Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998
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Anticipating the Future of Higher Education. Presenter: James L. Morrison Date: March 16, 1998. SCT SUMMIT ’98. Session number / Page 1. Introduction. Objectives: What are the signals of change that will affect higher education in the 21st Century? How can we respond?

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Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

Anticipating the Future of Higher Education

Presenter: James L. Morrison

Date: March 16, 1998

SCT SUMMIT ’98

Session number / Page 1


Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

Introduction

  • Objectives:

    • What are the signals of change that will affect higher education in the 21st Century?

    • How can we respond?

  • I will be your strategic intelligence officer


Strategic intelligence

Strategic Intelligence

  • Identify signals of change

  • Gather information

  • Evaluate information

  • Make decisions to shape the future


Agenda

Agenda

  • The tool: Environmental scanning

  • The analysis: Change drivers

  • The data: social, economic, technological

  • The implications


Change drivers

Change Drivers

  • The Maturation of America

  • The Mosaic Society

  • Globalization

  • Economic Restructuring

  • Information Technology


Older americans to experience fastest growth 1990 to 2000

Older Americans to Experience Fastest Growth (1990 to 2000)

Source: US. Bureau of the Census


Distribution of us population by race and origin 1900 2050

Distribution of US. Population by Race and Origin (1900-2050)

Source: Business Horizons


Immigration

Immigration

  • Between 1970 and 2000 New York City’s population will shift from 2/3 white to 1/3

  • In 1970, 5%of U.S. residents born elsewhere; in 1996, 10%

  • Top sources: Mexico, the Philippines, China, Cuba, India


The enrollment pipeline

The Enrollment Pipeline

High School Graduates, 1979-2004

(millions of students)

3.0

2.8

We Are Here!

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

2004

'79

'82

'85

'88

'91

'94

'97

'00

source: WICHE


An aging clientele for higher education

An Aging Clientele for Higher Education


Impact of continuing education for the workforce

Impact of Continuing Education for the Workforce

  • Tomorrow (2000)

  • 672 new campuses

  • 20 million new learners

  • $235b to build

  • $217b/year to operate

  • Today

  • 3613 institutions

  • 16 million students

  • $156b in operations

  • Workforce Statistics

  • 141 million workers

  • 1/7 require 7 credit equivalents/year

Source: Michael Dolence AACRAO 1997


Supply and demand

Supply and Demand

Demand for Education

L

e

a

r

n

e

r

s

Resources Available

Time


Implications

Implications

  • An increasingly diverse society

  • Increasing student enrollment

  • An aging student population

  • Concern about costs/productivity

  • A disparity between supply and demand


Economic

Economic

  • Globalization

  • Economic Restructuring

  • Downsizing


Globalization

Globalization

  • Movement of capital, products, technology, information continue at record pace

  • Global economy

    • Regional free trade

    • Multinational corporations

  • Economic competition increase

  • Must be able to function in a global economy for job success in the 21st century


Economic1

Economic

  • Continued organizational downsizing

    • corporate

    • governmental

    • educational

  • Virtual companies

  • Outsourcing

  • Increased number of home-based businesses

  • Responsibility-centered management


Percent of firms downsizing by business category

Percent of Firms Downsizing by Business Category

Source: Chicago Tribune, August 21, 1995


During the decade of the 80 s 46 of the companies listed in the fortune 500 disappeared

During the decade of the 80’s, 46% of the companies listed in the “Fortune 500” disappeared.


Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

The Department of Labor estimates that by the year 2000 at least 44% of all workers will be in data services (e.g., gathering, processing, retrieving, or analyzing information).


From 1980 to 1994 the u s contingent workforce temps self employed consultants increased 57

From 1980 to 1994, the U.S. contingent workforce—temps, self-employed, consultants—increased 57%


Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

Fading are the 9-5 workdays, lifetime jobs, predictable, hierarchical relationships, corporate culture security blankets, and, for a large and growing sector of the workforce, the workplace itself (replacedby a cybernetics “workspace”).


Constant training retraining job hopping and even career hopping will become the norm

Constant training, retraining, job-hopping, and even career-hopping will become the norm.


Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

Today, 65% of all workers use some type of information technology in their jobs. By 2000, this will increase to 95%.


Implications1

Implications

  • Globalization

  • Economic Restructuring


Technology

Technology


Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

Students can no longer prepare bark to calculate problems. They depend instead on expensive slates. What will they do when the slate is dropped and breaks?

Teacher’s Conference, 1703


Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

Students depend on paper too much. They no longer know how to write on a slate without getting dust all over themselves. What will happen when they run out of paper?

Principal’s Association Meeting, 1815


Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

Students depend too much upon ink. They no longer know how to use a knife to sharpen a pencil.

National Association of Teachers, 1907


Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

Students depend too much on store bought ink. They don’t know how to make their own. What will happen when they run out?

Rural American Teacher, 1928


Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

“You don’t turn it on. You open it and turn the pages.”


What lies ahead in technology

What Lies Ahead in Technology

  • Diminution

  • Simulations

  • Virtual Reality

  • WWW

  • Low-Earth-Orbit Satellites

  • Web TV

  • Net PC

  • Expert Systems


Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

The cost of computing power drops roughly 30% every year, and microchips are doubling in performance power every 18 months.


Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

You give the birthday kid a Saturn, made by Sega, the gamemaker. It runs on a higher-performance processor than the original 1976 Cray supercomputer.


Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

Today’s average consumers wear more computing power on their wrists than existed in the entire world before 1961.


Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

In 1991, companies spent more money on computing and communications gear than the combined monies spent on industrial, mining, farm, and construction equipment.


Presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

Today, 65% of all workers use some type of information technology in their jobs. By 2000, this will increase to 95%.


I very much doubt that we re the only family on the block without a web page

I very much doubt that we’re the only family on the block without a Web page.


Signals of change on the horizon

Signals of Change On the Horizon


Signals

Signals

  • Educational courses and programs are being produced by corporations

  • Cable and phone companies are consolidating to provide interactive multimedia programming


Signals1

Signals

  • A third of Americans have a computer in the home; 40% of these have modems

  • An increasing number of students want and need non-traditional, flexible schedules


Signals2

Signals

  • Certification monopoly at risk

    • employers concerned about competency

    • employers relying less on diplomas

  • Outcomes assessment coming on line--Western Governors University


Signals3

Signals

  • Job guarantee programs

    • Univ Miami engineering

    • St. John Fisher College

    • Univ Missouri-Rolla


Signals4

Signals

  • Transition from learned infrastructure to learning infrastructure

  • Transition from distance learning to distributed learning


Signals5

Signals

  • Cyber-Universities

    • 1993: 93

    • 1997: 762


Summary

Summary

  • “Every day seems to bring the dawn of a new era”

  • To anticipate the future, we must identify signals of change

  • To shape our future, we must interpret and act on these signals


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