Prediction of Natural Disasters. Art Lerner-Lam Associate Director Doherty Senior Research Scientist Adjunct Professor Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. Prediction of Natural Disasters. What is a “Natural Hazard”/“Natural Disaster”?
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Prediction of Natural Disasters
Doherty Senior Research Scientist
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides
hurricanes, typhoons, Nor’easters, hailstorms, blizzards, icestorms
disruption of cycles (carbon, nitrogen, hydrological)
Characteristic time scale
Simple, linear processes can maintain scale superposition. That is, the total process is just the sum of sub-processes each with its own scale.
Complex and non-linear processes possess complex scale interdependencies. The dynamics at one scale can influence the dynamics at another scale.
Scale interdependencies make prediction especially hard, since the driving forces may not be known.
“Hazard” is a process which has potential human impacts.
“Risk” is the “product” of hazard and accumulated human assets.
“Concentration of wealth” matters.
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