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Content. What is CAPRI ? CAPRI data base Data Sources Data Compilation Data Coverage The economic Model Structure Projection approach Some results. What is CAPRI ?. C ommon A gricultural P olicy R egionalised I mpact analysis on regionalised level (NUTS II)

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Content

Content

  • What is CAPRI ?

  • CAPRI data base

    • Data Sources

    • Data Compilation

    • Data Coverage

  • The economic Model

    • Structure

    • Projection approach

  • Some results


What is capri

What is CAPRI ?

  • Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact analysis

    • on regionalised level (NUTS II)

    • on whole agricultural sector: all outputs/inputs covered

    • based on a quantitative economic modelling system

    • developed and maintained by an independent network of research institutions

    • mainly funded by DG-RSRCH framework programs


Capri modelling system

CAPRI Modelling system

  • Modelling system consists of

    • Regionalised data base

    • Supply Module

    • Market Module

    • Exploitation and Reporting tools


Capri data base

CAPRI data base

  • Combines consistently time series

    • at EU/national/regional/farm type level

    • on herds/acreages, production, market balances

    • on prices, economic accounts

    • on input & output coefficients

    • on policy instruments


Data sources

Data sources

  • As far as possible uniform sources

  • EUROSTAT: market balances, slaughtering statistics, land use statistics, herd countings

  • Farm Accounting Data Network:Production program for farm type module,Estimation of input demand functions

  • Gaps closed by regional and national statistics

  • Input/Output relations, emission coefficients etc. from different sources


Data compilation

Data compilation

  • Own “base model” ensures consistent and closed data base

  • Gaps are closed and inconsistencies removed

    • by simultaneous estimation techniques

    • under constraints capturing consistency requirements


Data coverage for herd sizes i

Data coverage for Herd Sizes I

  • Animal herds for

    • dairy cows, other cows

    • cattle raising (male & female calves, raising heifers)

    • sows

    • milk sheep & goat

    • laying hens

    • yearly averages over all available countings


Data coverage for herd sizes ii

Data coverage for Herd Sizes II

  • Slaughtered heads for

    • calves fattening (male/female)

    • male adult fattening (male/female)

    • pig fattening

    • sheep & goat fattening

    • poultry fattening

  • estimates regarding the length of production cycle allow calculation of herd sizes


Consistency requirements

Consistency requirements

  • Intertemporal flow model for herds: Slaughtered + herd size changes + exported animals = raised/born animals in t(-1) + imported animals

  • Slaughter weight * slaughtered heads = production

  • Market balances for meats, milk, eggs

  • Fat and protein balances for milk and milk products

  • Plausible number of siblings (cows, sows, mother sheep&goat)

  • Male/Female relationship for calves

  • Plausible slaughter weights and output coefficients


Herd flow model for cattle

Milk Cows

SucklerCows

BreedingHeifers

Youngcow

Beef

RaisingfemaleCalves

FatteningfemaleCalves

FatteningHeifers

High/Low

FemaleCalf

Youngheifer

RaisingmaleCalves

Youngbull

MaleCalf

FatteningmaleCalves

Male adultcattle

High/Low

Beef

Veal

Herd flow model for cattle


Ammonia emissions

Nitrogenfrom animals

Grazing

NH3

stable

NH3

storage

NH3

NH3

Mineral N

NH3

CropN Need

Organic Napplication

Ammonia Emissions


Content

Modelling system

AggregatedSupply &Feed demand

ExploitationEnv. IndicatorsWelfare analysis

FEOGA budget

Market ModuleSpatialMulti-Commodity Model11 regional aggregatesplus all EU MS States

Supply Module200 Regional or1050 Farm Type

Programming Models

Perennial Sub-Module

Premiums

Prices

Policy ModulesCAP Premiums(base areas, ...)

Young Animal

Market ModuleLinked MSProgramming Models

HerdsAcreages

Aggregation


Projections

Projections

  • “Baseline”:

  • developments of agricultural markets, prices,yields, input demand, cropping patterns, herd sizes ...under continuation of current policy setting

  • model mechanism + trend analysis+ judgement + careful look at other projections

  • model ensures closed balances for inputs and outputs (including nutrients, feed and young animals)

  • and matching price developments


Reporting

Reporting

  • Java based Mapping tool

  • HTML reporting tools (XML + XSL)

  • Tables in DBMS


Stocking density with cattle

Stocking density with cattle

heads/ha UAAR, average 1994


Methane emissions from animals

Methane emissions from animals

In kg/ha UAA, average 1998


Methane emissions from animals1

Methane emissions from animals

Kg/ha UAAPercentage change, 2009/1998


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