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Prospects for Food & Water Availability and Quality A view based on Climate Change. Bruce A. McCarl Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University [email protected], http//ageco.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl. Climate Change is Happening. Let's Avoid Climate Change.

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Prospects for Food & Water Availability and Quality A view based on Climate Change

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Prospects for food water availability and quality a view based on climate change

Prospects for

Food & Water Availability and Quality

A view based on Climate Change

Bruce A. McCarl

Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University

[email protected], http//ageco.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl

Climate Change

is Happening

Let's Avoid

Climate Change

Effects/Adaptation

Mitigation

Presented at a meeting on

Megaregions + MetroProsperity: Sustainable Economics for the Texas Triangle

During panel on Food & water: Are we secure?

Houston, September 24, 2009


Prospects for food water availability and quality a view based on climate change

Coverage

Do we have a food issue now?

What will climate change do to food?

What will climate change due to water?

Fresh

Sea level

What are challenges of climate change

mitigation and adaptation


Prospects for food water availability and quality a view based on climate change

Do we have a food issue now?

The Texas Megaregion is Food Deficit and has no prospects of being any other way. We import.

As a state we are food surplus likely only in cotton ( 30%)

beef (16%)

wheat (5-7%)

Broilers (6%)

None of these are big enough in triangle area


Prospects for food water availability and quality a view based on climate change

1997-2008

Some say recent data shows this is over

Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner (2009),Is the climate warming or cooling?, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press. (accepted 30 March 2009)


Prospects for food water availability and quality a view based on climate change

1997-2008

1987-1996

Global Average Climate Change

Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner (2009),Is the climate warming or cooling?, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press. (accepted 30 March 2009)

Ups and downs in global atmospheric temperatures over a decade are not easy to interpret

1977-1989


Prospects for food water availability and quality a view based on climate change

Degree of climate change

Precipitation

Precipitation is increasing

but not here

Amount from wet days is increasing

Subtropics forecast to be drier


Prospects for food water availability and quality a view based on climate change

Degree of climate change - What is projected

  • Less water

Texas in relatively severely affected area


Prospects for food water availability and quality a view based on climate change

Live with it - Agriculture

Nationally more crops – Texas 25% less acres

Cold limited acres

CO2 effect

Source McCarl work for US National Assessment

Table 2 National crop sensitivity over all crops giving average yield change in percent to 2030 -- GCM behind Climate Scenario -- Hadley Canadian CSIRO REGCM Corn Belt 24.02 18.23 6.05 6.58 Great Plains 25.29 17.28 3.67 4.82Lake States 43.75 53.03 9.34 11.84 Northeast 9.48-2.072.13 4.45Rocky Mountains 27.74 19.37 18.27 15.04 Pacific Southwest 17.76 21.44 15.58 15.05 Pacific Northwest 65.42 17.01 17.22 18.30 South Central 13.25-6.06 -0.71 -0.79Southeast 10.00 -3.16 3.84 2.40South West 21.66 14.69 3.38 2.60National 25.14 16.51 6.02 6.46Red signifies results below mean

http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/papers/778.pdf


Prospects for food water availability and quality a view based on climate change

Sea Level – Coastal

IPCC 0.18-0.6 meters (no ice melt)

Greenland 7 meters

Antarctica 55 meters

Scenarios 1-5 meters

Houston 13 meters

http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRMapsIndex.html

http://www.glo.state.tx.us/coastal/erosion/reimbursement/pdf/Surfside_Beach_historic_shorelines.pdf


Prospects for food water availability and quality a view based on climate change

Mitigation of climate change

Why is this happening

  • Pre industrial - 275Counting Non CO2

  • - 345this is increase almost doubles

  • 2007 - 380+

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html


Prospects for food water availability and quality a view based on climate change

Climate change mitigation – Texas and GHGs

2003 State by State Energy related CO2 emissions -- Texas wins

Emissions growing

Most emissions from energy

US EPA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html

US EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html


Why adapt inevitability

Why Adapt - Inevitability

800

700

600

500

[1] The best estimate of climate sensitivity is 3ºC [WG 1 SPM].

[2] Note that global mean temperature at equilibrium is different from expected global mean temperature at the time of stabilization of GHG concentrations due to the inertia of the climate system. For the majority of scenarios assessed, stabilisation of GHG concentrations occurs between 2100 and 2150.

[3] Ranges correspond to the 15th to 85th percentile of the post-TAR scenario distribution. CO2 emissions are shown so multi-gas scenarios can be compared with CO2-only scenarios.


Prospects for food water availability and quality a view based on climate change

Basic Resources

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptationand Vulnerability, http://www.ipcc.ch/.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007: Mitigation , http://www.ipcc.ch/.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - The Scientific Basis, http://www.ipcc.ch/.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Synthesis Report, http://www.ipcc.ch/.

National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program , Climate Change Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Overview: 2000http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overview.htm

National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program , Climate Change Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Foundation: 2000 http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/foundation.htm

http://agecon.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl/papers.htm


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