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CCOS 2000 Model Intercomparison: Diagnostic Analyses. Gail Tonnesen, Zion Wang, Mohammad Omary, Bo Wang University of California, Riverside Bourns College of Engineering Center for Environmental Research and Technology. January 27 2002, Progress Report to CARB.

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CCOS 2000 Model Intercomparison:Diagnostic Analyses

Gail Tonnesen, Zion Wang,

Mohammad Omary, Bo Wang

University of California, Riverside

Bourns College of Engineering

Center for Environmental Research and Technology

January 27 2002, Progress Report to CARB


Process analysis outputs for camx

Integrated reaction rates (IRR) show chemical production and loss in the grid cell where the species reacted.

Results shown here as total ppb/day

Integrated Process Rates (IPR) show transport, dispersion, emissions, deposition.

Have not looked at these terms yet.

Process Analysis Outputs for CAMx


Chemical process analysis for camx

IRR outputs stored in CAMx CPA file: loss

Total reactivity P(Ox) = P(O3) and oxidation of NO.

Radical budget controls P(O3) and sensitivity in urban areas:

Radical initiation

Radical propagation and termination

NOy budget controls P(O3) and O3 sensitivity in rural areas:

Conversion of NOx to Inert HNO3, RNO3, PAN.

Chemical Process Analysis for CAMx


Camx cb4 vs saprc99 reactivity

As expected SAPRC99 is “hotter”than CB4: loss

SAPRC99 has greater organic radical production and lower OH+NO2 radical termination.

SAPRC99 produces more O3 in urban areas and less in rural areas.

Consistent with box model comparisons.

Next several plots compare P(Ox) reactivity in CAMx CB4 and SAPRC99 and also show day to day variability in reactivity.

CAMx CB4 vs SAPRC99 reactivity












O3 VOC-NOx Sensitivity loss

  • Use observation based methods to estimate peak O3 sensitivity to VOC and NOx

  • Compare grid model with constrained steady state model results.

  • Use process analysis to estimate P(Ox) sensitivity to VOC and NOx.










Extent parameter

Calculated extent using ambient data as average of measured NOx = NO+NO2 and measured NOx = NOy.

Calculated model extent as NOx=NO+NO2.

Poor agreement between models and data.

Need to further evaluate this.

Extent Parameter


Extent from ambient o3 nox data
Extent from Ambient O3-NOx data NOx = NO+NO2 and measured NOx = NOy.


Extent from ambient o3 nox data1
Extent from Ambient O3-NOx data NOx = NO+NO2 and measured NOx = NOy.


Extent at parlier site july 30 no2 from tdl
Extent at Parlier Site July 30 NOx = NO+NO2 and measured NOx = NOy.(NO2 from TDL)


Extent at parlier site july 31 no2 from tdl
Extent at Parlier Site July 31 NOx = NO+NO2 and measured NOx = NOy.(NO2 from TDL)


Extent at parlier site august 1 no2 from tdl
Extent at Parlier Site August 1 NOx = NO+NO2 and measured NOx = NOy.(NO2 from TDL)


Extent at parlier site august 2 no2 from tdl
Extent at Parlier Site August 2 NOx = NO+NO2 and measured NOx = NOy.(NO2 from TDL)


Evaluate vertical mixing

Comparsions of CO as a relatively inert tracer NOx = NO+NO2 and measured NOx = NOy.

Sensitivity run with met pass through for CMAQ

Evaluate Vertical Mixing


Model co conc differences

CMAQ has lower conc early morning and higher conc later in the day.

Hypothesis: Difference in vertical dispersion

CO Conc plots do not appear to support this.

Need to further investigate.

Model CO Conc Differences







Cmaq mcip2 sensitivity
CMAQ MCIP2 Sensitivity the day.

Pass through of MM5 MRF Met data


Recommendations

Focus primarily on CAMx with SAPRC99 for the next phase of modeling.

Continue to investigate CMAQ

Meteorology and vertical mixing, h-diffusion

Updated N2O5  HNO3 with aerosols

Additional CMAQ runs well be useful for corrobatory analysis.

Run both models again if there are substantial changes in emissions.

Recommendations


Next Steps modeling.

  • Update emissions inventories

    • Updated Mobile inventory

    • Corrections to point sources

    • Resolve discrepancy in emissions processing

  • CAMx

    • sensitivity runs with lower model top, approx 4 km to reduce number of vertical layers.

  • CMAQ

    • Need aerosol chemistry to use updated N2O5 kinetics

    • Investigate vertical mixing and horizontal diffusion


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