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Simulation modelling Case study: Victoria WAS Scenarios Discussion Questions throughout please!. Providing quantitative decision support tools and services to address complex organizational and societal issues. What is Simulation Modelling and why use it?. Try something out ahead of time….

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Providing quantitative decision support tools and services to address complex organizational and societal issues.


What is Simulation Modelling and why use it?

Try something out ahead of time…

  • To learn the impact of various actions

  • To play out different scenarios

  • To gain understanding and insight

…make better plans and decisions.

www.whatiftechnologies.com


Whatif physical economy modelling approach
whatIf? Physical Economy Modelling Approach

  • Whole system modelling

  • Process as fundamental concept

  • Physical substrate

  • Behaviour/Control

  • Stocks and Flows

  • Coherence (user imputed causality)

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Model builder
Model Builder

modelling suite

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Model building overview
Model Building Overview

design

  • Interactive process for designing and building models

  • Build a customized model specific to analytical needs

  • Technology transfer may occur throughout

model coding

calibration and

data assembly

scenario

building

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Whatif benefits
whatIf? Benefits

  • Transparency

  • Corporate Memory

  • Scenario Management

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We have linked physical whole economy models
We have linked physical whole-economy models

  • Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF)

    • all economy

    • energy end-use (residential, industrial…)

    • materials flows

  • Victorian Regional Stocks and Flows Framework (VRSFF)

    • demography

    • land-use (~12 types, built and non-built by ~2,600 areas)

    • electricity generation

  • Water Accounting System (WAS)

    • water requirements

    • water provision

    • energy for water system

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Drivers and interactions
Drivers and Interactions

  • Demographics

  • Land-use

  • Electricity production

  • Water resources and use

    • a complete water account

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Water account system compares demand supply
Water Account System compares ‘demand’ & ‘supply’

  • ‘Flow’ of physical implications

    • integrates use and availability

    • inputs taken from ASFF and VRSFF

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Geographic context
Geographic Context

  • Victoria is in southern Australia

  • Melbourne is the capital city of ~4 million people

  • 3 key dams (each >106 Gl)

    • Dartmouth (NE)

    • Eildon (N)

    • Thomson (SE)

      • supplies most of Melbourne

  • Murray-Darling Basin and Victoria overlap

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Victorian historical data sources
Victorian historical data sources

Water

DWRV Water Resource Handbook

BRS 1985 Review

ABS Water Accounts (1994-97, 2001, 2005)

DSE State Water Report 2003

SoE 1988

MDBC reports – flows, dam levels

BoM rainfall; Melbourne Water; NLWRA catchment flows

Energy intensity of water services; Energy used

Demography

Census 1966-2001; education statistics; health statistics

Land-use

Zoning Plan

historical maps of Melbourne

Census (2001)

Energy

ESAA generation/production capacity ~ 1995-2004

ABS Energy Accounts 1982-1991

specific energy consumption data 1974-1995

Yallourn & Loy Yang data & Electricity Commission data ~1920-2004

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Water account system description
Water Account System - Description

“Design Approach” [Gault et al, Futures, 1987]

“supply v demand” structure

traceable physical relationships (coordination)

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Water account system requirements
Water Account System - Requirements

  • water requirements

    • by ~14 sectors

    • in 79 Local Government Areas

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Water account system availability
Water Account System - Availability

  • water availability

    • in 29 major river basins

    • across 14 land use types

    • into surface, aquifers, evapo-transpiration

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Water account system disposition
Water Account System - Disposition

  • water puts and takes

    • into/from rivers, dams, aquifers

    • centralised or self-extracted

    • desalination option

    • quality: unpolluted, storm-, grey-, black-water

    • treatment to primary, secondary, tertiary levels

    • transfers between the 29 river basins

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Water account system dam river balance
Water Account System – Dam/River Balance

  • water storage stock and river flows

    • all additions and extractions brought together

    • diversions from river to dam

    • release of storage down river

    • river network included

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Water account system energy required
Water Account System – Energy Required

  • energy for water services

    • potable treatment & pumping

    • treatment & pumping for recycling

      (sewage, other discharges, stormwater)

    • local re-use

    • desalination

    • inter-region transfers

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Key common assumptions
Key common assumptions

population growth

4.9 million by 2050

Victoria in Future

climate change

“medium” scenario = 1.5 C change (rel to 1990) by 2050

CSIRO

intensity of water use

marginal increase response to climate change

irrigated agriculture, and residential outdoor

DSE

electricity consumption / generation

growth at 2% pa per capita

unchanged technology

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Other key scenario assumptions
Other key scenario assumptions

water end-use

no change (2a, 2b)

solar HWS, efficient shower, wash machine (1a, 1b, 2c, 2d)

in 80% new dwellings, 20% existing dwellings

water services

conventional catchment (1a, 2a, 2c)

desalination (to meet new demand) (2b, 2d)

alternative (1b)

rainwater tanks

in 20% dwellings

1 kL

re-use of industrial wastewater

20% of flow

re-use of wastewater at central treatment

20% of flow

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