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Mathematical Modeling: West Nile Virus. Richard Allen and Paula Avery Glorieta, 2002. Computational Science?. Computational science seeks to gain an understanding of science through the use of mathematical models on HP computers. Computational Science involves teamwork. Experiment.

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Mathematical modeling west nile virus

Mathematical Modeling:West Nile Virus

Richard Allen and Paula Avery

Glorieta, 2002


Computational science
Computational Science?

Computational science seeks to gain an understanding of science through the use of mathematical models on HP computers.

Computational Science involves teamwork


Computational science1

Experiment

Theory

Computation

Computational Science

Complements, but does not replace, theory and experimentation in scientific research.


Computational science2
Computational Science

  • Is often used in place of experiments when experiments are too large, too expensive, too dangerous, or too time consuming.

  • Can be useful in “what if” studies; e.g. to investigate the use of pathogens (viruses, bacteria, fungi) to control an insect population.

  • Is a modern tool for scientific investigation.



Mathematical model
Mathematical Model

A mathematical formulation of some process in order to better understand it and to predict its future behavior.

  • The success of a mathematical model depends on its ease of use and its accuracy of prediction.

  • There are three simple rules for creating a model. Unfortunately, nobody knows what they are*.

You can’t “cook book” useful models


Examples
Examples

  • Newton’s second law of motion: F = m*a

  • Radioactive decay: N(t) = N(0)*e-k*t

  • Compound interest: P(t) = P(0)(1 + r/n)nt

  • Bungee cord: m*g*(L + d) = k*d2/2

  • Golf ball trajectory: x(t) = (v0*cos )*t; y(t) = (v0*sin )*t - 0.5*g*t2

  • Population growth: Pn = Po + r*Po*(1 – Po/K)


Background west nile virus infection cycle
Background: West Nile Virus Infection Cycle


Background west nile virus culex tarsila mosquito
Background: West Nile Virus (Culex Tarsila Mosquito)


Background west nile virus culex tarsila mosquito1
Background: West Nile Virus (Culex Tarsila Mosquito)


Background nm county vbi values
Background: NM County VBI Values


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