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Blink

Blink. Chapter 5: Kenna’s Dilemma. Presented by: Melanie Swan, Futurist MS Futures Group 650-681-9482 m@melanieswan.com http://www.melanieswan.com. NIH BCIG March 23, 2006. Licensing: Creative Commons 3.0. First…test your blink skills. Is this song going to be a hit? Scale of 1-4

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Blink

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  1. Blink Chapter 5: Kenna’s Dilemma Presented by: Melanie Swan, Futurist MS Futures Group 650-681-9482 m@melanieswan.com http://www.melanieswan.com NIH BCIG March 23, 2006 Licensing: Creative Commons 3.0

  2. First…test your blink skills Is this song going to be a hit? Scale of 1-4 1 is “I dislike the song”

  3. Opposite blink reactions • Who’s right? Who’s wrong? The Experts Market Research Craig Kallman, Co-President Atlantic Records Fred Durst, Lead Singer Limpbizkit Paul McGuinness, Manager U2 Pick the Hits – Wash DC Music Research – CA 1.3, 0.8 Movie, political poling

  4. The Pepsi Challenge • Initially, 57% preferred Pepsi in the sip test • Then New Coke started to win • But the market rejected New Coke’s launch • …Context is important • Sip test is not the relevant context; Coke wins in the home test

  5. Louis Cheskin • The product is the product + the package • Margarine • Brandy • 7-Up • Many unconscious factors go into how our impressions are formed

  6. The Aeron chair, you vote… Comfort Scale of 1-10 (10 is perfect) Aesthetics Scale of 1-10

  7. Aeron response • Initial scores - Comfort: 8, Aesthetic: 2,3 • Later scores – Comfort: 8, Aesthetic: 8 • Message: it is hard for us to explain our feelings about unfamiliar things • Potential problem with market research is that it is too blunt to distinguish between bad and different/new • All in the Family, Mary Tyler Moore

  8. When to blink • Blink judgments are accurate and helpful in the right context, otherwise can be misleading • Record industry experts with Kenna’s music • Gottman’s couples diagnosis • Snippet of surgeon’s conversation • Out of context • Market research firms with Kenna’s music • Coke in the sip test

  9. Conclusion: Expertise and context signal accuracy of blink judgments • First impressions of experts can be trusted • Only experts can reliably account for their reactions • Our unconscious reactions come out of a locked room, with experience, we can become experts at using our behavior and training to interpret and decode first impressions • Blink impressions are not wrong, only shallow (hard to explain, easy to misinterpret) when they are outside our areas of expertise

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