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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). RAINS-Asia Phase 2: An Integrated Assessment Model for Controlling SO 2 Emissions in Asia. M. Amann, H. Akimoto, G. Carmichael, J.-P. Hettelingh, Y. Ichikawa, K. Oka, J. Shindo, D. Streets. Contents. Model structure

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International institute for applied systems analysis iiasa

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

  • RAINS-Asia Phase 2:

  • An Integrated Assessment Model

  • for Controlling SO2 Emissions

  • in Asia

M. Amann, H. Akimoto, G. Carmichael, J.-P. Hettelingh,

Y. Ichikawa, K. Oka, J. Shindo, D. Streets


Contents

Contents

  • Model structure

  • Improvements

  • Illustrative results

  • Conclusions


Improvements achieved in phase 2

Improvements achieved in Phase 2

  • Updated energy projections (2030)

  • 400 LPS

  • Flexible region definition, zoom-in capabilities

  • Multi-year meteorology

  • SO2 concentrations in ambient air

  • Improved database on critical loads with 0.1*0.1 degree resolution

  • Windows-based software

  • Improved user guidance

  • Optimization feature


So 2 emissions in asia 1984 1998 source streets et al 2000

SO2 emissions in Asia 1984-1998 Source: Streets et al., 2000


A revised energy projection for china source eri beijing

A revised energy projection for ChinaSource: ERI, Beijing

  • Changes 1995-2020:

  • Population +25 %

  • GDP+420 %

  • Total energy demand +70 %

    Coal +50 %

    Gas +300 %

    Renewables +30 %


So 2 concentrations annual mean g m 3 who limit 50 g m 3

SO2 concentrationsannual mean [g/m3], WHO limit = 50 g/m3

2020 with

current legislation

1995


Sulfur deposition

Sulfur deposition

2020 with

current legislation

1995


Vegetation map of asia source cce rivm

Vegetation map of AsiaSource: CCE, RIVM


Unprotected ecosystems with sulfur deposition above sustainable levels critical loads

Unprotected ecosystems with sulfur deposition above sustainable levels (critical loads)

2020 with

current legislation

1995


Optimization in rains

Optimization in RAINS

Energy/agriculture

projections

Emission control

options

OPTIMIZATION

Emissions

Costs

Atmospheric dispersion

Environmental

targets

Environmental impacts


Cost savings through targeted optimized emission controls

Cost-savings through targeted (optimized) emission controls


Cost savings through targeted optimized emission controls1

Cost-savings through targeted (optimized) emission controls


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • RAINS-Asia 2 now available on CD-ROM

  • SO2 emissions projections lower than 5 years agodue to slower economic growth and new legislation on emission controls

  • But acidification problem in Asia will not be fully resolved

  • Optimization tool can assist in finding cost-effective solutions

  • Extension to multi-pollutant (PM, NOx, O3, GHG?) approach seems possible and relevant


Rains asia 2

RAINS Asia 2

  • Software on CD-ROM available

    • Contact Asian Development Bank

    • or IIASA (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains)

  • Training sessions planned

  • Zooming-in for national purposes possible, supported by IIASA


On the internet

On the Internet

  • Slides of this presentation

  • in Powerpoint format

  • are available at

  • http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains


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