The 3
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 17

The 3 rd Younger Members Convention PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 116 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

The 3 rd Younger Members Convention. 29-30 November 2004, The Chesford Grange Hotel, Kenilworth. Can Actuaries Save the World?. Keith Lawrence Nautilus Consultants www.nautilus-consultants.co.uk. Laurie campbell photography. The solution?. “University offers 'Swampy' degrees

Download Presentation

The 3 rd Younger Members Convention

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


The 3 rd younger members convention

The 3rd Younger Members Convention

29-30 November 2004, The Chesford Grange Hotel, Kenilworth

Can Actuaries Save the World?

Keith Lawrence

Nautilus Consultants

www.nautilus-consultants.co.uk


The 3 rd younger members convention

Laurie campbell photography


The solution

The solution?

“University offers 'Swampy' degrees

A Scottish university is offering courses in how to be an eco-warrior.

Students will learn the arts of environmental activism such as chaining themselves to trees, digging tunnels and launching campaigns.”

www.ananova.com


What s it all got to do with actuaries

What’s it all got to do with actuaries?

… many environmental issues occur over the long-term, and are highly uncertain in nature

1. Impacts on insurance companies & pension funds

… e.g. climate change affects general insurance claims

2. Actuarial skills and tools are relevant


1 impacts on life insurance co s pension funds

1. Impacts on life insurance co.s & pension funds

  • CSR and brand

  • Ethical investment trend

    • Do greener companies perform better?

  • Climate change

  • Environmental liability insurance

  • The image of the profession


Case study climate change

Case study: Climate Change

  • Average global temperature is already rising

    • 20th century was probably the warmest in the last 1,000 years

  • Rainfall patterns are changing

  • Sea levels are rising

  • Glaciers are retreating

  • Arctic sea-ice is thinning

  • Extreme weather is more common in some areas


Climate change it s not all bad news

Climate Change: It’s not all bad news

  • Varies by sector

    • e.g. warmer summers means more tourists???

  • Some studies indicate overall economic benefit for USA

  • Opportunities for those who adapt first

    • Includes financial services sector

    • The Carbon Trust

  • Uncertain

  • Possibility of extreme climate change?


2 actuarial skills and tools are relevant

2. Actuarial skills and tools are relevant

My experience of moving from conventional actuarial work into the environmental field

Long-term issues

Uncertainty

a) Risk management

b) Option value

c) Portfolio management


A risk analysis management for projects ramp

a) Risk analysis & management for projects (RAMP)

identify risks

Flood defences?

Climate change?

analyse the likely consequences

identify mitigation strategies

control residual risks


B option value

Giant redwood forest

Timber

Tourism

b) Option Value

The value of having an option open to you

  • Cutting it down isirreversible … you lose the tourism option

  • Uncertaintyover future value of timber / tourism

  • Can modify the Black-Scholes model


B portfolio management

b) Portfolio Management

How to manage a portfolio of investments over time, to meet an objective.

Objective: Sustainable Development:

“Economic and social development that meets the needs of the current generation without undermining the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”The Brundtland Commission, 1987

Can think of 3 types of capital to manage:

  • Produced (conventional economic goods e.g. roads & buildings)

  • Natural (landscapes, ecosystems, habitats & species)

  • Human (a population who are healthy, educated, happy, …)


What can you do

What can YOU do?

  • Recycling

  • Efficient energy use

  • Be a thoughtful consumer

  • Lobby for better environmental practices in the workplace

  • IoA’s Environmental Research Group(Chairman Nick Silver … see IoA website)

  • Think:

    • How do environmental issues affect my industry?

    • Can we pre-empt these - first mover advantage?

    • Have brilliant ideas that will save the world!


Conclusions

The world faces serious environmental issues: climate change, pollution, unsustainable use of natural resources ...

  • These issues impact on your industry:

    • Climate change general insurance claims

    • Environmental liability insurance

    • Ethical investment

    • Image

Conclusions

  • Actuarial skills and tools could be valuable:

    • Long-term issues, uncertainty


Conclusion can actuaries save the world

CAN take the lead in adapting to change

… and in assessing the impacts on your industry

CAN apply actuarial skills and tools to some environmental issues

Conclusion: Can actuaries save the world?

NO


Thank you

Thank you

  • Keith Lawrence

  • Nautilus Consultants

  • www.nautilus-consultants.co.uk


  • Login