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Lesson 8: AQ Pre-9/11

SS474: Terrorism and Counterterrorism. Lesson 8: AQ Pre-9/11. Wednesday 4 October: Film: Inside 9/11 (E hour: All sections meet in TH348) Friday 6 October: Book Review due Tuesday 10 October: WPR Comprehensive Study lesson objectives, assigned readings, etc DC Trip Finalists – see list.

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Lesson 8: AQ Pre-9/11

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  1. SS474: Terrorism and Counterterrorism Lesson 8: AQ Pre-9/11 • Wednesday 4 October:Film:Inside 9/11(E hour: All sections meet in TH348) • Friday 6 October:Book Review due • Tuesday 10 October:WPR • Comprehensive • Study lesson objectives, assigned readings, etc • DC Trip Finalists – see list

  2. Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon23 October 1983 “We couldn’t stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines.” -- Ronald Reagan, An American Life • 241 Dead • 105 Injured

  3. New York, World Trade CenterFebruary 26, 19936 Dead, 1,042 Injured Oklahoma CityMurrah Federal Building,19 April 1995168 Dead, 490 Injured

  4. Aum Shinrikyo and the Sarin Gas AttacksJapan, 1994 & 1995 Matsumoto, JapanMarch, 1994 7 Dead, 34 Injured Tokyo, JapanTeito Rapid Transit Authority (Subway System)March 20, 199512 Dead, 5,000 Injured Sarin gas kills by paralyzing muscles so that a person cannot breathe. Sarin enters the body by inhalation, ingestion, and through the eyes and skin. Symptoms begin with watery eyes, drooling, and excessive sweating, and then rapidly progress to difficulty in breathing, dimness of vision, nausea, vomiting, twitching, and headache. Ultimately the victim will become comatose and suffocate as a consequence of convulsive spasms.

  5. Khobar Towers - Dhahran, Saudi Arabia25 June 1996 • 19 Dead • 240 Injured

  6. American Embassy Bombings, Kenya and TanzaniaAugust 1998 200 Americans, Kenyans, and Tanzanians deadOver 5,000 injured

  7. 1999 LAX Attack Plan

  8. The Strategy of Terrorism • Increasing interest in “soft targets” (economically strategic impact, and less protected) such as: • pubs in Northern Ireland & London UK • openmarkets & cafes in Israel • international airport, Sri Lanka • bus in Manila, the Philippines • shopping mall in southern Philippines • nightclub in Bali, Indonesia • banks in Istanbul, Turkey • hotel in Jakarta, Indonesia • nightclub in Berlin, Germany • and, of course . . .

  9. New York City & Washington, DCSeptember 11, 2001 2,973 Dead, and 10,000+ Injured

  10. Modern Trends in Global Terrorism • More violent attacks (increasing lethality) • Increasing use of suicide bombers (the ultimate smart bomb)

  11. Karachi, PakistanMay 8, 2002 June 14, 2002 Attack on U.S. Consulate Bus attack 14 Dead, including11 French engineers 12 Dead50 Injured

  12. Bali, IndonesiaOctober 12, 2002 202 Dead350 Injured Citizens from 21 countries, mostly Western tourists, were killed in the blasts

  13. Casablanca, MoroccoMay 17, 2003 44 Dead107 Injured

  14. Jakarta, IndonesiaAugust 5, 2003 12 Dead60 Injured J.W. Marriott Hotel, Jakarta

  15. Riyadh, Saudi ArabiaNovember 8, 2003 April 21, 2004 Attack on Security Services Headquarters 3 simultaneous suicide car bomb attacks on Al-Muhayaapartment complex 4 Dead148 Injured 17 Dead122 Injured

  16. Istanbul, TurkeyNovember 20, 2003 27 Dead400 Injured Primary Targets: British consulate and the HSBC bank headquarters

  17. Madrid, SpainMarch 11, 2004 191 Dead1,035 Injured

  18. Jakarta, IndonesiaSeptember 9, 2004 9 Dead173 Injured Australian Embassy was primary target

  19. London, UKJuly 7, 2005 54 Dead716 Injured

  20. Why? What’s the history, strategy, etc. of the modern terrorism threat?

  21. AQ Pre-9/11 • What is al Qaeda’s strategy? What are their strategic objectives? • 1996 fatwa • declaration of war, warned of presence of American and British “Crusader forces” • Saudi Arabia would become a beach head to impose a new imperialism on the region to obtain its oil • “It is no secret that warding off the American enemy is the top duty after faith and nothing should take priority over it” • All ulema are “unanimous that it is an individual duty to fight an invading enemy”

  22. AQ Pre-9/11 • 1998 Fatwa – shift from the near enemy to the far enemy • Bin Laden’s critical contribution = re-directing energies of Jihadists toward attacking the U.S. anywhere • AQ and bin Laden do not want to be global leader of terrorists; rather, provide a spark, motivator, bring them under ideological umbrella

  23. AQ Pre-9/11 Appreciating the Strategic Story: • Al Qaeda “proper" desires large attacks on US • Al Qaeda is focused on US economy • What about other groups & their objectives? • US interests abroad remain vulnerable • We are dealing with a strategic enemy • Perceptions matter • Long-view of the story is critical: “Connecting the dots” vs. “Knowing the story

  24. ICE: AQ Timeline In Groups of 4: • Construct a timeline of key events leading up to 9/11 • Demonstrate how early terrorist groups or events have some relation to the events of 9/11 • Try to go as far back as 1968

  25. KSM is uncle of Yousef KSM Yousef 1986 1983 1993 1998 1995 1994 Beirut Embassy & Marine Barracks lessons learned? bin Laden Fatwa WTCBombing Landmark Plot Pan Am (Tel Aviv) Aum Shinrikyo (Tokyo) Air France #8969 2000 USS Cole 1996 bin Laden Fatwa Focused U.S. security policy towards non-state actors and WMD concerns Important conceptual shift from “near enemy” to “far enemy” 1999 Millennium Plots LAX, Jordan 7/7 London Oplan Bojinka 1st attack on U.S. soil? ? 1985 2004 2001 1968 3/11 Madrid 9/11 Embassy bombings Somalia paper tiger? Khobar Towers Islamic Terrorism Timeline: A Strategic View

  26. AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats • Three capabilities critical to 9/11 still exist • Ability to identify and exploit a key gap in opponents’ defenses • Effective and clever use of deception and denial • Suicide attacks employed to ensure operation’s success • Theoretically, a vast reservoir of trained recruits remains available for activation/mobilization • Tens of thousands jihadists trained in past decade • Means and methods of terrorism widely disseminated

  27. AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats • Method of attack • Depends on which “Al Qaeda” you are dealing with • Al Qaeda prefers coordinated attacks in waves • Well-planned with strong reconnaissance efforts • Detailed planning efforts • Rehearsals • Strong operational security Most likely means • High yield explosives • Vehicle delivery Most difficult • Unconventional weapons WMD VBIED Consequence IED Probability

  28. AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats Al Qaeda of today is not the Al Qaeda of yesterday • Robust organization – Now global social movement • Strong command and control – Now loose direction • Operational freedom – Now focused on operational security • Dangerous organization – Now still extremely dangerous Questions??

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