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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). RAINS-Asia Phase 2: An Integrated Assessment Model for Controlling SO 2 Emissions in Asia. M. Amann, H. Akimoto, G. Carmichael, J.-P. Hettelingh, Y. Ichikawa, K. Oka, J. Shindo, D. Streets. Contents. Model structure

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

  • RAINS-Asia Phase 2:

  • An Integrated Assessment Model

  • for Controlling SO2 Emissions

  • in Asia

M. Amann, H. Akimoto, G. Carmichael, J.-P. Hettelingh,

Y. Ichikawa, K. Oka, J. Shindo, D. Streets


Contents

  • Model structure

  • Improvements

  • Illustrative results

  • Conclusions


Improvements achieved in Phase 2

  • Updated energy projections (2030)

  • 400 LPS

  • Flexible region definition, zoom-in capabilities

  • Multi-year meteorology

  • SO2 concentrations in ambient air

  • Improved database on critical loads with 0.1*0.1 degree resolution

  • Windows-based software

  • Improved user guidance

  • Optimization feature


SO2 emissions in Asia 1984-1998 Source: Streets et al., 2000


A revised energy projection for ChinaSource: ERI, Beijing

  • Changes 1995-2020:

  • Population +25 %

  • GDP+420 %

  • Total energy demand +70 %

    Coal +50 %

    Gas +300 %

    Renewables +30 %


SO2 concentrationsannual mean [g/m3], WHO limit = 50 g/m3

2020 with

current legislation

1995


Sulfur deposition

2020 with

current legislation

1995


Vegetation map of AsiaSource: CCE, RIVM


Unprotected ecosystems with sulfur deposition above sustainable levels (critical loads)

2020 with

current legislation

1995


Optimization in RAINS

Energy/agriculture

projections

Emission control

options

OPTIMIZATION

Emissions

Costs

Atmospheric dispersion

Environmental

targets

Environmental impacts


Cost-savings through targeted (optimized) emission controls


Cost-savings through targeted (optimized) emission controls


Conclusions

  • RAINS-Asia 2 now available on CD-ROM

  • SO2 emissions projections lower than 5 years agodue to slower economic growth and new legislation on emission controls

  • But acidification problem in Asia will not be fully resolved

  • Optimization tool can assist in finding cost-effective solutions

  • Extension to multi-pollutant (PM, NOx, O3, GHG?) approach seems possible and relevant


RAINS Asia 2

  • Software on CD-ROM available

    • Contact Asian Development Bank

    • or IIASA (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains)

  • Training sessions planned

  • Zooming-in for national purposes possible, supported by IIASA


On the Internet

  • Slides of this presentation

  • in Powerpoint format

  • are available at

  • http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains


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