PURE Experimental Zone

1. PURE Probability, Uncertainty and Risk in the Environment PURE Experimental Zone Katherine Royse, Andrew Hughes John Hillier, Lei Wang and Anubha Singh http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

2. PURE Probability, Uncertainty and Risk in the Environment Aim: Toincrease the impact of NERC’s Natural Hazard research, and to take aleadership role in changing how uncertainty and risk is assessed and quantified across the Natural Hazards Two Parts: Research Programme Research and Knowledge Exchange Network Goals : • Improve the assessment and quantification of uncertainty and risk in NH • Stimulate good practice guidance and standardisation of the assessment and quantificationof uncertainty and risk across the NH community. PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

3. Why Now? Mythe water treatment works, 2007, threaten drinking water supplies to 350,000 people

4. Global Economic losses related to natural hazards are increasing • 2010 : US$130 Billion, Earthquakes Haiti, Chilli, China Iceland, floods Pakistan • 2011: US$380 Billion ,Earthquakes Japan, New Zealand, Floods Thailand, Wind Storms USA • 2012: US$160 Billion, Hurricane Sandy and drought USA, Earthquake in Italy • Hurricane Andrew 1992 - Katrina 2005 : US$31.3bn -US$40-60bn insured losses PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

5. Catastrophe Modeling • What is it ? • A tool that quantifies risk • How does it do it? • Examines insured values that are exposed to catastrophic perils such as hurricanes, earthquakes and terrorism • Why do we need it? • Aids management decision making on • Pricing and underwriting • Reinsurance buying • Rating Agencies • Portfolio management PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

6. Earthquake, volcanic eruption Tropical storms, hurricanes Wind storms Types of Catastrophe: Natural & Man Made World hazard map: Munich Re (2009) Other natural catastrophes: Floods (river and coastal) Tsunamis Heat waves and droughts Wildfires Hail storms Landslides, avalanches Man-made catastrophes: Fires, Explosions Road traffic and rail disasters Aviation and space catastrophes Mining accidences Shipping accidences Collapse of buildings / bridges Terrorism PURE e.g. 7 bn USD in 2008 (Guy Carpenter,2009) http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

7. LimitationsCatastrophe models provide a guide to the risk not answers to precise calculations of the Risk • Catastrophe models are inherently limited by limitations in our scientific knowledge • Every model is based on simplifying assumptions and there is significant uncertainty around many of those assumptions • Catastrophe model results are very sensitive to certain assumptions which is why the model loss estimates vary so significantly for different, scientifically valid assumptions PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

8. The Experimental Zone What is it ? Why do we need it ? How do I use it ? PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

9. What is the Experimental Zone ? A Platform which allows for the sharing and linking of data, models, and analytical and visualisation tools (in real-time) across the internet Provides an environment and the technology to enable users to test model compositions and demonstrate the effects of model component choice on end results Facilitate collaboration between research groups and enable cross-disciplinary models to be linked Allow for the integration of commercial and open source data and model components Simplify sensitivity and uncertainty analysis by allowing for the easy substitution of one model component with another PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

10. Why do we need it ? New European regulation under Solvency II requires that firms understand the assumptions made in all models used as part of their solvency calculations and management activity It will lower the barriers to access to current research developments and the scientists themselves. The Zone will allow for a greater access to a range of models in an open system Allow the exploration of uncertainty due to different compositions – model comparison, model critique and understanding model limitations Moving towards “Plug and Play” component driven system which means that model components can be swapped in and out of the compositions and that everyone can bring in ideas PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

11. The Website PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

12. Developing a Groundwater Catastrophe model for the Marlborough and the Berkshire Downs PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

13. Background to GW flooding • Problem definition & issues • Recent events 1993/94, 2000-01 & 2002-03 • Insurance claims est. £M50-100 per year • Brighton 2000/01 event £800k not including damage to railway • Most vulnerable properties (~383,000) located on exposed Chalk aquifers of SE England, although other places do flood! PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

14. The Black Box PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

15. Catastrophe Model Components Stochastic Module Hazard Module Vulnerability Module Financial Module Source: RMS • Based on historical data • Large catalogue of simulated events generated from historical parameters & scientific predictions • Local intensity of hazard parameter for each cat event • Geological & topographical features of a region included • Converts hazard parameter to loss: “damage functions” • Includes factors or “modifiers” eg Sum insured, Construction, Occupancy, Year built • Applies deductibles and limits • Calculate losses on different financial perspectives PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

16. How will IEM techniques help ? 1. Lack of openness has restricted the ability of the insurance community to exploit new research / willingness to try new things 2. New European regulation under Solvency II requires that firms understand the assumptions made in all models used as part of their solvency calculations and management activity 3. Allow the exploration of uncertainty due to different compositions – model comparison and understanding limitations 4. Moving towards “Plug and Play” means that models can be swapped in and out of the composition 5. Allowsgreater access to a range of models – an open system 6. Scenario management – “Manager components” PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

17. Used OpenMI to link models together • Fluid earth : – Software Development Kit (SDK) • Pippistrelleto provides an interface for linking OpenMI compliant models – PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

18. Study area PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

19. How it works - 1 • Groundwater model is run for 30 years to provide location of groundwater flooding (GW head above land surface) • Ranking of GW flood events produced (equal basis) • Maps of GW flooding produced PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

20. How it works - 2 • Distribution of houses matched against flood extent for each event identified • Total cost for each event produced by calculating flood depth and relating that to cost of damage • All events are ranked by total cost and OEP curves produced PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

21. PURE www.fluidearth.net http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

22. Modelling Co. Ins. Co. Portfolio CAT Modelling PURE Components are interchangeable: potentially anywhere in the world! Video of setting up the GW Flooding composition is available on PURE Expt Zone

23. Results Occurrence exceedance probability curve is the cumulative loss distribution for any one occurrence in a given year i.e. the probability that losses from a single event will exceed a given amount Flood depth- Damage Curves PURE

24. Results • Other perils can be modelled • All these components are available from the Experimental Zone • Videos for constructing the CAT model are on the Zone too • Technology and help to make models linkable are available – via FluidEarth SDK PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

25. What next ? • We are now in the process of developing phase 2 • Our vision for the future: • Developing a ‘playground’ to trial out new ideas • Open and closed zones • Online Catalogue of available data, models, software, visualisation and analytical tools • Web-enabled software tools (Pipistrelle) PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

26. Developing a ‘Playground’ to trail out new ideas • Quick to set up new compositions; particularly useful for un-modelled perils • Allows users to test out a variety of different model compositions • Direct contact with researchers and model developers • Provide access to a world wide community PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

27. Open and Closed areas The experimental zone will be developed on an open access / open source principle as far as possible Closed areas will be developed for those users working on more sensitive projects Provide users with the ability to choose how open there individual components are PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

28. Lowering the barriers to use Make the zone accessible and easy to find by all users Improve and develop user manuals and videos Provide a catalogue of linkable components PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

29. Web-enabled Software tools Going forward we will remove the need to download tools onto your own PC Access to tools e.g. Pipistrelle will be via the Experimental zones own server Develop the zone so that it has an elastic infrastructure to meet the demands of the user community PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

30. Online Catalogue & Toolkit Community generated content Case studies Linkable model and data components Publically/commercially available data and toolkits Visualisation and analytical tools PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

31. Initiating discussions with the user community The Experimental zone needs to work for a very varied community Before the development of part 2 starts we will work with a small user group to understand how they could use to zone If your interested please get in contact PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/

32. Summary • The Experimental Zone • It is a Platform which allows for the sharing and linking of data, models, and analytical and visualisation tools (in real-time) across the internet using OpenMI • It will simplify sensitivity and uncertainty analysis by allowing for the easy substitution of one model component with another • It will Facilitate collaboration between research groups and enable cross-disciplinary models to be linked • It will allow for the integration of commercial and open source data and model components PURE http://pureexperimentalzone.org/