Affinity Group Coalition Planning Project Supported by a generous grant from CPB

1. Affinity Group Coalition Planning Project Supported by a generous grant from CPB

2. Agenda • Overview of Changing Media Environment • Potential Implications for Public Television • Envisioning our Station’s Future • Identifying the “Critical Few”

3. HOW CONSUMERS USE TELEVISION AND VIDEO CONTENT – IS CHANGING 2. Find and Evaluate 4. Author 1. Access 3. Experience

4. 1. ACCESS: CONTENT FLOODGATES ARE OPEN Key trends in Accesstechnology • More content - through cable and satellite • More channels • More platforms - for video content

5. 1. ACCESS: BROADBAND IS THE BACKBONE US household with Broadband Access, 2000-2005 Percent Source: Knowledge Networks Home Technology Monitor

6. 2. FIND AND EVALUATE: NAVIGATION TOOLS ARE NEEDED – AND BEING DEVELOPED Key trends in Find and Evaluate technology • Interactive Program Guides (IPGs) • Peer and expert rating systems • “Tagging” - consumers define what they see

7. 2. FIND AND EVALUATE: FRIENDS AS EXPERTS NetFlix Friends updates the now-familiar user review. It allows you to select “reviewers” from a group of your own trusted taste-makers. Many sites offering video clips include evaluation tools like this to increase traffic and site loyalty.

8. 3. EXPERIENCE: CONSUMERS WANT AND GAIN CONTROL Key trends in Experience technology • Time shifting - Video On Demand (VoD) and Digital Video Recorders (DVRs) • Place shifting – Video iPod, Slingbox, etc.

9. 3. EXPERIENCE: CONSUMERS BECOME PROGRAMMERS Tivo records your favorite shows and makes recommendations based on past selections.

10. 3. EXPERIENCE: CONTENT AVAILABLE ANYWHERE Sling Media’s $250 Slingbox Personal Broadcaster connects your television at home to your computer at work (or anywhere in between) and allows you to change channels and watch TV as if you were at home in front of your TV.

11. 4. CREATE: EVERYONE CAN BE AN AUTHOR Key trends in Create technology • Internet provides a distribution platform for anyone’s content • Number of “prosumers” (producer + consumer) is growing

12. 4. CREATE: ITS AFFORDABLE, EASY For about $5000, a “prosumer” can be fully equipped to shoot and edit HDV compatible programs. Step 1. Buy a camera ($3800) Step 2. Buy editing software ($1200)

13. POSSIBLE CONCERNS FOR OUR STATION • Access: Our ability to deliver content may not be as unique as it once was. • Find and evaluate: With more content available, our quality offerings run the risk of getting lost in the clutter. • Experience: Adapting to new technologies and platforms may require flexibility and rapid innovation. • Create: A new generation of innovative producers may bypass traditional media outlets.

14. STATIONS’ RESPONSE TO CHANGING ENVIRONMENT • Develop system wide “station-centric” planning process: • With a common language and tools for planning; • Introduced and addressed through Affinity Groups. • First Step – Scenario Planning: • Develop a shared understanding of public television stations’ future.

15. STEP ONE:IMAGINING PUBLIC TELEVISION’S FUTURE • Scenario Planning Exercise • SCENARIOS ARE – • A tool for asking “What if...” and planning for a range of possible futures. • Provocations that help us see how the future might be different than we have expected or planned for. • Stories built around methodically constructed plots. • SCENARIOS ARE NOT – • Predictions of the future!

16. Scenarios are built from the outside in The World Media Environment Consumers Partners Competitors Suppliers Our Station Major external forces: Social Technological Economic Political change Strategies Staff / Board Members Partners Funders

17. 110 different dynamics distilled into nine key uncertainties. Future Uncertainties for Public Television Stations Consumer Bypass Content Ownership ? ? Dominant modes of media distribution Impact of On-Demand ? ? Flat Tax / End of Charitable Donations ? Business Model Public acceptance of change at PTV ? ? ? ? Multi-Ethnicity Local Partnerships

18. Something Other than Geography Geography Summary of Critical Uncertainties in Public Television X-AXIS:Users Want a Media Experience Built Primarily Around… Geography specific is: The New York Post A broadcast schedule that works in Baton Rouge but not Boston A community bulletin board Geography specific is not: A Chinese language world news program The New Yorker magazine The Do-It-Yourself Channel

19. Traditional Intermediaries New Intermediaries Summary of Critical Uncertainties in Public Television Y AXIS: Viewers connect to their media choices through… New Intermediaries include: Aggregation via social networking (e.g. Friendster) or blog site A service with personalization/customization algorithms (e.g. Netflix, Amazon) New ways of aggregating old content (e.g. Rotten Tomatoes movie reviews site) Individuals aggregating their own content New Intermediaries are not: New companies playing the same role as today’s incumbent aggregators

20. Possible Public Television environments - 2015 New Intermediaries Dominate I.All Media are Local Content on Diverse Platforms Serves Local Interests II.A3 Content on Diverse Platforms ServesAnyone, Anytime, Anyplace Something Other than Geography Matters Viewers connect to their media choices through… Geography Matters Users Want a Media Experience Primarily Built Around… IV.Déjà Vu Again Big Media Brands Dominate, Offer Local Content III.Rupert’s World Big Media Brands Dominate, Offer Content for Affinity Interest Groups Traditional Intermediaries Dominate

21. Companies today - a preview of each scenario New Intermediaries All Media Are Local A3 craigslist Something Other than Geography Geography Viewers connect to their media choices through… Users Want a Media Experience Primarily Built Around… Déjà Vu Again Rupert’s World Traditional Intermediaries

22. All Media are Local –Consumers want content that speaks to their local interests and needs, and they have many options for how and where they get that content. Big brands are hard to maintain. • How content is created and distributed: • Large number of amateurs and professionals • Web-based distribution and aggregation • Video devices allow content to be moved from place to place • Consumers want: • Local information about their immediate geographic • community • Highly relevant content Viewers Connect to Media through New Intermediaries Users Want a Media Experience Primarily Built Around Geography

23. Viewers Connect to Media through New Intermediaries Users Want a Media Experience Primarily Built Around Something Other Than Geography A3: Anytime, Anyone, Anyplace –A wealth of content is created by a large number of sources and is available to consumers on a large number of platforms. Big brands are hard to maintain. • How content is created and distributed: • Amateurs become authors • Easy web distribution • Video devices allow content to be moved from place to place • Digital rights regulation outpaced by demand and market trends • Consumers want: • Content that matches their niche interests • Highly relevant information that is easy to find • Geographic sensibilities, more important than actual geographic • location

24. Users Want a Media Experience Primarily Built Around Something Other Than Geography Rupert’s World –The biggest media brands successfully offer the consumer the illusion of choice and diversity. Big brands control contents’ rights. • How content is created and distributed: • Small number of major content creators with diversified • portfolios • Distribution across many platforms to a range of audience • niches • Consumers want: • Content that matches their niche interests • Quality content from trusted big brands serving as curators, • guides • Video on Demand Viewers Connect to Media through Traditional Intermediaries

25. Users Want a Media Experience Primarily Built Around Geography Déjà Vu Again – The biggest media brands dominate and strive to tailor their offerings to local communities. • How content is created and distributed: • Limited number of major content creators • Content reflects individual communities • Major markets diversify their portfolios, control different • platforms • Consumers want: • Information about their immediate geographic community • Quality content from trusted big brands • National content with a local flavor Viewers Connect to Media through Traditional Intermediaries

26. STEP TWO:IMAGINING OUR STATION’S FUTURE Station Exercise • In reality the future is uncertain. Keeping all four scenarios in mind, what actions should our station take to thrive in 2015? • “No Brainers” Makes sense for our station to do in the next three years in all 4 scenarios. • “No Gainers” Makes sense for our station to stop doing in the next three yearsin all 4 scenarios. • “No Regrets” Makes sense for our station to do in one scenario, but it won’t be a resource burden in other scenarios.

27. STEP TWO:IMAGINING OUR STATION’S FUTURE Station Exercise • Take the time horizon down to the next three years • What critical few things, must and can we do to have the greatest positive impact on our station’s future?

28. Affinity Group Coalition Planning Project