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C HIN A GRO. Methodological Issues in Feed Balance Accounting for the Livestock Sector in China. Policy Decision Support for Sustainable Adapatation of China‘s Agriculture to Globalization. CHINAGRO Training Course (II): September 23-24, 2003, Beijing Günther Fischer

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Methodological issues in feed balance accounting for the livestock sector in china

CHINAGRO

Methodological Issues in Feed Balance Accounting for the Livestock Sector in China

Policy Decision Support for Sustainable Adapatation of China‘s Agriculture to Globalization

CHINAGRO Training Course (II):

September 23-24, 2003, Beijing

Günther Fischer

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria


Overview

CHINAGRO

OVERVIEW

  • Background

  • Methodology - overview

  • Livestock types

  • Feed requirements

  • Feed sources

  • Feed balances

  • Conclusions


CHINAGRO

LIVESTOCK TYPES

  • Large animals

    • Cattle & Yaks

    • Milk cows

    • Buffalos

    • Horses

    • Donkeys & Mules

    • Camels

  • Sheep & Goats

  • Pigs

  • Poultry (meat)

  • Poultry (eggs)


Livestock Numbers andRegional Distribution

1997


CHINAGRO

LIVESTOCK TYPES

  • Vary by:

  • Herd structure

  • Nutritional requirements

  • Input/Output relations

     Express in common unit

  • Conversion in two steps:

  • Convert to Systems Livestock Unit

  • (SLSU = breeding female)

  • Convert SLSU to Reference Livestock Unit

  • (RSLU = animal requiring 5600 Mcal/year)


CHINAGRO

LIVESTOCK HERD STRUCTURE

Source: Zheng et al., 1994


CHINAGRO

Livestock Heads converted to Reference Units (RLSU)


CHINAGRO

FEEDING SYSTEMS

  • Vary with:

  • Feed resources

  • Scale level

  • Input intensity

  • Productivity

  • Grazing systems

    • Ruminants (excl. buffalo)

  • Confined systems

    • Traditional Household

    • Specialized Household

    • Large-scale


CHINAGRO

Livestock By Feeding System

(RSLU in 1997)

RUMINANTS

PIGS and POULTRY


CHINAGRO

FEED SOURCES

  • Grass and forage

    • Natural grassland

    • Improved grassland

    • Sown pasture

  • Crop residues

  • Crop by-products

    • Bran and husks

    • Cake and meals

    • Pulp, stillage, molasses

  • Household wastes

  • Primary feed commodities


CHINAGRO

FEED SOURCES (1)

Grass and Forage

Fg = Fng + Fig + Fsg

where

Fng = Ang • Yng• Dng• Cnu• Eng

Fig = …

Fg,Fng, Fig, Fsg feed energy supply (Mcal)

Yng, Yig, Ysg yield (kg/ha)

Ang, Aig, Asg utilizable grassland (ha)

Dng, Dig, Dsg dry matter content (share)

Cnu, Ciu, Csu utilization coefficient (share)

Eng, Eig, Esg digestible energy content (Mcal/kg DM)



CHINAGRO

Crop Production Systems Zones

Pasture Suitability


CHINAGRO

Utilization rate:

(share)

Cnu 0.40 – 0.60

Ciu 0.70

Csu 0.75

Dry matter content:

(percent)

Dng 90.5 – 92.6

Dsg 89.5 – 92.8

Digestible energy:

(Mcal/kg DM)

Eng 1.59 – 2.53

Esg 2.26 – 2.51


CHINAGRO

FEED SOURCES (2)

Crop residues, by-products, wastes

Fr = Q • Cr • Cru • Er

Fb = (Q • Cp) • Cb • Cbu • Eb

Fw = Q • Cw • Cwu • Ew

Fr, Fb, Fw feed energy supply (Mcal)

Q production (kg DM)

Cr, Cb, Cw feed factor (kg/kg primary prod.)

Cru, Cbu, Cwu utilization coefficients (share)

Cp processing coefficient (share)

Er, Eb, Ew digestible energy content (Mcal/kg DM)


By-product factor, Utilization rate, Nutrition composition

Residue factor, Utilization rate, Nutrition composition

CHINAGRO

Source: based on Zheng et al., 1994

Source: based on Zheng et al., 1994


CHINAGRO

Potential Feed Supply from Pasture, Residues, By-products and Wastes (mill.Mcal)


subject to:

where:

Eim … total feed requirement

Fj … total feed supply

fijm … feed use

pijm … feed use ‘prior’

i … livestock type

j … feed type

m … feeding mode

CHINAGRO

Cross-Entropy Feed-Mix Estimation


CHINAGRO

Feed Composition of Various Livestock Systems under Different Feeding Modes(minimum, reference, maximum percentage of feed sources in total DE)

Source: based on Zheng et al., 1994

G … grazing system

T … traditional household feeding

S … specialized household feeding

L … large-scale livestock farm


CHINAGRO

Regional Feed Balance in 1997 (mill.Mcal)


CHINAGRO

Average Feed Composition of Various Livestock Systems (all feeding modes; percentage of feed sources in total DE)


Feed Composition by Feeding Mode(percentage of feed sources in total DE)

GRAZING

CONFINED – TRADITIONAL

CONFINED - SPECIALIZED

CONFINED – LARGE FARM


CHINAGRO

Responses of temperature to increasing CO2 concentrations for various GCMs (China).

Change in average temperature (deg C)

Atmospheric CO2 abundance (ppm)


CHINAGRO

Correlations between temperature increase and precipitation change for various GCMs (China).

Precipitation change (%)

Change in average temperature (deg C)


CLIMATEDATABASE(Stations)

ELEVATION

3

7

1

4

LUTDESCRIPTION

CLIMATESCENARIOS

TERRAIN

SOIL

LAND COVER

ADMINISTR.

CROPCATALOG

2

CLIMATE GRIDS

MAX. TEMP.

5

DP, DT, DS,

DCO2, DRL

MIN. TEMP.

PRECIPITATION

SUNSHINE

THERMAL &

MOISTURE

PROFILE

GIS

10

11

CLIMATIC

REQUIREMENTS

CLIMATE

MATCHING

RULES

12

13

BIOMASS

AND YIELD

14

AGRO-

CLIMATIC

CONSTRAINTS

CHINAGRO

AEZ

GRID-CELL

DATABASE

Steps in AEZ Methodology – Part 1

6

A


Length of Growing Period

Reference Climate


Length of Growing Period

HadCM3 A2 2020s


Length of Growing Period

HadCM3 A2 2050s


Length of Growing Period

HadCM3 A2 2080s


CHINAGRO

Transition Matrix tabulating change in extents of LGP zones

HadCM3 Scenario A2 2080s compared to Reference Climate

Squ. km

Percent


Suitability for rain-fed pasture

Reference climate

HadCM3-A1FI, 2080


Impact of Climate Change on Pasture Suitability in China (% change)

for HadCM3, CSIRO, ECHAM, CGM2 and NCAR scenarios, 2080s

Change in SI in grass, shrub & woodland, and sparsely vegetated land classes.


Summary

CHINAGRO change)

SUMMARY

  • Methodology for full livestock feed accounting at provincial / regional / national level (all major feed sources, all animal types);

  • Full accounting provides valuable consistency check;

  • Method is flexible to incorporate technical information from livestock experts as well as survey / census data;

  • Provides sound basis for estimating current and future feed availability and use;

  • Explicitly accounts for livestock structure changes and shifts in livestock management;

  • Provides a basis for assessing spatial livestock issues (e.g., fixed vs mobile feed resources).


THANK YOU! change)

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC


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