OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The consequences of Inaction EEB Annual Conference Brussels, 1 October 2012

1. OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The consequences of InactionEEB Annual Conference Brussels, 1 October 2012 Kumi Kitamori, Counsellor, OECD Environment Directorate

2. Linking Economy and Environment Population & demographics Capital supply Natural resources Economic growth Energy efficiency Yield efficiency Fuel prices Energy use Land use Bioenergy Local air pollution(under construction) GHG emissions Deforestation Health & environment Water stress & water quality Biodiversity Climate change

3. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: World economy will nearly quadruple by 2050 Projections for real gross domestic product: Baseline, 2010-2050 Note: values using constant 2010 purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates. Source: (OECD, 2012) OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from ENV-Linkages.

4. CLIMATE CHANGE:GHG emissions to increase by 50% by 2050 GHG emissions by region, Baseline Source: (OECD, 2012) OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from ENV-Linkages.

5. CLIMATE CHANGE: Human and economic costs of more extreme weather events, crops & infrastructure at risk Change in annual temperature between 1990 and 2050 Source: (OECD, 2012). OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from IMAGE model suite

6. HEALTH & ENV : Urban air pollution to become the top environmental cause of premature deaths by 2050 Global premature deaths from selected environmental risks: Baseline, 2010 to 2050 premature deaths from particulate air pollution to double to 3.6 million/yr by 2050 worldwide Source: (OECD, 2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2005; output from IMAGE

7. HEALTH & ENV: OECD group are likely to have one of the highest premature death rates from ground-level ozone Premature deaths linked to ground-level ozone worldwide: Baseline Number of deaths per million inhabitants Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE

8. WATER: Global water demand to increase by 55% by 2050 Global water demand: Baseline scenario Source: (OECD, 2012), OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE

9. WATER: Water pollution from urban sewage to increase 3-fold Nitrogen effluents from wastewater: baseline Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE

10. BIODIVERSITY:Global biodiversity to decline by a further 10% by 2050 Biodiversity: Terrestrial mean species abundance (MSA)by region, Baseline Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE

11. BIODIVERSITY Effects of different pressures on terrestrial MSA: Baseline, 2010 to 2050 Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE

12. POLICY ACTION: What green growth policies to avoid a bleak future? • Make pollution more costly than greener alternatives • Value and price the natural assets and ecosystem services • Remove environmentally harmful subsidies • Devise effective regulations and standards • Encourage green innovation • Facilitate better consumer choices • Mainstream green growth in economic & sectoral policies! • Maximise synergies and co-benefits

13. Thank you! www.oecd.org/environment/outlookto2050