Polar rules and amsa a glimpse into the future of arctic shipping
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Polar Rules and AMSA : A Glimpse into the Future of Arctic Shipping. V.M. Santos-Pedro, P.Eng. Transport Canada Marine Safety. Arctic Shipping. Event Driven Search for the NWP Mineral/ Energy Exploration Tourism & Re-supply Activity Sporadic (with lulls). Development of the Polar Rules.

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Polar Rules and AMSA : A Glimpse into the Future of Arctic Shipping

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Polar rules and amsa a glimpse into the future of arctic shipping

Polar Rules and AMSA:A Glimpse into the Future of Arctic Shipping

V.M. Santos-Pedro, P.Eng.

Transport Canada

Marine Safety


Arctic shipping

Arctic Shipping

  • Event Driven

    • Search for the NWP

    • Mineral/ Energy Exploration

    • Tourism & Re-supply Activity

  • Sporadic (with lulls)


Development of the polar rules

Development of the Polar Rules

  • IMO Arctic Shipping Guidelines

    - Pollution Prevention

    - Integrated Approach

    - Class Descriptions

    - Nominal Equivalency

    Use IACS Requirements


Chronology of polar rules

Chronology of Polar Rules

-1991 Germany proposes use of Class Rules for polar waters

  • 1992 Russia adds proposal for zero discharge in Arctic waters

  • 1993 Finland hosts meeting of experts leading to formation of first IMO Outside Working Group (OWG)

  • 1994 Calgary hosts first official meeting of OWG (ICETECH94)

  • 1998 Canada submits draft Polar Code to IMO and leads Correspondence Group

  • 2000 US proposes reduced scope of guidelines for ships operating in Arctic ice-covered waters

  • 2002 Guidelines approved in February and published in December

  • 2004 IACS to approve Unified Requirements

  • 2005 Antarctic Treaty countries propose amendment of Guidelines to include Antarctic waters

  • 2006 IACS Council approves Polar Rules Unified Requirements

  • 2008 IACS Implements Polar Rules and IMO the Polar Guidelines (?)


Polar ship rules are

Polar Ship Rules are….

  • Unprecedented in scope and development

  • Comprehensive

  • Integrated

“The harmonization of standards invites a holistic and integrated approach to safety and success.”


Necessary

Necessary!

Harmonized Polar Rules will prepare the way for future Arctic shipping standards and practices.

So…..

What will Arctic Shipping look like in the future?


Arctic shipping in the future

Arctic Shipping in the Future?


The arctic council

The Arctic Council

Reykjavik Declaration, 4th Ministerial (Nov 2004)

“ Request PAME to conduct a comprehensive Arctic marine shipping assessment as outlined in the AMSP under the guidance of Canada, Finland, and the United States as lead countries and in collaboration with the EPPR working group and other working groups of the Arctic Council and Permanent Participants as relevant.”


Amsa is

AMSA is:

  • - A natural follow to the ACIA and the AMSP

  • Circumpolar, yet, regional (LME) and local focus

  • Led by Canada, Finland, and the US (with

  • participation from all Arctic states)

  • Inclusive: Member States, Permanent Participants, Working Groups of the Arctic Council; Council Observers; Shipping Industry; International Maritime Organization; Ship Classification Societies; Research Organizations; Non-Arctic Stakeholders (examples: Japan, Germany, UK) and Others

  • The Arctic Council’s response to changing marine

  • access


Amsa will look at

AMSA will look at:

Shipping activity levels today (2004) and in

the future (2020 and 2050)

As well as,

The environmental, social, and economic impacts of shipping


Amsa efforts thus far

AMSA Efforts Thus Far…

  • Organization

    and Planning

  • Roundtable

    Established


C communications

C) Communications

http://www.pame.is


D project plan development

D) Project Plan Development

AMSA Work Packages

WP 1–Project Planning & Management

WP 2 – Determination of Current Level of Arctic Marine Activity (Two tiers:

Database collection and traditional marine use ~ Member States)

WP 3 – Projected levels of Arctic Marine Activity in 2020 & 2050 (Plausible

Future Scenarios ~ ACIA Sea Ice Projections and Regional Economics)

WP 4 – Environmental Impact of Today’s Arctic Marine Activity

WP 5 – Environmental Impact of Arctic Marine Activity in 2020 & 2050

WP 6 – Risk Analyses

WP 7 – Social and Economic Impacts

WP 8 – Analysis & Recommendations


E outreach

http://www.tc.gc.ca/amsa

E) Outreach

Town Hall Meetings

“Times are changing and so too is our use of the marine environment …but…we adapt…we are a people that know how to survive…our past can attest to that!

“The way of life as our forefathers knew it is disappearing like the ice…it is our children who will be affected by these ‘water visitors’ the most.”

Maritime Venues


F data required

F) Data Required?

AMSA Dataset:

1) Marine Activity Database for 2004 (Type, Routes, Cargo)

2) Traditional (Indigenous) Marine / Ice Activity Database

3) Accident Database (Type, Location, Severity)

4) Ice Conditions Database (2004)

Dataset Applications:

  • Risk Assessments

  • Environmental Impact Assessments

  • Indigenous Use Impacts

  • Social and Economic Impact Assessments


What can we learn from the data so far

What Can we Learn from the Data so Far?


Distribution within a nation s fleet

Distribution Within a Nation’s Fleet


Evaluate traffic in the arctic as a whole

Evaluate Traffic in the Arctic as a Whole


Traffic density

Traffic Density


Real amsa data in gis overlay

Real AMSA Data in GIS Overlay

Ice concentration contours plotted with active Arctic ports can help estimate seasonal economic trends


Polar rules and amsa a glimpse into the future of arctic shipping

  • Ecological Criteria Used to Determine Extent of LME’s

  • Hydrography

  • Bathymetry

  • Productivity

  • Trophodynamics


G report outlined formed

G) Report Outlined Formed

Chapter 1: Introduction

Chapter 2: Geography and History of Arctic Marine Use

Chapter 3: Current (2004) Levels of Arctic Marine Use

Chapter 4: Use of the Arctic Ocean by Indigenous People

Chapter 5: Scenarios of Future Arctic Ocean Marine Activity for 2020 and 2050

Chapter 6: Environmental Impacts at Current and Future Marine Activity

(information from Work Packages 4, 5 and 6)

Chapter 7: Social and Economic Impacts at Current and Future Levels

(information from Work Packages 6 and 7)

Chapter 8: Current Arctic Infrastructure and Anticipated Needs

Chapter 9: Findings of the Assessment (information from Work Package 8)


Next steps

Next Steps?

  • IACS Polar Rules by March 2008

  • IMO Polar Guidelines by Summer 2008 (?)

  • Canada intends to adopt IACS Polar Rules

  • AMSA Town Hall Meetings

  • Collection/Analysis of Shipping Data

  • Scenario Building

  • Form Expert Groups


Conclusion

Conclusion

  • Sea ice reductions = Several plausible futures

    - Risks, yet, opportunities

    - AMSA

    - Polar Rules


Thank you

Thank You

Thank You!


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