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Metro Vision 2035. Regional Growth Scenarios. Scenario Workshop. Scenario Purpose. Educational process “what if” analysis What happens to some of Metro Vision’s key assumptions Food for thought To guide the Board and its committees as they craft the 2035 plan.

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metro vision 2035

Metro Vision 2035

Regional Growth Scenarios

scenario purpose
Scenario Purpose
  • Educational process
    • “what if” analysis
      • What happens to some of Metro Vision’s key assumptions
    • Food for thought
      • To guide the Board and its committees as they craft the 2035 plan
urban centers
Urban Centers

Mixed Use

Centers

Activity

Centers

Regional

Corridors

themes discussed
Themes Discussed
  • Land use variations
  • Transportation variations
  • Pricing variations
measures
Measures
  • Long list
  • Measures selected
  • Measures not selected
12 measures
12 Measures
  • Transportation
    • Vehicle miles traveled
    • Transit Trips
    • Vehicle hours of delay
    • Access to Transit (EJ)
12 measures1
12 Measures
  • Land Use
    • Additional land used for development
    • Households and jobs near transit
    • Public infrastructure costs
    • Population and jobs in urban centers
    • Population and jobs in the Denver CBD
12 measures2
12 Measures
  • Environmental
    • Air pollutant emissions
    • Water demand
    • Wastewater treatment impact
policy dimensions
Policy dimensions

Urban Footprint

Compact

Expanded

Highways

Transportation

Investment

Priorities

Transit

the scenarios
The Scenarios
  • Six scenarios covering key parts of this “policy space”
policy dimensions1
Policy dimensions

Urban Footprint

Compact

Expanded

Highways

D

A

B

C

Transportation

Investment

Priorities

E

F

Transit

scenario b metro vision trend
Scenario B: Metro Vision Trend

Small increase in urban growth boundary (UGB)

Urban footprint (2030)

Urban footprint (2035)

Arterials/collectors added to new urban areas

Roads

Transit

scenario a compact urban footprint
Scenario A: Compact Urban Footprint

No increase in urban growth boundary (UGB)

Urban footprint (2030 and 2035)

No change to roads and transit in 2030 plan

Roads

Transit

scenario c expanded urban footprint
Scenario C: Expanded Urban Footprint

Larger increase in urban growth boundary (UGB)

Urban footprint (2030)

Urban footprint (2035)

Arterials/collectors added to new urban areas

Roads

Transit

scenario d metro vision trend plus highways
Scenario D: Metro Vision Trend Plus Highways

Small increase in urban growth boundary (UGB)

Urban footprint (2030)

Urban footprint (2035)

Add highway improvements to 2030 transportation plan

Roads

Highway improvements

scenario e compact urban footprint plus transit

Transit

Transit Improvements

Scenario E: Compact Urban Footprint Plus Transit

No increase in urban growth boundary (UGB)

Urban Footprint (2030 and 2035)

Add transit improvements to 2030 transportation plan

Roads

scenario f compact urban footprint plus transit plus pricing

Transit

Scenario F: Compact Urban Footprint Plus Transit Plus Pricing

No increase in urban growth boundary (UGB)

Urban Footprint (2030 and 2035)

Add transit improvements to 2030 transportation plan

Roads

Transit Improvements

Double driving costs and make transit free

themes messages
Themes/messages
  • Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) and congestion will increase substantially compared to today
    • Adding 1.56 M more people!
  • Some scenario outcomes can only be achieved with additional transportation investment
themes messages1
Themes/Messages
  • Transportation performance improves in scenarios with more compact development
    • More development in urban centers
    • More transit use
    • More bike/pedestrian trips
    • Shorter trip lengths for autos
themes messages2
Themes/Messages
  • Expanding the region’s “footprint” without new transportation funding is problematic
    • Development extends to the fringes
    • Have only 2030 RTP to accommodate this growth
      • The growth overloads key facilities
        • C-470, I-70 East, I-25 North, etc.
themes messages3
Themes/Messages
  • We can reduce delay if we invest additional funding in highway infrastructure
  • This will also increase total Vehicle Miles Traveled
themes messages4
Themes/Messages
  • If the growth area is constrained, investing in more transit capacity does not make a significant difference (A vs. E)
    • The 2030 RTP transit network already serves the 2030 UGB/A well
    • Lines and services added in E serve smaller markets
    • The return on this additional investment is marginal
themes messages5
Themes/Messages
  • Pricing (Scenario F) results in the most significant decrease in hours of delay
  • Pricing increases transit ridership substantially by changing behavior
    • But at what price?
slide29

Policy dimensions

Urban Footprint

Compact

Expanded

Highways

D

A

B

C

Transportation

Investment

Priorities

E

F

Transit

transportation
Transportation
  • Vehicle miles traveled
  • Transit Trips
  • Vehicle hours of delay
  • Access to Transit (EJ)
environmental
Environmental
  • Air pollutant emissions
  • Water demand
  • Wastewater treatment impact
land use
Land Use
  • Additional land used for development
  • Households and jobs near transit
  • Public infrastructure costs
  • Population and jobs in urban centers
  • Population and jobs in the Denver CBD
slide34

Transportation

Land Use

Better

Worse

Environment

slide35

Scenario B:

Metro Vision

Trend

Transportation

Land Use

B

Environment

B

Metro Vision Trend

slide36

Scenario A:

Compact Urban Footprint

Transportation

Land Use

A

B

A

Compact Urban Footprint

Environment

B

Metro Vision Trend

slide37

Scenario C:

Expanded Urban Footprint

Transportation

Land Use

C

B

C

Expanded Urban Footprint

Environment

B

Metro Vision Trend

slide38

Scenario D:

Metro Vision Trend

+ Highways

Transportation

Land Use

B

D

D

Metro Vision Trend + Highways

Environment

B

Metro Vision Trend

slide39

Scenario E:

Compact Urban Footprint +

Transit

Transportation

E

Land Use

A

B

E

Compact Urban Footprint +Transit

A

Compact Urban Footprint

Environment

B

Metro Vision Trend

slide40

Scenario F:

Compact Urban Footprint +

Transit +

Pricing

Transportation

F

E

Land Use

A

B

F

Compact Urban Footprint + Transit + Pricing

E

Compact Urban Footprint + Transit

A

Compact Urban Footprint

Environment

B

Metro Vision Trend

plan process
Plan Process
  • 2035 Update Committee
    • UGB target
    • Criteria for UGB consideration
  • TAC
    • Transportation facility criteria
  • Draft plan in June
  • Board action in December
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