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Anticipating the Future of Higher Education. Presenter: James L. Morrison Date: March 16, 1998. SCT SUMMIT ’98. Session number / Page 1. Introduction. Objectives: What are the signals of change that will affect higher education in the 21st Century? How can we respond?

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presenter james l morrison date march 16 1998

Anticipating the Future of Higher Education

Presenter: James L. Morrison

Date: March 16, 1998

SCT SUMMIT ’98

Session number / Page 1

slide2

Introduction

  • Objectives:
    • What are the signals of change that will affect higher education in the 21st Century?
    • How can we respond?
  • I will be your strategic intelligence officer
strategic intelligence
Strategic Intelligence
  • Identify signals of change
  • Gather information
  • Evaluate information
  • Make decisions to shape the future
agenda
Agenda
  • The tool: Environmental scanning
  • The analysis: Change drivers
  • The data: social, economic, technological
  • The implications
change drivers
Change Drivers
  • The Maturation of America
  • The Mosaic Society
  • Globalization
  • Economic Restructuring
  • Information Technology
distribution of us population by race and origin 1900 2050
Distribution of US. Population by Race and Origin (1900-2050)

Source: Business Horizons

immigration
Immigration
  • Between 1970 and 2000 New York City’s population will shift from 2/3 white to 1/3
  • In 1970, 5%of U.S. residents born elsewhere; in 1996, 10%
  • Top sources: Mexico, the Philippines, China, Cuba, India
the enrollment pipeline
The Enrollment Pipeline

High School Graduates, 1979-2004

(millions of students)

3.0

2.8

We Are Here!

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

2004

\'79

\'82

\'85

\'88

\'91

\'94

\'97

\'00

source: WICHE

impact of continuing education for the workforce
Impact of Continuing Education for the Workforce
  • Tomorrow (2000)
  • 672 new campuses
  • 20 million new learners
  • $235b to build
  • $217b/year to operate
  • Today
  • 3613 institutions
  • 16 million students
  • $156b in operations
  • Workforce Statistics
  • 141 million workers
  • 1/7 require 7 credit equivalents/year

Source: Michael Dolence AACRAO 1997

supply and demand
Supply and Demand

Demand for Education

L

e

a

r

n

e

r

s

Resources Available

Time

implications
Implications
  • An increasingly diverse society
  • Increasing student enrollment
  • An aging student population
  • Concern about costs/productivity
  • A disparity between supply and demand
economic
Economic
  • Globalization
  • Economic Restructuring
  • Downsizing
globalization
Globalization
  • Movement of capital, products, technology, information continue at record pace
  • Global economy
    • Regional free trade
    • Multinational corporations
  • Economic competition increase
  • Must be able to function in a global economy for job success in the 21st century
economic1
Economic
  • Continued organizational downsizing
    • corporate
    • governmental
    • educational
  • Virtual companies
  • Outsourcing
  • Increased number of home-based businesses
  • Responsibility-centered management
percent of firms downsizing by business category
Percent of Firms Downsizing by Business Category

Source: Chicago Tribune, August 21, 1995

slide19

The Department of Labor estimates that by the year 2000 at least 44% of all workers will be in data services (e.g., gathering, processing, retrieving, or analyzing information).

from 1980 to 1994 the u s contingent workforce temps self employed consultants increased 57

From 1980 to 1994, the U.S. contingent workforce—temps, self-employed, consultants—increased 57%

slide21

Fading are the 9-5 workdays, lifetime jobs, predictable, hierarchical relationships, corporate culture security blankets, and, for a large and growing sector of the workforce, the workplace itself (replacedby a cybernetics “workspace”).

constant training retraining job hopping and even career hopping will become the norm

Constant training, retraining, job-hopping, and even career-hopping will become the norm.

slide23

Today, 65% of all workers use some type of information technology in their jobs. By 2000, this will increase to 95%.

implications1
Implications
  • Globalization
  • Economic Restructuring
slide26
Students can no longer prepare bark to calculate problems. They depend instead on expensive slates. What will they do when the slate is dropped and breaks?

Teacher’s Conference, 1703

slide27
Students depend on paper too much. They no longer know how to write on a slate without getting dust all over themselves. What will happen when they run out of paper?

Principal’s Association Meeting, 1815

slide28
Students depend too much upon ink. They no longer know how to use a knife to sharpen a pencil.

National Association of Teachers, 1907

slide29
Students depend too much on store bought ink. They don’t know how to make their own. What will happen when they run out?

Rural American Teacher, 1928

what lies ahead in technology
What Lies Ahead in Technology
  • Diminution
  • Simulations
  • Virtual Reality
  • WWW
  • Low-Earth-Orbit Satellites
  • Web TV
  • Net PC
  • Expert Systems
slide37

The cost of computing power drops roughly 30% every year, and microchips are doubling in performance power every 18 months.

slide38

You give the birthday kid a Saturn, made by Sega, the gamemaker. It runs on a higher-performance processor than the original 1976 Cray supercomputer.

slide39

Today’s average consumers wear more computing power on their wrists than existed in the entire world before 1961.

slide40

In 1991, companies spent more money on computing and communications gear than the combined monies spent on industrial, mining, farm, and construction equipment.

slide41

Today, 65% of all workers use some type of information technology in their jobs. By 2000, this will increase to 95%.

signals
Signals
  • Educational courses and programs are being produced by corporations
  • Cable and phone companies are consolidating to provide interactive multimedia programming
signals1
Signals
  • A third of Americans have a computer in the home; 40% of these have modems
  • An increasing number of students want and need non-traditional, flexible schedules
signals2
Signals
  • Certification monopoly at risk
    • employers concerned about competency
    • employers relying less on diplomas
  • Outcomes assessment coming on line--Western Governors University
signals3
Signals
  • Job guarantee programs
    • Univ Miami engineering
    • St. John Fisher College
    • Univ Missouri-Rolla
signals4
Signals
  • Transition from learned infrastructure to learning infrastructure
  • Transition from distance learning to distributed learning
signals5
Signals
  • Cyber-Universities
    • 1993: 93
    • 1997: 762
summary
Summary
  • “Every day seems to bring the dawn of a new era”
  • To anticipate the future, we must identify signals of change
  • To shape our future, we must interpret and act on these signals
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