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2012 Crop Market Outlook

2012 Crop Market Outlook. AFBF Commodity Outlook Conference Baltimore, Maryland Oct. 11, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB.

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2012 Crop Market Outlook

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  1. 2012 Crop Market Outlook AFBF Commodity Outlook Conference Baltimore, Maryland Oct. 11, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  5. U.S. Cotton Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  6. Price Ratios Since May 1

  7. Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Projected Corn Yields

  9. Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  10. Projected Soybean Yields

  11. Objective Soybean Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  12. Winter Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  13. Other Spring Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  14. Durum Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  15. Projected Cotton Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  16. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  17. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  18. World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  19. World Cotton Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  20. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  21. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  22. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  23. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  24. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  25. Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  26. Cotton Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  27. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  28. Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE-EIA

  29. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  30. Current Corn Futures 6.90 5.93 5.58 Source: CME Group, 10/10/2012

  31. Current Soybean Futures 14.37 12.70 12.29 Source: CME Group, 10/10/2012

  32. Current Wheat Futures 8.09 8.16 Source: KCBOT, 10/10/2012

  33. Current Cotton Futures Source: ICE, 10/10/2012

  34. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

  35. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  36. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  37. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture issues • Biofuel and export strength • Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing

  38. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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