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Anna Borowczak,

Anna Borowczak, . Absorption of the cohesion policy funds vs. emergence of growth and stagnation areas in Poland 32 nd International Geographical Congress Cologne, 26-30 August 2012. Anna Borowczak, Paweł Churski, Robert Perdał.

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Anna Borowczak,

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  1. Anna Borowczak, Absorption of the cohesion policy funds vs. emergence of growth and stagnation areas in Poland32nd International Geographical CongressCologne, 26-30 August 2012 • Anna Borowczak, Paweł Churski, Robert Perdał FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHICAL AND GEOLOGICAL SCIENCESInstitute of Socio-Economic Geography andSpatial Management

  2. INTRODUCTION 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  3. Introduction Theaimof the analysisis to determine the quantitativeinterdependencebetween the interventionsfunded in the farmework of the EU cohesion policy and the process of shaping the areas of economic growth and stagnation in Poland. The resultspresentedhereafterwereobtainedwithinfirststage of the researchproject SOCIO-ECONOMC DEVELOPMENT AND THE PATTERN OF GROWTH AND STAGNATION AREAS co-financed by the National Science Centre in Poland (N N306 791940). 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  4. Introduction The researchprocedureiscomposed of followingsteps: (1) first we identifyareas of economic growth and stagnation in the set of localunits (NUTS-4/LAU-1) applyingclusteranalysis on Z-score (2000-2010) (2)then we identify the actualspatialdistribution of fundsalloacted to localunits in Poland within the period of eligibility i.e. years 2004-2010 (3)finally we analize the relationshipbetween the subregional differentiation of public aid and spatialdistribution of growth and stagnationareas in Poland applyingimpactanalysisbased on simpleregressionmodels 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  5. IN SEARCH OF EFFECTIVE COHESION POLICY 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  6. In search of effectivecohesionpolicy EuropeanCohesion Policy istargetedatcreatingconditions for sustainable development throughreachingsocial, economic and territorial (spatial) cohesioninEuropean regions. Cohesionis a broad termbut in generalreflectspursuestowardreaching the long-term spatialbalance, in practiceismeasured with convergence of development paths. Up-to date the effortsaimedatcohesionwere not toosatisfying, especiallyat regional and locallevels. Support was directed to lagging regions and compensatedtheir investment potential. Despite the effortsspatialdistribution of wealthisstilluneven in European space. New developmentsaresubordinate to enhancing the global competetivenessof Europe thorughsupporting growth centres and theirpossiblespill-overeffects. 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  7. In search of effectivecohesionpolicy 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  8. STEP 1 AREAS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STAGNATION IN POLAND 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  9. Areas of economic growth and stagnationin Poland Choice of adequatestatisticalcharacteristics: (1) we collectedlarge regional data base of allavailablecharacteristicsdescribing the development level/process (2000-2010) (2) we reduced the set of indicatorsusing: (a) variablilityco-efficient (b) autocorrelation (c) qualitative (expert) judgement IntraregionaldimensionNUTS 4– poviats (379 units) 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  10. Areas of economic growth and stagnationin Poland Development level GENERAL APPROACH Cluster Analyis on Z-score (56 characteristics) CLUSTER I GROWTH AREAS CLUSTER II TRANSITION AREAS CLUSTER III STAGNATION AREAS 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  11. Areas of economic growth and stagnationin Poland Development level POPULATION AND SETTLEMENT CLUSTER I GROWTH AREAS CLUSTER II TRANSITION AREAS CLUSTER III STAGNATION AREAS CHARACTERISTICS (1) Dynamics of population (2) Populationdensity; (3) Females per 100 males (4) Net migration (5) Actualpopulationincrease (6) Deaths per 1000 per. (7) Non-working age population per 100 persons of working age (8) Workingpopulation in % (9) level of urbanization 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  12. Areas of economic growth and stagnationin Poland Development levelLABOUR MARKET AND ECONOMY STRUCTURE CLUSTER I GROWTH AREAS CLUSTER II TRANSITION AREAS CLUSTER III STAGNATION AREAS CHARACTERISTICS (1) unemployedpersons% (2) Unemployedfemales % (3) unemployedunder 34 (4) unemployed 45+ (5) Unemployed by tertiary education (6) Unemployed by basiceducation (7) Unemployed persons out of work up to 6 months , between 12 and 24 months and above 24 months 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  13. Areas of economic growth and stagnationin Poland Development levelTECHNICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND ACCESSIBILITY CLUSTER I GROWTH AREAS CLUSTER II TRANSITION AREAS CLUSTER III STAGNATION AREAS CHARACTERISTICS (1) density of public roads (2) % of improved hard surface roads (3) density of the gas network (4) density of sanitary sewer network (5) % of population using the gas network (6) ...watersupplynetwork (7) ...sewage system (8) ... gas system (9) air and waterpollution (10) no person per housing, per room 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  14. Areas of economic growth and stagnationin Poland Development levelFINANCIAL SITUATION AND THE LEVEL OF AFFLUENCE CLUSTER I GROWTH AREAS CLUSTER II TRANSITION AREAS CLUSTER III STAGNATION AREAS CHARACTERISTICS (1) Share of the own revenues in general incomes of public entities (2) Incomes from PIT per person (3) Incomes from CITper person (4) Public transfers (5) Public investment expendituresand itsdynamics (6) Indicators of financial standing in privatesector, eg. fixedassetsand investments per company, profitability ratio, liquidityindex, costlevel ratio etc. (7) Averagemonthlygrosssalary (8) Public transfers to households 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  15. Areas of economic growth and stagnationin Poland Development levelINNOVATIVE ECONOMY AND BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT CLUSTER I GROWTH AREAS CLUSTER II TRANSITION AREAS CLUSTER III STAGNATION AREAS CHARACTERISTICS (1) Number of enterprises providing bussiness services (J section of NACE) (2) Number of enterprises providing bussiness services (K secton of NACE) (3) Employed in bussiness services 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  16. STEP 2 ACTUAL DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC INVESTMENTS IN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN POLAND 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  17. Actualdistribution of public investments… Estimatedabsorption of EU funds and projectnumber in allprogrames co-financedwithin 2004-2006, 2007-2013-mid term analysis (projectsended by 31 December 2010) 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  18. Actualdistribution of public investments… The structuralfundsallocated in Poland within 2004-2010 weredividedinto five aspects of regional development: and attributed to 379 NUTS 4 units, according to the actualprojectlocation . Projects in the field of Technical Assistance, Agriculture and Aquaculturewere not considered. 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  19. Actualdistribution of public investments… Estimatedvalue (in zł) and projectnumber in years 2004-2010 Estimatedprojestvalue in years 2004-2010 (in Mio zł) Estimatedprojectnumber in years 2004-2010 (in pieces) 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  20. Actualdistribution of public investments… Absorption of funds GENERAL APPROACH acummulatedvalue in 2010 Estimatedvalue(in Mio zł) Estimatedvalueper capita(in zł) 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  21. Actualdistribution of public investments… Absorption of funds POPULATION AND SETTLEMENT acummulatedvalue in 2010 Estimatedvalue(in Mio zł) Estimatedvalueper capita(in zł) 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  22. Actualdistribution of public investments… Absorption of funds LABOUR MARKET AND ECONOMY STRUCTURE acummulated valuein 2010 Estimatedvalue(in Mio zł) Estimatedvalueper capita(in zł) 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  23. Actualdistribution of public investments… Absorption of funds TECHNICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND SPATIAL ACCESSIBILITY acummulated valuein 2010 Estimatedvalue(in Mio zł) Estimatedvalueper capita(in zł) 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  24. Actualdistribution of public investments… Absorption of funds FNANCIAL STUATION AND THE LEVEL OF AFFLUENCE acummulatedvalue in 2010 Estimatedvalue(in Mio zł) Estimatedvalueper capita(in zł) 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  25. Actualdistribution of public investments… Absorption of funds INNOVATIVE ECONOMY AND BUSINESS ENVIRONMENTacummulated value in 2010 Estimatedvalue(in Mio zł) Estimatedvalueper capita(in zł) 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  26. STEP 3 ABSORPTION OF EU FUNDS vs. EMERGENCE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STAGNATION AREAS IN POLAND 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  27. Absorption of EU fundsvs. emergence of economic growth and stagnationareas Regressionanalysis: y = ax + b y – level of development (i.e. Z-score in 2010) xi –acummulatedvalue of EU funds per person Estimatedfor general approach and 5 partial aspects of regional development with respect to: allspatialunits on NUTS 4 level allspatialunitsclassifyied as growthareas allspatialunitsclassifyiedas transitionareas all spatial units classifyied as stagnationareas Total number of 24 equations of simpleregression 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  28. Absorption of EU fundsvs. emergence of economic growth and stagnationareas 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  29. CONCLUSIONS 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  30. Conclusions • 1. Growth areasin Poland aremetropolitanareas and strong industrial centres. Spill-overeffectsareobservableincase of metropolitanareas. Development procesesin industrial centresarefocused on the spot. • 2. Increasingspatialrange of most stagnationareasis not related to diminishing development level, but comes as consequence of smaller development dynamicsincomparison to dynamic of metropolitanareas. • 3. Public interventionsfinancedfromthecohesionpolicyin Poland aretargetedattheinfrastructuralprojectsinscope of public infrastructure and privateinevestmentsinfixedassests. • 4. Activeness of unitslocated on stagnationareasinacquiringfundsvariesvery much. • 5. Impact of EU funds on development levelisrelevant but not determining. 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  31. Conclusions • 6. Reasons for lowdetermination of regressionmodelsmay be following: • development effectsmay be postponed • otherfactorsimpacting development level, e.g. economiccrisis • Interventionsare not targetedproperly (not relevant) 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  32. THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION! • Anna Borowczak – aborowcz@amu.edu.pl Paweł Churski – chur@amu.edu.pl Robert Perdał – r.perdal@amu.edu.pl FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHICAL AND GEOLOGICAL SCIENCESInstitute of Socio-Economic Geography andSpatial Management

  33. Areas of economic growth and stagnationin Poland Pearson’sco-efficient –level of socio-economic development 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  34. Actualdistribution of public investments… Pearson’sco-efficient – value of EU fundsper capita 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

  35. Absorption of EU fundsvs. emergence of economic growth and stagnationareas Distribution of residualsin general approach (Example) 32ND INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL CONGRESSCologne, 26-30 August 2012

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