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United States Country Team Report. Third NTA Workshop Honolulu, Hawaii January 20, 2006. Team members. Pablo Comelatto Avi Ebenstein Ron Lee Tim Miller Eric Shiff Gretchen Stockmayer. Accomplishments. Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for 2000.

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United States Country Team Report

Third NTA Workshop

Honolulu, Hawaii

January 20, 2006


Team members

  • Pablo Comelatto

  • Avi Ebenstein

  • Ron Lee

  • Tim Miller

  • Eric Shiff

  • Gretchen Stockmayer


Accomplishments

  • Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for 2000.

  • Most Public Transfers, 1850 to 2100.

  • Aggregate Control Totals, 1929-2004.

  • Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960, 1963-2003.


Difficulties encountered

  • Using three micro-data sources rather than a single source.

  • Un-representative samples. (e.g. Industrial workers and their families)

  • Measuring household savings. (Residual of a residual).

  • Smoothing.

  • Adjusting to control totals.


Plans for next year (next 3 years?)

Deepen accounting:

Details on consumption (capital/current),

reallocations (capital/credit/land), and

transfers (education, health, other).

Develop Wealth Accounts.

Extend accounts:

Back to 1776?

Project accounts:

2007 to 2100?

Widen accounting: Education and Gender


Accomplishments

  • Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for 2000.

  • Most Public Transfers, 1850 to 2100.

  • Aggregate Control Totals, 1929-2004.

  • Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960, 1963-2003.


Composition of Per-Capita Inflow of Resources By Age

Assets

Private Transfers

Public Transfers

Labor Income


Composition of Per-Capita Outflow of Resources By Age

Assets

Private Transfers

Public Transfers

Consumption


How the per-capita life cycle deficit was funded: United States, 2000

Asset

Reallocations

Labor Earnings

& Consumption

Public

Transfers

Private

Transfers

Inflow

Outflow

Net


How the per-capita life cycle deficit was funded: United States, 2000

Asset

Reallocations

Labor Earnings

& Consumption

Public

Transfers

Private

Transfers

Inflow

Outflow

Net


Composition of Aggregate Inflow of Resources By Age

Assets

Public Transfers

Labor Income


Composition of Aggregate Outflow of Resources By Age

Assets

Public Transfers

Private Transfers

Consumption


How the aggregate life cycle deficit was funded: United States, 2000

Asset

Reallocations

Labor Earnings

& Consumption

Public

Transfers

Private

Transfers

Inflow

Outflow

Net


Accomplishments

  • Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for 2000.

  • Most Public Transfers, 1850 to 2100.

  • Aggregate Control Totals, 1929-2004.

  • Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960, 1963-2003.


Accomplishments

  • Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for 2000.

  • Most Public Transfers, 1850 to 2100.

  • Aggregate Control Totals, 1929-2004.

  • Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960, 1963-2003.


Aggregate Life Cycle Deficit as Percent of Labor Earnings, 1929-2004

(C – YL) / YL


Accomplishments

  • Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for 2000.

  • Most Public Transfers, 1850 to 2100.

  • Aggregate Control Totals, 1929-2004.

  • Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960, 1963-2003.


Next Step: Longitudinal Profiles

  • Using the age data from 1988,1917,1935, and 1980-2000 and the aggregate control totals from 1929-2004 and with some heroic assumptions…

  • We can obtain matrices for labor earnings, consumption, and the life cycle deficit by age and year from 1850 thru 2200.

  • From these, we obtain the life cycle trajectories for birth cohorts.


Warning

These are preliminary results. We cut a few corners in getting the data ready. Best viewed as an example of what we’re going to be doing (more carefully).


Ages 25 to 62


Age 24 to 59


Labor Earnings were $37 Billion

$0.5 Billion

(1.4%)

$14 Billion

(38%)

$6 Billion

(16%)

34% of Population is Age 25 to 62


Labor earnings were $6.6 Trillion

$1.0 Trillion

(17%)

$1.4 Trillion

(22%)

$1.9 Trillion

(30%)

50% of Population is Age 24 to 59


Difficulties encountered

  • Using three micro-data sources rather than a single source.

  • Un-representative samples. (e.g. Industrial workers and their families)

  • Assigning educational expenditures.

  • Measuring household savings. (Residual of a residual).

  • Measuring the capital stock.


Plans for next year (next 3 years?)

Deepen accounting:

Details on consumption (capital/current),

reallocations (capital/credit/land), and

transfers (education, health, other).

Develop Wealth Accounts.

Extend accounts:

Back to 1776?

Project accounts:

2007 to 2100?

Other dimensions: Education and Gender


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