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Corps of Engineers Omaha District Forecast Update PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Corps of Engineers Omaha District Forecast Update. Brian Twombly Kellie Bergman January 2010 Jay Lincoln. Volumetric Water Supply Forecasts. Bureau of Reclamation projects Joint-use/flood control storage needed for expected runoff volume Clark Canyon Dam, MT 50,000 acre-feet

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Corps of Engineers Omaha District Forecast Update

Brian Twombly

Kellie Bergman

January 2010

Jay Lincoln


Volumetric Water Supply Forecasts

  • Bureau of Reclamation projects

  • Joint-use/flood control storage needed for expected runoff volume

    • Clark Canyon Dam, MT 50,000 acre-feet

    • Canyon Ferry Dam, MT 795,000 acre-feet

    • Tiber Dam, MT 260,000 acre-feet

    • Boysen Dam, WY 145,000 acre-feet

    • Yellowtail Dam, WY 240,000 acre-feet

  • Informational purposes only

    • Glendo Dam, WY


Multi-Variable Linear Regression

  • Computing April to July “natural” inflow volume to the project.

  • Independent predictor variables:

  • Antecedent conditions

  • The basin average snow water equivalent (SWE)

  • Spring-season precipitation


Example of Volumetric Water Supply Forecast

(Canyon Ferry Reservoir)

IF = 2.023(ANTON) + 0.177(SAPR) + 0.265(PREAMJ) - 3.081

  • IF = The forecasted natural April through July inflow volume to Canyon Ferry in MAF.

  • ANTON = The natural October and November antecedent runoff volume in MAF.

  • SAPR = The average April 1 snowpack water content in inches of 9 snotel stations.

  • PREAMJ = The average monthly precipitation in inches for 9 stations for each month of April, May, and June.


Forecast Improves as Season Progresses and More Data becomes Available


Model Development Using ARRA Funding

  • Modeling is overseen by the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center

  • West Consultants in San Diego, CA

  • Modeling three different locations:

    • Chatfield Dam in Denver, CO

    • Fall River near Hot Springs, SD

    • James River upstream of Lamoure, ND


Fall River Basin, HEC-HMS models.


Fall River Basin, HEC-HMS models for the Cold Brook and Cottonwood Reservoir Basins.


James River Basin, HEC-HMS models for the Jamestown Reservoir Basin and downstream of the reservoir to Lamoure, ND.


Chatfield Dam, HEC-HMS models for the Chatfield Basin and downstream to the Henderson Stream Gage in the South Platte River and HEC ResSim model for Chatfield Reservoir.


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