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D. Baker (CU/LASP) R. Weigel (CU/LASP) D. Vassiliadis (NASA/GSFC) A. Klimas (NASA/GSFC) R. McPherron (UCLA). G. Siscoe (BU) N. Crooker (BU) H. Spence (BU) H. Singer (SEC/NOAA) T. Onsager (SEC/NOAA) N. Arge (SEC/NOAA). Knowledge Transfer and Empirical Modeling Team.

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D. Baker (CU/LASP)

R. Weigel (CU/LASP)

D. Vassiliadis (NASA/GSFC)

A. Klimas (NASA/GSFC)

R. McPherron (UCLA)

G. Siscoe (BU)

N. Crooker (BU)

H. Spence (BU)

H. Singer (SEC/NOAA)

T. Onsager (SEC/NOAA)

N. Arge (SEC/NOAA)

Knowledge Transfer and Empirical Modeling Team

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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National Space Weather Program Components

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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OUR GOAL:Transform Information into Wisdom

Information

Knowledge

Wisdom

“Before you become too entranced with gorgeous gadgets and mesmerizing video displays,let me remind you that information is not knowledge, knowledge is not wisdom, and wisdom is not foresight. Each grows out of the other, and we need them all. "Arthur C. Clark

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Knowledge Transfer

Science and Technology Center Goals

  • Establish meaningful links and benefits to society

  • Promote links to federal agencies, National Labs, industry, etc.

  • Make an impact on nation’s scientific and/or technological base

  • Add value of national and international impact

  • Innovate in knowledge transfer

Modeling the Solar-Terrestrial System

Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling

CU/LASP Partnership with NOAA/SEC

  • SEC is the nation’s official source of space weather alerts and warnings

  • Serves the nation to reduce adverse effects of space weather disturbances on human activities

Using Models to Support Customers

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Knowledge Transfer Challenges

  • Transition Models to Forecasting Tools

  • Disseminate Results to Space Physics Community

  • Exchange Information with Agency Programs

  • Share Knowledge with CISM Industrial Partners

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Knowledge Transfer Challenges

  • Transition Models to Forecasting Tools

  • Disseminate Results to Space Physics Community

  • Exchange Information with Agency Programs

  • Share Knowledge with CISM Industrial Partners

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Dartmouth College

University of California

Boston University

NCSA

University of Colorado NCAR/HAO NOAA/SEC

Stanford University

NOAA/SEC

SW Operations

R&D Systems

Alabama A&M University

SAIC

University of Texas, El Paso

Rice University

Knowledge Transfer in CISM

CISM

CU/LASP

CISM Liaison for

Model Evaluation and

Test Product Development

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Studying the Solar-Terrestrial Chain

SOHO

SNOE

RHESSI

ACE

CLUSTER

Solar

Source

POLAR

Solar Wind

Drivers

SAMPEX

Seed

Population

TIMED

Observational Situation—

Continuous views of sun in UV, x-rays, visible wavelengths (SOHO, NOAA/SXI, RHESSI, etc.)

Precipitation

And Loss

Atmospheric &

Ionospheric

Coupling

Continuous data from ACE

Excellent data on plasma sheet sources of seed population (CLUSTER, GEOTAIL, POLAR, etc.)

Excellent data from SAMPEX, NOAA/POES, POLAR/PIXIE

Continuous coverage with SNOE and TIMED

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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ACE

Measurements

MeV Electron

Flux

r

V

B

L1-Earth

Propagation

External Field

Solar Boundary

Measurements

SW

Propagation

Surface

dB/dt

Ap

Status of Empirical Modeling Work

  • Empirical Model Suite contains a working Sun-to-Earth chain

  • Compiled a set of community-developed empirical models

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts

Earth

Wang-Sheely Model modified by Arge

Sun

Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms

Solar Wind Velocity

Baker Model modified by Smithtro running at SEC

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts

Earth

Wang-Sheely Model modified by Arge

Sun

Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms

Solar Wind Velocity

CISM Energetic Electron Models,

dB/dt Model,

and Ap model

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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WSA Driving Electron Flux Models

ACE

Measurements

MeV Electron

Flux

r

V

B

L1-Earth

Propagation

External Field

Solar Boundary

Measurements

SW

Propagation

Surface

dB/dt

Ap

FIR model of Vassiliadis et al. 2002 and

Threshold Model of Weigel et al. 2003

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts

Earth

Wang-Sheely Model modified by Arge

Sun

Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms

Solar Wind Velocity

CISM Surface dB/dt Models

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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ACE Data Driving dB/dt Model

ACE

Measurements

MeV Electron

Flux

r

V

B

L1-Earth

Propagation

Solar Boundary

Measurements

SW

Propagation

External Field

Surface

dB/dt

Ap

Surface dB/dt Model of Weigel et al., 2002

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Knowledge Transfer Challenges

  • Transition Models to Forecasting Tools

  • Disseminate Results to Space Physics Community

  • Exchange Information with Agency Programs

  • Share Knowledge with CISM Industrial Partners

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Sharing Knowledge with Space Physics Community

  • Common framework allows for rapid addition of new models and ensemble prediction

  • Models are presented to research community on a web site with documentation and links to other resources

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Submitting a Model

ACE

Measurements

MeV Electron

Flux

r

V

B

Ballistic

Propagation

External Field

Solar Boundary

Measurements

SW

Propagation

Surface

dB/dt

Ap

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Submitting a Model

ACE

Measurements

MeV Electron

Flux

Weimer

Propagation

r

V

B

External Field

Solar Boundary

Measurements

SW

Propagation

Surface

dB/dt

Ap

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Knowledge Transfer Challenges

  • Transition Models to Forecasting Tools

  • Disseminate Results to Space Physics Community

  • Exchange Information with Agency Programs

  • Share Knowledge with CISM Industrial Partners

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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DoD Customers and Operations

Civilian Customers and Operations

DoD

SEC

Rapid Prototyping Centers

Verification

Documentation

Communication

CCMC

Model Access

Validation

Metrics

Model Flow

Space Weather Research Community

Living

With a Star

NASA

Center for Integrated

Space Weather Modeling

NSF

Core Space Science

Research

Targeted Space

Weather Research

NSF/AF/ONR

Multi-University

Research Initiatives

AF/ONR

Space Weather Model Development

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Knowledge Transfer Challenges

  • Transition Models to Forecasting Tools

  • Disseminate Results to Space Physics Community

  • Exchange Information with Agency Programs

  • Share Knowledge with CISM Industrial Partners

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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Boeing

MRC

Metatech, Inc.

Lockheed-Martin

Ball Aerospace

Lockheed-Martin

Goddard SFC

Lockheed-Martin

Aerospace Corp.

Marshall SFC

SAIC

Johnson Space Center

Knowledge Sharing with Industrial Partners

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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2002

2007

Forecasting Tools

Community Dissemination

Industrial Partners

Timeline and Milestones

--Standard Model Runs on Web

--Custom Model Runs Available

--Standard Mag/ITM/RC/RB Model Runs on Web

--Custom Solar/Solar Wind/Mag/ITM Runs Available

Coupled Mag/ITM/Ring Current/Rad Belt Model Available to Transition

Three Empirical Models Available for Transition

Coupled Global SW/Mag/ITM Available to Transition

Industrial “Space Weather Fellowships” Established

CISM Presence at Space Weather Week

Seminar Series Established

  • Implement other empirical models based on feedback from NOAA/SEC and validation results

  • Work with physics-based modelers to develop a common framework for model output, interaction, and presentation

  • Begin model validation and benchmarking

  • Develop new models based on weaknesses exposed in validation

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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CISM Vision

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP


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