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International Tour Operator Management Part II. Market Research and customer behaviour . Forecasting models in tourism. Forecasting is very necessary in tourism Rational decision cannot be taken with forecast about trends Risk of management mistakes is high in tourism because

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International tour operator management part ii l.jpg

International Tour Operator ManagementPart II


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Market Research and customer behaviour


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Forecasting models in tourism

  • Forecastingisverynecessary in tourism

    • Rational decisioncannotbetakenwithforecastabouttrends

    • Riskofmanagementmistakesishigh in tourismbecause

      • Tourismservicescannotbestored

      • Service consumptionispartofproduction, happeningat same time

      • Customer satisfactiondependsto a large part on externalfactors

      • Formanyareashighinvestmentcosts (infrastructure, hotels)

  • Different criteriaformeasuring tourism

    • Number of visitors/guests, number of tourists (UNWTO)

    • Number of visitor groups

    • Number of overnight stays

    • Level of expenditure per person per day

    • Value added share of tourism (WTTC)

    • Market share


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Forecasting methods in tourism

  • Difficulties

    • New industry, lack oflong-termtimelinesandhistoricdata

    • Standardisation oftourismstatistics just beginninginternationally (Satelliteaccounts), not existingfordomestictourism

    • Demand volatile, easilyinfluencedbyexternalfactorsandevents

    • Under-academicationoftourismindustry, „Ruleofthumb“

    • Lack ofmethodicalknowledge in tourismindustry

  • Forms offorecasting

    • Qualitative und quantitative Forecastingmethods

    • Short / longtermmethods

    • Examples: Survey, Scenarios, Delphi


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Market research and analysis

  • Market research

    • Systematicprocessofacquiring, processingandanalysing quantitative and qualitative datatoassistthedecisionmakingprocess.

  • Different formsofmarketresearch

    • Facts, Images, perceptions, motivations

    • Analysis ofsituationatgivenmomentorongoingmarketscanto understand developmentsandtrendsofmarket

  • Major tasksofmarketresearch

    • Definition of (sub-)markets

    • Analysis of (sub-)markets

    • Demand research

    • Competitionresearch


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Market research forms

  • Primary research – Field research

    • Ownresearch (companyor Institute)

      • Surveys

      • Observation

      • Experiment

      • Reporting

  • Secundaryresearch – Desk research

    • Internal sources

    • Externalsources


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German tourism market research institutes I

  • B.A.T. Freizeit-Forschungsinstitut GmbH, Hamburg

  • Consultant Aviation & Tourism, Stelle

  • Creatours Destination, Freizeit, Tourismus, Dresden

  • Dallmeier & Partner, Korschenbroich

  • Deutscher Reisemonitor – DRM, c/o IPK International GmbH, München

  • Deutsches Touristik-Institut eV, DTI, Stockdorf/München

  • dwif – Consulting GmbH, Berlin/München

  • dwif – Deutsches Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Institut für Fremdenverkehr eV an der Universität München, München

  • Europäisches Tourismus Institut – ETI, Trier

  • Europäischer Reisemonitor c/o European Travel Intelligence Center, Luxemburg

  • FT – Freizeit und Touristik GmbH, Grafschaft


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German tourism market research institutes II

  • FUR Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen eV, Kiel

  • Inspektour GmbH, Heide

  • Ipsos GmbH, Mölln

  • ITF Research GmbH, Bremerhaven

  • Mobility & Touristcope, (DB, LH, T.O., Autoindustrie), Frankfurt

  • Project M Marketing Research GmbH, Lüneburg

  • Reppel + Partner GmbH, Karslruhe-Durlach

  • Studiengemeinschaft für Tourismus SfT, Ammerland/Bayern

  • TourismusKompetenz, München

  • Ulysses – Web-Tourismus, München

  • World-Travel Monitor Ltd. Malta, c/o IPK International GmbH, München


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Tourism Fairs in Germany and abroad


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Examples of Market research methods

  • Surveys: oral, written, bytelephone, online

    • Structured/unstructured, standardised

    • Open/half open/closedsurveys

  • Experiment

    • Test markets

  • Observation

    • Customer behaviour

    • Frequencies, Spatialmovementanalysis, testpurchases

  • Trend analysis

    • Extrapolation ofpastdevelopmentsintothefuture: dangerous(„Predictionsaredangerous, especiallyiftheyconcernthefuture“ – Nils Bohrs) especiallyfor fast developingactivityliketourism

    • Example: Predictionsofsituation 2007 made in 1987 (cold war), or 1997 (nointernet, nobudgetairlines)


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    Customer behaviour

    • Influences

      • Cultural

        • Cultural background

        • Subculture

        • Social background

      • Social

        • Peer groups

        • Family

        • Role and Status

        • Perception of tourism

      • Personal

        • Age, current biographical situation

        • Job

        • Economic situation

        • Lifestyle

        • Self-perception

        • Motivation

        • Values

        • Travel Biography

    • Increasing segmentation

    • number of milieus increasing

    • disappearance of clear social roles in post-modern society


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    Market segmentation

    • http://www.sinus-sociovision.de/


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    Analysis of customer behaviour

    • Seven questions, sevenanswers


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    Competitor analysis and benchmarking

    • Ongoinganalysisofcompetitorsbehaviour

      • Direct: Observation ofproducts, offers, marketingactivitiesofcompetitors

      • Indirect: Intelligenceaboutcompetitorsplansandstrategies(„Knowyourenemybetterthan he knowshimself“ – Sun Zi)

    • Benchmarking

      • Learning fromthebest in thebranch (opposite „bestpractice“ – can also befromotherbranches)

      • Identifyingbenchmarkcompetitorforspecifictask, analysisofownshortcomings, implementation, feedback (TQM)


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    Definition of Market for specific product

    • Marketsarementallyconstructed

    • Marketsaredynamic

    • Customers decide on marketstructure

  • Classical Segmentation

    • Geographical, demographicalandpsychographical

  • Postmodern Segmentierung

    • Lifestyle, activities, milieus


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    Major trends in customer behaviour

    • 1. Changingcustomerprofile

    • 2. Shiftingconsumptionpattern

    • 3. Intensifyingcompetition / continuingconsolidation

    • 4. Growingsegmentation

    • 5. Escalatingconcernforsafety / security

    • 6. Increasingvalueorientation

    • 7. Increasinginfluenceoftheinternet

    • 8. Severalshorttripsinsteadofonelongholiday, short-time decision

    • 9. Lesscustomersloyaltyfor Tour Operator ordestination


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    Influences on customers behaviour in tourism


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    Influences on customers behaviour in tourism


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    Tourism motivation

    • Someclassicaltheories:

    • Maslow‘spyramidofneeds

    • Fleeingfrombadsituationathome

    • Searchforauthenticity

    • Recreation, regeneration

    • Self-actualization

    • Contrasttohome

    • Structuringof time after lossofreligious time frame

    • Travellingforhealthreasons

    • Travellingforunrestrictedenactmentofconsumption (sex, alcohol, servility)

    • Travellingasowngoal (thewayisthegoal: hiking, cruise)


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    Tourists typologies

    • Typologiesaccordingto

      • Activities

      • Preferredsurroundings

      • Spatialbehaviour

      • Level ofintegrationintolocalcommunity

      • Forms ofinformationgathering

      • Opposition to normal life

      • Frequencyoftravel

      • Position in biographicaldevelopmentoftravelling

      • Etc. etc.

      • Problem: multioptional behaviourwithinsourcemarketsandwithin individual touristincreasing, wishforhigherintensity


    Tourists and lifestyle typologies examples l.jpg

    Tourists and lifestyle typologies - Examples

    • Opaschowski: Touristsfocussing on

      • Integration

      • Prestige

      • Experience

      • Culture

      • Entertainment

      • Quality

      • Economy

    • Austria 2000 – Euro-Lifestyle

      • The carefulRecreationist

      • The classical Culture tourist

      • The demandingExperiencer

      • The youngEnjoyer

      • The young Family


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    Marketing for Tour operators

    Discussion

    Major problems:

    Brand-adequate Quality: Dependance on externalserviceproviders

    Increasingtransparencyofoffersfromcompetitors / directsales

    Dependance on destinationmarketing - Necessitiyofcooperation


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    Product Management


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    Product Management Steps


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    Product Management policies


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    Types of packages tours

    • Fullpackage tour

    • Part package tour

    • Individual package tour (moduls)

    • All Inclusive Tour

    • Dynamic Packaging

    • Specifictours (f.i. business, incentive, cruise, pilgrime, event tour)


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    Product development

    • Whatisthecustomerreallylookingfor?

      • Example „Space“ tourism

      • Genericproduct

      • Expectedproduct

      • Extended product

      • Potential product

    • Productincludes

      • Competence toofferproductsolutions

      • Bundleofservicesnecessary

      • Service claimsandpromises

      • Risktaking

      • Packageprice

      • Preparation, Standardisation, Quality control


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    Product adaptation

    • Whatare different sourcemarketcustomersreallylookingfor?

      • Productadaptationaccordingtocustomersexpectationsandbehaviour

      • Different stories for same productfor different customers

      • Spatialdifferentationfor different customergroupsatdestination


    Parts of product l.jpg

    Parts of product

    • Technical

      • Material, Construction

    • Aesthetic

      • Form, Colour, Design, Packaging

    • Symbolic

      • Brand, Image

    • Main features

      • Aim/Goal ofproductpurchase

    • Additional features

      • Information, Customer service


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    Dynamic Packaging

    • Definition

      • Choosing, packagingandbookingfor different modulsof a package tour in realtimewith a packageprice

    • Dynamic Packagingdisappears in massmarket

      • Withincreaseofpackagetouristsstandardisedpre-packedtourswithstandardlengthandprogrammeeasierttoorganiseandtosell

    • Dynamic Packagingreappears in post-industrialconsumermarket

      • Wishfor multi-purpose, multi-dimensional travel. Increase in travelexperiencebycustomers, IT advantages

    • Dynamic Packagingchanges T.O. business

      • Need tohave stand-alonecomponentsready in realtime

      • Muddlingofbordertravelagency – tour operator


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    Pricing


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    Price in the product life cycle

    Price

    Cost plus Pricing

    Penetration

    Time


    Price limits l.jpg

    Price limits


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    Distribution


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    Distribution

    • Waysofdistribution

      • Directdistribution

      • indirectdistribution

    • Forms ofsalesorganisations

      • Own / others: broker, consolidators, traders

      • Withintheindustry (cooperation, franchise, travelagencies) / outside theindustry (retail, departmentstores, gas station)

    • Instruments ofdistribution

      • Agency agreement, commission, direct/indirectsalessupport, trainingofstaff


    Direct and indirect distribution l.jpg

    Direct and indirect Distribution

    DIRECT

    • Lowercosts

    • Bettercustomerrelation

    • Higher brandawareness

    • Lessreliance on distributionpartners

    • But: conflictwithtravelagenciesandotherdistributionpartners

      • (examples German Railway, Colorline)

        INDIRECT

    • Ownchannels (travelagencies, mediagroups, franchise)

    • Other channels (general, selectiveorexclusive)


    Travel agencies as distribution channel for tour operators l.jpg

    Travel agencies as distribution channel for tour operators

    • „Ein Reisebüro/Reisevermittler ist im Verhältnis zum Reiseveranstalter Handelsvertreter im Sinne der §§ 84 ff HGB und für den Kunden / Reisenden auf der Basis eines entgeltlichen (Provision) Geschäftsbesorgungsvertrages § 675 BGB mit Werkvertragscharakter §§ 631 ff BGB tätig.“

    • Vertragsgegenstand zwischen Reisebüro und Kunde ist die

      • Vermittlung einer einzelnen Reiseleistung eines fremden Leistungsträgers oder

      • Vermittlung einer Pauschalreise eines fremden Reiseveranstalters.


    Function of the travel agency l.jpg

    Function of the travel agency

    • Tour operatorspointofview:

      • Matchmakingbetweencustomerand T.O.

      • Commission isonlypaidifbusinessisgenerated, partof variable coststructure

      • Provision ofcomprehensivedistributionnetworkwithoutonwinvestment

      • Known POS

      • Oftengoodlocation (1A) (physical / internet)

      • Existenceof loyal regularcustomers, goodexperiencesofcustomerswithtravelagencycrossingovertorecommended T.O. product

    • Customers pointofview:

      • Easy toreach, personal service

      • Physicalinformation (catalogues)

      • Consultation, answersto „silly“ questions

      • Face-to-facecommunication, also forcomplaints

      • Filters out unsuitable, unrealiableoffers


    Communication policy l.jpg

    Communication policy


    Communication policy40 l.jpg

    Communication policy

    • Goal: PositivelyInfluencing

      • Ownstaff

      • Potential customers

      • Actualcustomers

      • Public opinion

      • Politicians, institutions


    Advertisement above the line l.jpg

    Advertisement – above the line

    • Openlyinfluencingpublicopinionto

      • Keep customers

      • Getnewcustomers

      • Produce positive environmentforownproducts

      • Directlyadresscustomers


    Sales support l.jpg

    Sales support

    • Supportingdistributionchannels:

      • Monetaryactivities:

        Commission on sales (basic, special, volume-based, target-based)

        Incentivesfor individual sellers

        Refinancingof PR/advertisementactivities

        Payment ofcreditcardcosts etc.

      • Non-monetaryactivities:

        Productinformation

        Trainings

        discountedtravels

        decorationmaterials

        Hotline etc.

    • Supportingdirectdistribution:

      • Catalogues, discounts, loyaltybonusses etc.


    Public relations work below the line l.jpg

    Public Relations work - below the line

    • IndirectlyorCovertlyinfluencingpublicopinionby

      • Press releases

      • Events

      • Sponsoring

      • Customers forum

      • House magazines

      • Website

      • Participation in fairs etc.

      • Productplacement

      • Guerilla marketing

      • Covert websitessupport

      • Cross selling etc.


    Quality management l.jpg

    Quality Management


    Quality management45 l.jpg

    Quality management

    • Quality ≠ Expensive

    • Quality: Hardware, Surroundings, Software

    • Quality: Ongoingprocess


    Tqm total quality management l.jpg

    TQM – Total Quality Management

    • Customer pointofview: Howimportantistheserviceofferedandhow was thequalityoftheserviceperceived?

    • Producers pointofview: Howgood was thequalitymanagement?

    • TQM as a never-endingupward spiral (Kaizen)


    Ecology management l.jpg

    Ecology management

    • Based on:

    • Laws andregulations

    • Customer demand

    • Staffdemand

    • In Germany:

    • DeHoGa Eco Criteria

    • Governmentsubsidiesfrom

      • European Recovery Program (ERP)

      • Deutsche Ausgleichsbank (DtA)

      • Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW)

      • Bundesländer Subsidies


    Ecology management48 l.jpg

    Ecology management

    • Labels:

    • Many Ecology labelsworldwide on different levels

    • Example Bavaria: http://www.stmugv.bayern.de/umwelt/wirtschaft/siegel/index.htm

    • Other examples:

    • Blaue Flagge, Grüner Koffer

    • Top label in Germany: Viabono


    Sources l.jpg

    Sources

    • Bastian, H., Born, K., (2004): Der integrierte Tourismuskonzern, München/Wien.

    • Becker, P., (2004): Yield-Management, Düsseldorf.

    • Berg, W., (2001): Tourismus 3, (Hrsg.) Dettmer, H., Stuttgart.

    • Bieger, T., (2002): Management der Destination, 5. Auflage, München/Wien.

    • Böttcher, V., (2005): Virtuell oder real?, TUI Deutschland, Köln.

    • Dettmer, H., Glück, E., Hausmann, Th., Kaspar, C., Logins, H., Opitz, W., Schneid, W., (2000): Tourismustypen, München/Wien.

    • Dettmer, H., Hausmann, Th., Kloss, I., Meisl, H., Weithöner, U., Degott, P., (1999): Tourismus-Marketing-Management, München/Wien.

    • Dettmer, H., Hausmann, T., Kaspar, C., Oppitz, W., Schneid, W., (2001): Tourismusbetriebswirtschaft 2 – Managementformen im Tourismus, Wien/Köln/Aarau.

    • Dettmer, H., Hausmann, Th., (2004): Yield-Management, Bad Harzburg.

    • Dettmer, H., u.a., (2005): Managementformen im Tourismus, München/Wien.


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    • DSF - Deutsches Seminar für Fremdenverkehr, (2002): Pauschalreisen rechtlich absichern, Berlin.

    • Eisner, H., (1987): Reiserecht Entscheidungen, München.

    • Echtermeyer, M., (1998): Elektronisches Tourismus-Marketing, Berlin/New York.

    • Fresi, A., (2005): Die nächste Generation der Reiseproduktion – Realtime Enterprise Kollaboration in der Reiseindustrie, Siemens, Köln.

    • Freyer, W., (1998): Tourismus, 7. Auflage, München/Wien.

    • Freyer W., Pompl, W., (1999): Reisebüro-Management, München/Wien.

    • fvw, (2005): TID, Der Touristik Informationsdienst, Hamburg.

    • Glaeßer, D., (2001): Krisenmanagement im Tourismus, Frankfurt.

    • Gruner, A., (2000): Tourismus 2, (Hrsg.) Dettmer, H., Köln.

    • Gruner, A., (2004): Methoden des Yield-Managements im Logisbereich der internationalen Hotellerie, München.

    • Haedrich, G., Kaspar, C., Klemm, Ch., Kreilkamp, E., (1998): Tourismus-Management, 3. Auflage, Berlin/New York.


    Slide51 l.jpg

    • Hänssler, K.H., (2000): Management in der Hotellerie und Gastronomie, 4. Auflage, München/Wien.

    • Kärcher, K., (2004): Urlaub per Mausklick – Die Potenziale des Dynamic Packaging.

    • Kaspar, C., (1986): Die Fremdenverkehrslehre im Grundriss, 3. Auflage, St. Gallen.

    • Kirstges, T. (1992): Sanfter Tourismus, München/Wien.

    • Kotler, P., Bliemel, F., (2001): Marketing-Management, 10. Auflage, Stuttgart.

    • Kreilkamp, E., (2002): Reisbüros unter Druck, Wiesbaden.

    • Kreilkamp, E., (1999): Die Zukunft der Reisebüros, Lüneburg.

    • Logins, H., (2004): Yield-Management – Arbeitspapier, München.

    • Medlik, S., (1991): Managing Tourism, Oxford.

    • Mundt, J.W., (1998): Reiseveranstaltung, 4.Auflage, München/Wien.

    • Nies, I., (2005): Reisebüro, Rechts- und Versicherungsfragen, 2. Auflage, München.


    Slide52 l.jpg

    • Olfert, K., Rahn, H.J., (2001): Lexikon der Betriebswirtschaftslehre, 4. Auflage, Ludwigshafen.

    • Opaschowski, H.W., (2005): Tourismusanalyse 2005 mit Grundlagenforschung, Hamburg.

    • Pichler, S., (2000), E-Business in der Reisebranche – Chancen oder Risiko?, Wiesbaden.

    • Pompl, W., (2002): Luftverkehr, 4. Auflage, Berlin/Heidelberg.

    • Pompl, W., (1997): Touristikmanagement 1, 2. Auflage, Berlin/Heidelberg.

    • Pompl, W., (1996): Touristikmanagement 2, Berlin/Heidelberg.

    • Pompl, W., Lieb, M., (1997): Qualitätsmanagement im Tourismus, München/Wien.

    • Pompl, W., Lieb, M., (2002): Tourismus-Management, München.

    • Porter, M.E., (1999): Wettbewerbsstrategien, 10. Auflage, Frankfurt/New York.

    • Rudolph, H., (1999): Tourismus-Betriebswirtschaftslehre, München/ Wien.

    • Roth, P., Schrand, A., (2003): Touristik-Marketing, 4. Auflage, München.


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    • Schiava, M., Hafner, M., (1995): Service-Marketing im Tourismus, 4. Auflage, Wien.

    • Schneider, A., (2005): Virtuelle Veranstalter im Praxistest, Köln.

    • Schnyder, W., (2002): Die Zukunft der Airline-Vergütung, Wiesbaden.

    • Schreiber, Th., (1999): Kongress- und Tagungsmanagement, München/Wien

    • Schroeder, G., ( 2002): Lexikon der Tourismuswirtschaft, 4. Auflage, Hamburg.

    • Seitz, E., (2001): Fallstudien zum Tourismus-Marketing, München.

    • Steinecke, A., (2000): Erlebnis- und Konsumwelten, München/Wien.

    • Sterzenbach, R., Conrady, R., (2003): Luftverkehr, 3. Auflage, München/Wien.

    • Voigt, P., (2001): Internationales Reiseveranstaltungsmanagement, München.

    • Viegas, A., (1998): Ökomanagement im Tourismus, München/Wien.

    • Weiermair, K., Wöhler, K., (1998): Personalmanagement im Tourismus, Limburgerhof.

    • Weis, Ch., (1999): Marketing, (Hrsg.) Olfert, K., 11. Auflage, Ludwigshafen.


    Slide54 l.jpg

    • Wöhler, K., Schertler, W., (1993): Touristisches Umweltmanagement, Limburgerhof.

    • Wolf, J., Seitz, E., (1991): Tourismus-Management und Marketing, Landsberg/Lech.


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    Abbrevations

    • AGAktiengesellschaft

    • AGBAllgemeine Geschäftsbedingungen

    • AGBGAllgemeine Geschäftsbedingungen Gesetz

    • BCGBoston Consulting Group

    • BGBBürgerliche Gesetzbuch

    • BATBritish American Tobacco

    • BSPBillingand Settlement Plan

    • BTMBusiness Travel Management

    • CACanada/USA

    • CSI Customer Satisfaction Index

    • CRSComputer Reservation System

    • DBDeutsche Bahn

    • DCRDifferenz zwischen Business Class und dem Rechnungsbetrag

    • DERDeutsches Reisebüro


    Slide56 l.jpg

    • DMC Destination Management Company

    • DMODestination Marketing Organisation

    • ETIXElectronic Ticket

    • FTIFrosch Touristik International

    • FuEForschung und Entwicklung

    • GDSGlobal Distribution System

    • GFGeschäftführer

    • GfKGesellschaft für Konsumforschung

    • GSA/GVGeneral Sales Agent/General-Vertretung

    • HGBHandelsgesetzbuch

    • HLXHapag Lloyd Express

    • InfVInformations-Verordnung


    Slide57 l.jpg

    • IPKInstitut für Planungs-Kybernetik

    • ITSInternationaler Touristik Service

    • KfWKreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau

    • LCA/LBALow-Cost-Airlines/Low-Budget-Airlines

    • LCCLufthansa City-Center/Low CostCarrier

    • LG Landgericht

    • LTILuft Transport und Immobilien

    • LTSLuft Transport und Service

    • LTULuft Transport Unternehmen (Luft Transport Union)

    • LVGLuftverkehrsgesellschaft

    • MISManagement- oder Marketing-Informations-System

    • NSANorwegische Schifffahrts-Agentur

    • NURNeckermann & Touristik

    • NVAGNeckermann-Versand AG

    • PangVOPreis-Angaben-Verordnung


    Slide58 l.jpg

    • RBReisebüro

    • RMReisemittler, Revenue Management

    • R/NRoom/Night

    • T.O.Reiseveranstalter

    • RVReiseveranstaltung

    • RZRisiko-Zuschlag

    • TCThomas Cook

    • TNTeilnehmer

    • TQ3Total Quality 3

    • TQMTotal Quality Management

    • TUCTUI Urlaubs Center

    • PAFPay-as-you-fly

    • PDPreisdifferenzierung

    • PM Product-Manager

    • POSPoint ofSale


    Slide59 l.jpg

    • PRPublic Relation

    • PTA Prepaid Ticket Advice (Rufpassage)

    • QM Qualitätsmanagement

    • TUITouristik Union International

    • TVGTouristische Vertriebs-Gesellschaft

    • UWGUnlauterer Wettbewerbsgesetz

    • VFVerkaufsförderung

    • WKZWerbekosten-Zuschüsse

    • YMYield Management (Revenue Management)

    • 3BZDreibettzimmer

    • 4BZVierbettzimmer


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