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Update on the NBCEC Decision Support System

Update on the NBCEC Decision Support System. R. Mark Enns Department of Animal Sciences Colorado State University. What is Decision Support?.

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Update on the NBCEC Decision Support System

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  1. Update on the NBCEC Decision Support System R. Mark Enns Department of Animal Sciences Colorado State University

  2. What is Decision Support? • For many traits there are optimum levels of EPDs that are not the highest or lowest, but somewhere in between. The most valuable animal often represents a balance of EPDs for various traits. Richard M. Bourdon Understanding Animal Breeding

  3. Simulated Situation Current Cow Herd (EPD) Bulls Selected From Sire Summary Current (equilibrium) Cow Herd (EPD & Performance) Like Merit Bulls X X Daughter (equilibrium) Cow Herd (EPD & base mean Performance) Like Merit Bulls Base Cow-calf outputs & inputs X Simulated Cow-calf outputs & inputs Current Modeling Approach Base

  4. Decision Support Model • Goals • User friendly and simple while remaining as accurate and powerful as possible • Alternative to Indexes • Allows producers to customize to fit their own production system • ‘Selection by Simulation’ • Automated with online sire summaries • Include only traits which economically effect production B. Brigham

  5. Current Model Assumptions • Developed for cow/calf production • Calves are sold at weaning • Cow herd reaches equilibrium • Simulates a herd of daughters • No breed effects • Eliminated with MBE

  6. Other Considerations • The system should not be used to compare bulls of differing breed compositions • Does not currently account for heterosis • Must be cognizant of the differences in EPD produced by each breed • Stayability • Ramifications of having/not having

  7. How important is reproductive ability? • The largest contributor to profitability of the cow/calf operation. • Ponzoni and Newman, 1989; Melton, 1995

  8. Net Income Herd Stayability Change in net income ($) per 1000 base cow herd -- stayability Stayability EPD

  9. Change in number of mature cows– stayability

  10. Sale weight Weaning weight direct Weaning weight maternal Cow weight Sale of cull cows Yearling weight Sale of open heifers Maintenance energy req. Number of cows Feed costs Heifer pregnancy and stayability Age structure WW of calves number of animals for sale/replacements ERT’s used in the DSS

  11. ERT’s used in the model and their influence • Calving Ease • Direct and Maternal • Number of calves • Costs of assistance • Additional • Birth weight (part of growth curve—feed req.)

  12. Red Angus Example:Next release (beta) Most complete set of EPD for the Economically Relevant Traits

  13. Scenario #2 • Keep cow numbers constant

  14. Scenario #3 • Herd only experiences 10% calving difficulty • All else constant • EPD • Costs • Prices received

  15. Rank of bulls under different scenarios

  16. Outcomes Customized selections for these particular management scenarios based on economics of those decisions

  17. Ert.agsci.colostate.edu

  18. Future additions • Price slide (only interface remaining) • Discounted gene flow • Post-weaning model (prototype done) • Heterosis effects/MBE EPD • Streamlining input of EPD • Risk analysis that accounts for differences in accuracy of EPD • Yearling vs proven sires

  19. Questions?

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