Transportation as Cause and Effect

1. Climate Change as Seen from the Transportation Sector: Public Policy, Infrastructure Planning, Design Challenges and System Adaptation Michael D. Meyer, Ph.D., P.E.F.R. Dickerson Professor of Transportation SystemsDirector, Georgia Transportation InstituteGeorgia Institute of Technology

2. Transportation as Cause and Effect

3. CO2 emissions = PT EC

4. Transportation is ~28% of U.S. GHG Emissions– and Rising

6. Highway Vehicles (Passenger Cars and Trucks) Account for 79% of Transportation CO2 Emissions (2006)

8. State Climate Plans –Transportation Elements Are All Over the Map

9. Three scenariosthat achieve 60 – 80% reduction in LDV GHG emissions below 2005 by 2050

10. Baseline Scenario (+11% LDV GHG) Source: NCHRP, STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING THE IMPACTS OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE:  A SYNTHESIS OF POLICY RESEARCH AND STATE AND LOCAL MITIGATION STRATEGIES, March 2009

11. Scenario 1: Zero VMT Growth; + 50 mpgge for LDV Fleet;+ 5% Operational Efficiency; (-60% LDV GHG) Source: NCHRP, STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING THE IMPACTS OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE:  A SYNTHESIS OF POLICY RESEARCH AND STATE AND LOCAL MITIGATION STRATEGIES, March 2009

12. Scenario 2: 1% Annual VMT Growth; + 75 mpgge LDV Fleet; + 10% Operational Efficiency (-63% LDV GHG) Source: NCHRP, STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING THE IMPACTS OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE:  A SYNTHESIS OF POLICY RESEARCH AND STATE AND LOCAL MITIGATION STRATEGIES, March 2009

13. Scenario 3: 1% Annual VMT Growth; + 100 mpgge LDV Fleet; + 10% Operational Efficiency (-74% LDV GHG) Source: NCHRP, STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING THE IMPACTS OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE:  A SYNTHESIS OF POLICY RESEARCH AND STATE AND LOCAL MITIGATION STRATEGIES, March 2009

14. Five GHG Reduction “Legs” • Examples: • Higher CAFÉ standards • CA’s low carbon fuel std • Higher density/mixed use • Signalization, ITS, eco-driving • Materials, maintenance practices Transportation GHG reduction has 5 legs: • Vehicle efficiency • Low-carbon fuels • VMT (including land use) • Vehicle/system operations • Construction, maintenance, and agency operations

15. Vehicle/Fuel Improvements Will be the Dominant Source of GHG Reductions for LDVs • 50% cut in GHG/mile is feasible from conventional technologies and biofuels by 2020-2030 • Compare these GHG rates in U.S. and Europe: 380 grams/mile 2009 in the U.S. 250 grams/mile 2016 under new Obama standard 256 grams/mile 2007 actual in the E.U. 209 grams/mile 2012 under E.U. regulation 153 grams/mile 2020 under E.U. regulation • New technologies and fuels hold promise of much deeper reductions

16. Policy Mechanisms

17. Transportation as Cause and Effect

19. Extreme events Long-term environmental changes

24. What does the literature say?

25. Bridges and culverts (increased mean annual rainfall, increased intensity of rainfall events, sea level rise), Causeways and coastal roads (sea level rise and increased frequency and intensity of storm surges), Pavement surfaces (increased mean annual temperature), Surface drainage (increased intensity of rainfall events), and Hillside slope stability (increased mean annual rainfall and increased intensity of rainfall events). Seattle(Soo Hoo 2005)

26. Boston and New York City (Tufts University 2004; Suarez et al 2005) Particular concern about flooding (especially transit tunnels)

27. By 2100, temperatures will be approaching • those of current design standards…design • changes should be accommodated now (for • long life infrastructure such as bridges) to • ensure that facilities will be able to • accommodate higher temperatures in the • future. • The impact of sea level rise is significant for • some, but not all, parts of the region. Gulf Coast (Cambridge Systematics, 2006)

28. Highways in high risk areas should be • redesigned to accommodate changes as • part of a comprehensive urban redesign • strategy. • The most severe and pervasive impacts to • highways will be the increase in the number • of intense storms….the impacts from storm • waves can be so severe that efforts to • identify and protect the bridges should be a • priority.

29. A study on streambed scour at bridge crossings in Alaska shows that the major effect of climate change is mainly on rivers in glacial systems. “The peak flows are not as high as from intense rainfall events, but the duration of the high flows is longer. This translates to increased sediment transport capability and scour at bridge crossings.” Permafrost (Conaway 2006)

30. A Typical Infrastructure Segment

31. Critical Components of Infrastructure Design • Subsurface conditions • Materials specifications • Cross sections/standard dimensions • Drainage and erosion • Structures • Location engineering

32. New Orleans Limited evacuation potential City below sea level Transportation in the New Orleans region is vulnerable Deteriorating coastal defenses Subsidence (9 mm/yr) Locally heavy rainfall (forced drainage uphill, downpours likely to increase) Global Sea-level Rise (1-2 mm now…. expected to accelerate 2-5 fold)

33. Construction activities Design highways, bridges, & roads to withstand flooding and not aggravate flooding Establish set backs for coastal transportation infrastructure to accommodate sea-level rise Design/modify port facilities to accommodate higher wave energy and storm surge

42. Options for the treatment of risks: • Future-proofing of designs • Retro-fit solutions • Developing contingency plans • Updating operating procedures • Monitoring • Research

43. “This prioritisation provides a basis for establishing a forward programme of work to analyse options and develop adaptation action plans. Key areas for attention include internal business management processes, to ensure sufficient resources are allocated to adaptation activities, network resilience, investment appraisal, and various specific aspects of the design and maintenance of road pavement, structures and drainage.”

44. Climate Adaptation Planning Identify predominant climate change trends and factors for region Identify critical assets in the network Identify impact of these changes on local environmental conditions Conduct risk appraisal of vulnerabilities and environmental changes Identify vulnerabilities of highway system to these changing conditions Identify trigger levels Assess feasibility and cost effectiveness of adaptation strategies Network Functions Asset A Asset B Asset C Asset X Change design standards Change operating strategies Change maintenance practices Change construction practices Etc. Identify affected highway agency functions

45. One of the most effective strategies for reducing the engineering risk associated with climate change is to avoid the potential of risk to begin with.

46. Other-than-Design Options?

47. Land use policies Zoning codes Comprehensive plans

48. Climate change could have dramatic impacts on the transportation sector • Ability of current facilities and services to function • Design and location of new transportation facilities and services • Construction techniques • Logistics

49. Most Certainly It Will Produce a Multitude of Policies, Regulations and Processes that Directly Affect Infrastructure Providers