Changing crime rates
Download
1 / 19

changing crime rates - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 272 Views
  • Updated On :

Changing crime rates?. Gabrielle Maxwell 27 February 2009 Institute of Policy Studies, Victoria University of Wellington. Outline. What evidence is available? How much crime is occurring? Are the police apprehending offenders? What sorts of crimes? Are young people offending more often?

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'changing crime rates' - arleen


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Changing crime rates

Changing crime rates?

Gabrielle Maxwell

27 February 2009

Institute of Policy Studies, Victoria University of Wellington


Outline
Outline

  • What evidence is available?

  • How much crime is occurring?

  • Are the police apprehending offenders?

  • What sorts of crimes?

  • Are young people offending more often?

  • Imprisonment rate comparisons

  • Why so much concern about rising crime?

  • Conclusions


The types of evidence
The types of evidence

  • Reported crime?

  • Resolved crime?

  • Apprehensions?

  • Breakdowns by

    • Year

    • Type of crime

    • Age group


How much crime
How much crime?

  • Victim surveys: 2000 – 2005

    • Victims of violence - little change

    • Household offences - “increase but not a large one”

  • Crime reported to the police

    • overall a decline


Crime rates recorded by police

Recorded Offences per 10,000 population

1400

1200

1000

800

Offences

600

400

200

0

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

Crime rates recorded by police


Why is crime declining
Why is crime declining

  • International trend

  • Not well understood

  • Possible reasons include

    • economic patterns,

    • better security,

    • changes in culture and life style


Police effectiveness
Police effectiveness

  • Percentage being resolved, in standard times set for resolution statistics, has steadily increased.

  • All crime:

    • 36% in 1998 to nearly 50% in 2007

  • Serious violence:

    • 71% to 80%

  • Murder:

    • 62% to 91%


Police apprehensions

Murder

Serious Violence

Police apprehensions

Police Resolution percentages for murder and serious violence 1998-2007

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

Rate

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year


What sorts of crimes
What sorts of crimes?

  • Almost all types of crimes have been declining

  • Exceptions are ones relating to new technologies

  • Most important data probably involves violence – especially serious violence and murder

  • Data in graph show no. of cases in court and not no. of offenders.



Commentary on graph
Commentary on graph

  • Overall a decline - 2007 a new trend or a blip?

  • Murder - rise from 12 to 15 per million – possibly reflects improved resolution speeds and rates

  • Serious violence shows a rise:

    • Greater increase in threats of violence than in actual assaults but there are increases here too

    • More partner violence

    • Possibly declining tolerance of violent behaviour – particular within the family.

  • International comparisons suggest violence data probably similar to Australia and Canada rather than USA


Offending by young people

Police apprehension rates per 10,000 population by age groups for all offences 1995-

2007:

2500

2000

Rate per 10,000

1500

1000

500

0

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

14 to 16

Offending by young people


Offending by young people1
Offending by young people groups for all offences 1995-

  • Why is it apparently declining when reports of rises come from various areas regularly?

    • Crime hot spots come and go – often when a specific cohort moves on or ages

    • Could be changes in patterns with changes in nature of communities

    • Increased poverty among the poorest

    • Despite media reports - South Auckland police report successful new crime management strategies


Concerns about rising crime
Concerns about rising crime groups for all offences 1995-

  • Role of the media

    • BBC analyses UK crime going down but 2/3 people believe it is rising

    • In NZ TV news – c. 20% deals with crime in a news period where about 50% in all is about death and disaster

    • Trends in press and TV – tabloidisation, trivialisation, lack of expert commentators

    • Distorted perception of facts, increased fearfulness and undermined public confidence.


Prison sentences trends 1980 2007
Prison sentences - trends groups for all offences 1995-1980-2007



Global peace index rankings 2008
Global Peace index rankings 2008 1993-2003)

  • Iceland 1

  • Denmark 2

  • Norway 3

  • New Zealand 4

  • Japan 5

  • Canada 11

  • Hong Kong 23

  • Australia 27

  • United Kingdom 49

  • United States 97

  • Iraq 140


Conclusions
Conclusions 1993-2003)

  • Overall, crime is dropping or stable

  • Police are resolving more crime more speedily

  • Violent crime is rising but in part because family violence is being reported more often

  • Young people are now less likely to come to attention than ten years ago

  • Changes reflect innovative policing, better responses to young people, better situational crime prevention

  • Prison numbers have risen disproportionately to offending and to other comparable countries


ad