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Environmental Policy

P. Brian Fisher CofC : POLS 307 Climate Change. Environmental Policy. Global Warming. Global Mean Temp: 0.74°C (1.33°F) increase in average global surface temperature in the past century.

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Environmental Policy

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  1. P. Brian Fisher CofC: POLS 307 Climate Change Environmental Policy

  2. Global Warming • Global Mean Temp: 0.74°C (1.33°F) increase in average global surface temperature in the past century. • Rate Increase: The rate of this increased warming has accelerated as the warming over the last fifty years is 0.13°C, almost double for the previous 50 years, and this rate has increased to 0.17°C per decade in the last twenty-five years. • Eleven of the last twelve years (1995–2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature9 (since 1850).

  3. Projected Increases in Global Temperature

  4. Global Effects from GCC • Ice Melt/Deglaciation • Rising sea levels (ice melt, increase in water) • Changes in extremes of temperature • Salination of Water and Soil • Increase in Extreme weather (storm surges, precipitation, hurricane/cyclone intensity) • Changes in Wind patterns and intensity • Wind and SLR lead to coastal erosion • Droughts and flooding • Increase in Ocean temperature • Increase in insects (particularly mosquitoes) • Changes to growing seasons

  5. Anthropogenic Climate Change Fingerprint-modeling of global surface temperature change (Adapted from Meehl et al. 2004). (A) Model results with all forcings included. The combined forcings provided the best match to the fingerprint of climate change in the observed record. (B) Natural forcings alone explained much of the temperature change in the first half of the century. (C) Man-made forcings strongly dominated the temperature change after 1975. Note: The 20th C warming trend at the earth’s surface progressed in a distinct pattern, with a large warming during 1910-1940, moderate cooling during 1940-1975, and a large warming from 1975 to today.

  6. Findings, IPCC (2007) The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2007 (385 ppm) exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm).

  7. Figure 4 Barnola et al.

  8. Total GHG Emissions Annually(2005)

  9. CO2 Emissions’ Projections(2009-2025)

  10. Key Findings – GCC(Global Climate Impacts in the US) 1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced. Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. 2. Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow. Climate-related changes are already observed in the United States and its coastal waters. These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons, lengthening ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt, and alterations in river flows. These changes are projected to grow. 3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. 4. Climate change will stress water resources. Water is an issue in every region, but the nature of the potential impacts varies. Drought, related to reduced precipitation, increased evaporation, and increased water loss from plants, is an important issue in many regions, especially in the West. Floods and water quality problems are likely to be amplified by climate change in most regions. Declines in mountain snowpack are important in the West and Alaska where snowpack provides vital natural water storage. 5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. Many crops show positive responses to elevated carbon dioxide and low levels of warming, but higher levels of warming often negatively affect growth and yields. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production.

  11. Key Findings – GCC (cont’d) 6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge. Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk of erosion and flooding, especially along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, Pacific Islands, and parts of Alaska. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. 7. Risks to human health will increase. Harmful health impacts of climate change are related to increasing heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Reduced cold stress provides some benefits. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. 8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses. Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. 9. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems. There are a variety of thresholds in the climate system and ecosystems. These thresholds determine, for example, the presence of sea ice and permafrost, and the survival of species, from fish to insect pests, with implications for society. With further climate change, the crossing of additional thresholds is expected. 10. Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today. The amount and rate of future climate change depend primarily on current and future human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases and airborne particles. Responses involve reducing emissions to limit future warming, and adapting to the changes that are unavoidable

  12. UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol • UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change • US signed and ratified • Core framework int’l agr on GCC • Kyoto Protocol • Addendum to UNFCCC • US signed but no ratification (only major nation) • Calls for developed countries to limit their GHG emissions by certain dates. • Full compliance would “only make a small dent in the world’s ever-increasing output of GHGs.” (RG)

  13. Copenhagen Accord • Non binding agreement signed between major GHG emitters in Dec 2009 in Copenhagen • UN has renounced the document (based on pressure from the developing countries) • Goal: recognizes "the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2°C", in a context of sustainable development, to combat climate change. • Mitigation: developed countries (Annex I Parties) would "commit to economy-wide emissions targets for 2020" to be submitted by 31 January 2010 and agrees that these Parties to the Kyoto Protocol would strengthen their existing targets. • Adaptation: Agrees a "goal" for the world to raise $100 billion per year by 2020, from "a wide variety of sources", to help developing countries cut carbon emissions (mitigation).

  14. Climate Injustice Uganda’s President YoweriMuseveni has called climate change “an act of aggression by the rich against the poor.”

  15. Climate Policy • New US election cycle  not much mvmt on climate and Obama has removed the climate bill • Cap and Trade: Place caps on national GHG emissions and actors/industry/corps have to buy permits to produce certain amt of GHGs. If they go over they have to trade with actors under their allotment. • Global and domestic approaches • Public Op has receded on whether climate change is human induced, AND to take significant action (in last 2 years) • Enforcing Global Agreements (UNFCCC & Kyoto)  Cancun deadend? • States/cities taking lead • CC commissions • Action Plans • Performance stnds on electricity and vehicles • GHG reporting and auditing • Legal/Policy Action: • EPA v. Mass (2007)—GHG are a “pollutant” to be regulated by the EPA • State (e.g. California) new rules/laws governing clean energy, fuel stnds, etc that affect climate

  16. Massachusetts v. US EPA (2007) • In 2003 (Bush), the EPA made two determinations: • 1. the EPA lacked authority under the Clean Air Act to regulate carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) • 2. even if the EPA did have such authority, it would not use it. • Petitioners were States: MA, CA, NY, etc, cities: Balt, DC, & NYC, and Enviro Groups; Respondents were EPA, States: TX, OH, AS, etc. and Auto/Truck Groups • Holding: • Petitioners had standing: Only 1 plaintiff needs to meet standing, MA did b/c of future SLR • the CAA does give the US EPA authority to regulate tailpipe emissions of GHGs, and • its current rationale for not regulating was found to be inadequate, and the agency must articulate a reasonable basis in order to avoid regulation. Sup Ct determined that to NOT regulate GHGs would be “arbitrary, capricious and not in accordance with the law” • In addition, the majority report commented that "greenhouse gases fit well within the Clean Air Act’s capacious definition of air pollutant.” • Dissent (Scalia): No standing, but regardless, EPA should not be made to regulate, they have the right to “defer” and should be based on “Chevron Deference”

  17. Chevron v. NDRC (1984) • Established “Chevron Deference” • Legal test for determining whether to grant deference to a government agency's interpretation of its own statutory mandate • Holding: Courts must defer to administrative agency interpretations of the authority granted to them by Congress: • (1) where the grant of authority was ambiguous and • (2) where the interpretation was reasonable or permissible.

  18. Vids • UCLA LAW: Mass v. EPA (5m) • EPA Response (Stephen Johnson) in Congress Hearing (8m)

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