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Content. What is CAPRI ? CAPRI data base Data Sources Data Compilation Data Coverage The economic Model Structure Projection approach Some results. What is CAPRI ?. C ommon A gricultural P olicy R egionalised I mpact analysis on regionalised level (NUTS II)

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Presentation Transcript
content
Content
  • What is CAPRI ?
  • CAPRI data base
    • Data Sources
    • Data Compilation
    • Data Coverage
  • The economic Model
    • Structure
    • Projection approach
  • Some results
what is capri
What is CAPRI ?
  • Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact analysis
    • on regionalised level (NUTS II)
    • on whole agricultural sector: all outputs/inputs covered
    • based on a quantitative economic modelling system
    • developed and maintained by an independent network of research institutions
    • mainly funded by DG-RSRCH framework programs
capri modelling system
CAPRI Modelling system
  • Modelling system consists of
    • Regionalised data base
    • Supply Module
    • Market Module
    • Exploitation and Reporting tools
capri data base
CAPRI data base
  • Combines consistently time series
    • at EU/national/regional/farm type level
    • on herds/acreages, production, market balances
    • on prices, economic accounts
    • on input & output coefficients
    • on policy instruments
data sources
Data sources
  • As far as possible uniform sources
  • EUROSTAT: market balances, slaughtering statistics, land use statistics, herd countings
  • Farm Accounting Data Network: Production program for farm type module, Estimation of input demand functions
  • Gaps closed by regional and national statistics
  • Input/Output relations, emission coefficients etc. from different sources
data compilation
Data compilation
  • Own “base model” ensures consistent and closed data base
  • Gaps are closed and inconsistencies removed
    • by simultaneous estimation techniques
    • under constraints capturing consistency requirements
data coverage for herd sizes i
Data coverage for Herd Sizes I
  • Animal herds for
    • dairy cows, other cows
    • cattle raising (male & female calves, raising heifers)
    • sows
    • milk sheep & goat
    • laying hens
    • yearly averages over all available countings
data coverage for herd sizes ii
Data coverage for Herd Sizes II
  • Slaughtered heads for
    • calves fattening (male/female)
    • male adult fattening (male/female)
    • pig fattening
    • sheep & goat fattening
    • poultry fattening
  • estimates regarding the length of production cycle allow calculation of herd sizes
consistency requirements
Consistency requirements
  • Intertemporal flow model for herds: Slaughtered + herd size changes + exported animals = raised/born animals in t(-1) + imported animals
  • Slaughter weight * slaughtered heads = production
  • Market balances for meats, milk, eggs
  • Fat and protein balances for milk and milk products
  • Plausible number of siblings (cows, sows, mother sheep&goat)
  • Male/Female relationship for calves
  • Plausible slaughter weights and output coefficients
herd flow model for cattle

Milk Cows

SucklerCows

BreedingHeifers

Youngcow

Beef

RaisingfemaleCalves

FatteningfemaleCalves

FatteningHeifers

High/Low

FemaleCalf

Youngheifer

RaisingmaleCalves

Youngbull

MaleCalf

FatteningmaleCalves

Male adultcattle

High/Low

Beef

Veal

Herd flow model for cattle
ammonia emissions

Nitrogenfrom animals

Grazing

NH3

stable

NH3

storage

NH3

NH3

Mineral N

NH3

CropN Need

Organic Napplication

Ammonia Emissions
slide12

Modelling system

AggregatedSupply &Feed demand

ExploitationEnv. IndicatorsWelfare analysis

FEOGA budget

Market ModuleSpatialMulti-Commodity Model11 regional aggregatesplus all EU MS States

Supply Module200 Regional or1050 Farm Type

Programming Models

Perennial Sub-Module

Premiums

Prices

Policy ModulesCAP Premiums(base areas, ...)

Young Animal

Market ModuleLinked MSProgramming Models

HerdsAcreages

Aggregation

projections
Projections
  • “Baseline”:
  • developments of agricultural markets, prices,yields, input demand, cropping patterns, herd sizes ...under continuation of current policy setting
  • model mechanism + trend analysis+ judgement + careful look at other projections
  • model ensures closed balances for inputs and outputs (including nutrients, feed and young animals)
  • and matching price developments
reporting
Reporting
  • Java based Mapping tool
  • HTML reporting tools (XML + XSL)
  • Tables in DBMS
stocking density with cattle
Stocking density with cattle

heads/ha UAAR, average 1994

methane emissions from animals
Methane emissions from animals

In kg/ha UAA, average 1998

methane emissions from animals1
Methane emissions from animals

Kg/ha UAAPercentage change, 2009/1998

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