Rural Road Impact Studies: Some Reflections . John Hine TUDTR World Bank. Why study impact?. General information about socio-economic conditions and use of roads ? To provide an indication of the impact on poverty reduction ? Research on a particular aspect ?
Three main methods:
(the double-difference approach)
The methods may show an association or disprove a connection between roads and development but it is usually impossible to prove a causal link between road investment and development
Roads are not built or planned in a vacuum. The standard method of planning roads is to put them where the strongest growing demand is. Planners look at traffic levels and economic activity. Politicians are sensitive to those who shout the loudest.
So if roads are built to serve the most dynamic areas and communities, and we later find that successful communities had road access but unsuccessful ones did not - what does this show?
- It may only demonstrate conventional planning practise –not that the roads caused the development!
Hence there are dangers in basing an analysis just on the presence or absence of an investment.
In planning ‘controls’ and analyzing impact we need to be aware of heterogeneity of rural areas and the range of factors that can cause variation over time.
An analysis that focuses on transport costs is one of the few ways of:-
1,563 Household surveys
304 Passenger surveys
224 Vehicle operators
104 Focus group discussions
Covering: 42 Feeder Roads
11 Trunk Roads
8 Urban Roads
Follow up studies will be undertaken in the same villages during 2006 and 2007An Ongoing Study in Ghana(by Vision and Optimal Consultants)
Transport Cost/Km involving:
Is higher along completed roads than uncompleted feeder roads for the same Climatic Zone. (As with other surveys reported expenditure exceeds reported income).
Potential improvement of farmgate prices involving:
Percentage increase in farm-gate price
of maize with improved access