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Prospects for Hybrids in the U.S. Market Walter McManus, President McManus Analytics LLC In the U.S., diesel and hybrid vehicles are increasing their shares of light vehicle sales. Share of Light Vehicle Sales 3.4% Diesel 1.8% Hybrid 0.3%

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Prospects for Hybrids in the U.S. Market

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Prospects for hybrids in the u s market l.jpg

Prospects for Hybrids in the U.S. Market

Walter McManus, President

McManus Analytics LLC


In the u s diesel and hybrid vehicles are increasing their shares of light vehicle sales l.jpg

In the U.S., diesel and hybrid vehicles are increasing their shares of light vehicle sales.

Share of Light Vehicle Sales

3.4%

Diesel

1.8%

Hybrid

0.3%

Source: J.D. Power and Associates, Forecasting and Analytics, 2004


Trends in importance ratings by u s consumers of selected attributes index value 1997 100 l.jpg

Trends in Importance Ratings by U.S. Consumers of Selected AttributesIndex Value (1997=100)

138

Four Doors

130

Room for 6 Passengers

Fuel Economy

103

99

Environmental Friendliness

Source: J.D. Power and Associates, Automotive Performance, Execution, and Layout Study, 1997-2004 prelim


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Simulation Model (Greene-Duleep-McManus)

  • Derive or assume values of attributes such as fuel economy, range, fuel availability and torque in RPE-equivalent, as well as price elasticities

  • Calibrate NMNL model to 2002 LDV data

  • “Create” new nameplate/configurations for hybrids and diesels

  • Estimate new market shares


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What consumer attributes were explicitly included?

  • Retail Price Equivalent

  • Fuel Economy (3-yr payback)

  • Range

  • Torque

  • Fuel Availability

  • No diesel or hybrid “extra value”


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Diesel prices are expected to increase with Tier II standards.


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Hybrid incremental prices depend on vehicle size and type of system (2012 prices shown).


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Hybrids and diesels are expected to deliver both higher MPG and more torque.

  • Hybrids

  • Diesels


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Outlook:Hybrid Share of New Vehicle Sales

  • 2012: 5% to 20% of LDV market

  • 2020: 10% to 25% of LDV market


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