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Expected utility is always used as a heuristic

Expected utility is always used as a heuristic. Konrad Talmont -Kaminski Marie Curie- Sklodowska U., Poland. Line of argument. Problem with bounded rationality Dual systems of reasoning What is a heuristic? Expected utility as a heuristic. Bounded rationality.

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Expected utility is always used as a heuristic

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  1. Expected utilityis always used as aheuristic KonradTalmont-KaminskiMarie Curie-Sklodowska U., Poland

  2. Line of argument Problem with bounded rationality Dual systems of reasoning What is a heuristic? Expected utility as a heuristic

  3. Bounded rationality Processes satisficing not maximising Methods context-dependent Reasoning consists of heuristics All reasoning? H. Simon Reason in Human Affairs,1983

  4. Heuristics all the way up? What about logical reasoning? What about scientific reasoning? Does not look like heuristics But… Simon’s explanation of discovery of Boyle’s Law

  5. Dual reasoning J. Evans K. Frankish S. Sloman K. Stanovich D. Kahneman & others • System 1 • Heuristics • Intuitive, quick, innate, automatic • System 2 • Real reasoning • Logical, slow, learned, conscious

  6. Kahneman’s system 1 • Simple heuristics • Anchoring & adjustment, representativeness, availability • Descriptive • Focus on errors produced • Necessitated by empirical data • But Gigerenzer’s critique

  7. Kahneman’s system 2 • Logical reasoning • Utility theory, etc. • Descriptive • but also normative • Necessitated by desire to maintain classical norms of rationality & • Need to explain ‘system 2’ reasoning

  8. Expected utility Paradigmatic example If EU functions as heuristic, (plausibly) all reasoning does EU does not function as Kahneman heuristic Need to go back to Simon’s concept

  9. Simon Kahneman Not necessarily Not necessarily Not necessarily Not necessarily Intuitive Innate Quick Automatic

  10. Simon’s heuristics • Very broad category • Kahneman examples • Behavioural adaptations • Scientific reasoning • In danger of becoming vacuous • Only useful if it supports substantive generalisations

  11. Common traits of heuristics Fallible Efficient Systematically biased Problem-transforming Purpose relative Descended from other heuristics Bill Wimsatt Reengineering Philosophy for Limited Beings, 2007

  12. EU as heuristic? EU formalism does not look like a heuristic But how is EU applied in real situations? Using simplifying assumptions Need to consider formalism+assumption

  13. Traits of EU+assumptions  Fallible Efficient Systematically biased Problem-transforming Purpose relative Descended from other heuristics ?    ?

  14. Heuristics all the way up H. Mercier D. Sperber Why do Humans Reason, BBS forthcoming EU functions as a heuristic Maximising formalism situated in satisficing methodology Same phenomenon in other cases? Kahneman’s‘system 2’ not descriptive Probably not primitively normative, either

  15. Conclusions It is heuristics all the way up Kahneman’s conception of heuristics very limited Simon’s conception much broader and more useful Need to go back to Simon

  16. KonradTalmont-Kaminski In a Mirror, Darkly: How the Supernatural Reflects Rationality (forthcoming) konrad@talmont.com deisidaimon.wordpress.com Thank you

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