Climate Indicator with Stakeholder Assessments of Future Desired Emission Paths

1. Climate Indicator with Stakeholder Assessments of Future Desired Emission Paths Torgeir Ericson, CICERO Norway 9-10 June 2011, Tampere

2. Content • Norwegian sustainable development indicators • 3 reasons for new type of indicators • Suggested indicator

3. 18 Norwegian sustainable development indicators

4. Weaknesses of the indicators • No assessments on sustainable levels • No forward-looking • Difficult to understand • Little used

5. Indicators may be improved by participation, involvement and assessment on future desired development • Three explanations for this • Scientific data is only information, not knowledge • Postnormal science • We need projections and normative assessments

6. a)Scientific data is only information, not knowledge

7. Typical indicator But, is the development sustainable?

8. Typical indicator The figure gives an impression that this is the sustainable level

9. Typical indicator But, for all we know, ”sustainability” could be around here

10. Typical indicator Or here….

11. Typical indicator Or here….

12. Typical indicator

13. It would be possible to describe everything scientifically, but it would make no sense; it would be without meaning, as if you described a Beethoven symphony as a variation of wave pressure Einstein To create meaning we must have both the “objective” measurements and the “subjective” interpretations/assessments. Without each other an indicator makes no sense and is without meaning.

14. Indicator with several perspectives on the sustainable level ”Sustainable” level: perspective 1 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 2 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 3 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 4 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 5 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 6 …In this case with much disagreements

15. Indicator with several perspectives on the sustainable level ”Sustainable” level: perspective 1 ”Bærekraftig” nivå: perspektiv 4 ”Bærekraftig” nivå: perspektiv 5 ”Bærekraftig” nivå: perspektiv 2 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 3 …In this case with much agreement

16. Indicator with several perspectives on the sustainable level ”Sustainable” level: perspective 1 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 2 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 3 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 4 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 5 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 6 …In this case with much disagreements on the exact sustainable level, but still with agreements thatthe development is not sustainable

17. Indicator with several perspectives on the sustainable level ”Sustainable” level: perspective 1 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 2 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 3 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 4 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 5 ”Sustainable” level: perspective 6

18. b) Postnormal science • When • 'facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent’ • Ravetz & Funtowicz • (e.g. climate, biodversity) • … decision making is difficult

19. Can we take this into account in indicators? Involve people • Create a shared context/framework • Higher degree of understanding of challenges may emerge • A larger share may feel ownership to solutions, • Popper’s Open Society (1966):when experts cannot predict then a process of decision-making that is as open as possible to knowledge and ideas from all sectors of society is most effective Suggestion: indicate plurality of legitimate perspectives on the issue at hand in the indicator

20. c)We need projections and normative assessments

21. Stiglitz report, 2009 (Stiglitz, Sen Fitoussi ) • Message 1: Measuring sustainability differs from standard statistical practice in a fundamental way: to do it adequately, we need projections, not only observations. • Message 2: Measuring sustainability also entails prior responses to normative questions. In this respect too, it strongly differs from standard statistical activity

22. Construction of indicator

30. Conclusion • Existing sustainable development indicators tells little of whether the development is sustainable or not • Indicators with forward looking assessments may be informative and increase attention and discussions and involvement