco, Aerovironment, Gridpoint, NRG Energy, Coda Automotive, PG&E, Rockwood Holdings, Nissan, Kleiner Perkins, Colulomb Technologies, Johnson Controls-Saft, Bright Automotive, Fedex, A123 Systems

  12. Ongoing Close to government and policy makers Execution––project management excellence, supply chain optimization Contracting and risk management Market-specific strategy NEW Place scientists and engineers in leadership positions Partnering and business model flexibility Know how active tracking of the market will change baseline assumptions Strategies to secure long-term and flexible capital Actions for high performance

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