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Emergency preparedness: community-based short-term eruption forecasting at Campi Flegrei

EGU General Assembly. EGU2010-10413. Emergency preparedness: community-based short-term eruption forecasting at Campi Flegrei J. Selva , W. Marzocchi , P. Papale , L. Civetta , E. del Pezzo. INGV-DPC Project UNREST. Vienna, 05/05/2010. INTRO. Emergency Preparedness

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Emergency preparedness: community-based short-term eruption forecasting at Campi Flegrei

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  1. EGU General Assembly EGU2010-10413 Emergency preparedness: community-based short-term eruption forecasting at CampiFlegrei J. Selva, W. Marzocchi, P. Papale, L. Civetta, E. del Pezzo INGV-DPC Project UNREST Vienna, 05/05/2010

  2. INTRO Emergency Preparedness definition in advance of tools to assist decision makers • Short-term eruption forecasting keys: • to recognize anomalous signals and relate them to physical processes • ELICITATIONS • to assign probability values • STATISTICAL MODEL • 3. to quickly provide answers to unexpected phenomena • TRAINED COMMUNITY • ONLINE TOOLS

  3. INTRO VOLCANOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE STATISTICAL MODELS different interpretations different expertise big community expert on volcanic process ≠ expert in statistics INDERECT ELICITATIONS the community of experts set the parameters of the statistical model + STATISTICAL MODEL FORECASTING TOOL VOLC. COMMUNITY must be community based must be quickly reviewable = FORECASTING TOOL

  4. BET_EF Statistical model: Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF)

  5. BET_EF MAGMATIC UNREST VENT LOCATION ERUPTION SIZE UNREST ERUPTION NODE 2 NODE 4 NODE 5 NODE 1 NODE 3 magma no magma loc #1 loc #2 … loc #700 lava dome small expl. medium expl. large expl. unrest no unrest eruption no eruption • NODE 1-2-3 • identification of anomalies indicating each “event” (node) • definition of the “state of anomaly” through thresholds • evaluation of the probability at node from the “state of anomaly” of all informative parameters

  6. BET_EF PARAMETERS THRESHOLD 2 THRESHOLD 1 Anomaly: z Information: wz Probability: 1 - e-S{wz} MODEL BACKGROUND Gray Area ANOMALY measure

  7. ELICITATIONS Volcanological interpretation: setting BET_EF through repeated elicitations

  8. ELICITATIONS DELPHI METHOD • structured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts, facilitating the formation of a group judgement: • structured information flows • feedback of participants • anonymity of participants GOAL: AGREED GROUP OPINION EXPERT GROUP • 30 researchers within 2 projects from 2005 • 5 elicitations sessions • scores of experts reflecting their consideration within the group • consensus is formed during general discussions • pre-eruptive node and tools • group of experts trained to ET and elicitation procedures

  9. ELICITATIONS COMMUNITY-FORMING PROCESS Pre-elicitation meetings (seminars, meetings, internet forum): statistical model, tools for the elicitation, discussions on the monitoring network, studies/models (cross-feedback), interpretations (consensus-seeking) Elicitation sessions: physical meetings --> internet session score the other experts, selection of parameters and thresholds Post-elicitation meetings (moderated discussions sessions): consequence of choices and performance of the model, general discussions on single parameters, measures and definitions, etc.

  10. ELICITATIONS ONLINE ELICITATION – http://bet.bo.ingv.it/elicitazione/elicitations.html • DURING ELICITATION • Predefined lists of experts and parameters • Online forms to • selected parameters • assign thresholds • vote the other experts • Online forum • ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS • Automatic analysis • Stability check through differentiated statistical analyses • Automatic publication of results

  11. RESULTS Results for CampiFlegrei (project INGV-DPC UNREST)

  12. RESULTS LEGENDA: Boolean parameters are represented by “YES” “Gray areas” correspond to variable probability of being in the adjacent states, depending on the measured values

  13. RESULTS

  14. RESULTS

  15. RESULTS

  16. RESULTS

  17. RESULTS Seismicity: Highest sensitivity Deformation: Macroscopic changes Gases: Macroscopic changes In Favour of Seismicity: Longest sesmic record and experience, exceptional sequence largely documented in 1982-84, more developed network, rapidity of information, effective higher sensitivity, … Against Deformation and Gases: Interpretations too model-dependent, many contrasting interpretations, large control of hydrothermal system, delayed gas-related signals, …

  18. RESULTS • SUMMARY • Statistical model (BET_EF) and volcanological interpretation are kept separated: • separate validations are possible • experts asked for volcanological interpretationonly • an automatic and easily reviewable tool for eruption forecasting is set • The 5 yrs long elicitation process provided • a global picture of the confidence on the various volc. interpretations • clues to guide future implementations in the monitoring network and research investments • trained a community of experts to quickly answer to crises

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