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THORPEX: A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM Scientific Guidance Provided by NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee Presentation prepared by Z. Toth THORPEX ORGANIZATION EXECUTIVE OVERSIGHT SCIENTIFIC DIRECTION INTERNATIONAL LEVEL – LINK WITH WMO

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THORPEX:

A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM

NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM

Scientific Guidance Provided by

NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee

Presentation prepared by Z. Toth


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THORPEX ORGANIZATION

EXECUTIVE OVERSIGHTSCIENTIFIC DIRECTION

INTERNATIONAL LEVEL – LINK WITH WMO

  • International Core Steering Committee

    • Michel Beland (Co-chair)

    • Louis Uccellini (US Representat.)

  • International Science Steering Comm.

  • Co-chaired by

    • Mel Shapiro & Alan Thorpe

REGIONAL (NORTH AMERICAN) LEVEL – LINK WITH USWRP

Oversight provided by

North American members of International Core Steering Comm.

  • North American Science Steering Com

    • Co-chaired by

    • David Parsons & Pierre Gauthier

NOAA LEVEL – LINK WITH CORPORATE MANAGEMENT

NOAA THORPEX USWRP Sub-Com.

L. Uccellini (Chair), M. Uhart,

M. Colton, and Jack Hayes

  • NOAA Science Steering Committee

    • Z. Toth (Chair, Program Manager)

    • 12 NOAA and outside members


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NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART

NOAA THORPEX USWRP Sub-Committee

Louis Uccellini (Chair) NWS Michael Uhart OWAQ

Marie Colton ORA/NESDIS Jack Hayes NWS

NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee

Zoltan Toth Chair, Program Manager NOAA/NWS

Observations: Data Assimilation

Jaime Daniels NOAA/NESDIS Craig Bishop NRL

David Emmitt SWA L.-P. Riishojgaard JCSDA

Thomas Schlatter NOAA/FSL

Chris Velden CIMSS

Forecasting/Predictability: Socioeconomic Applications:

Jim Hansen MIT Rebecca Morss NCAR

Jeff Whitaker/T. Hamill NOAA/CDC Marty Ralph NOAA/ERL

George Kiladis NOAA/AL


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THORPEX:

A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM

NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN

Based largely on work of NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting (October 21-22 2002):

  • NOAA NWS

    • Zoltan Toth

    • Naomi Surgi

  • NOAA OAR

    • Melvyn Shapiro

    • Jeff Whitaker

  • Outside NOAA

    • Craig Bishop NRL

    • David Carlson NCAR

    • Ron Gelaro NASA

    • Rebecca Morss NCAR

    • John Murray NASA

    • Chris Snyder NCAR

With further input from NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Team

Acknowledgements:

D. Rogers, L. Uccellini, S. Lord, J. Gaynor, W. Seguin


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NOAA’S INVOLVEMENT IN THORPEX

  • 1998-99 Discussions started with involvement of NOAA scientists

  • Apr 2000 First International Meeting

  • Mar 2002 First Workshop, International Science Steering Committee formed

  • Aug 2002 NOAA Tiger Team Meeting

  • Oct 2002 NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting

  • Nov 2002 1st Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Plan

  • Jan 2003 NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee formed

  • Feb 2003 Pacific TOST Experiment

  • Jun 2003 First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity

  • Sep 2003 25 Full Proposals received

  • Oct-Dec 03 Atlantic Regional Campaign


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THORPEX OBJECTIVES

  • INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM

  • SCIENCE GOAL:

  • Promote research leading to new techniques in:

    • Observations (Collect data)

    • Data assimilation (Prepare initial cond.)

    • Forecasting (Run numerical model)

    • Socioeconomic Applications

    • (Post-process, add value, apply)

  • SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS

  • SERVICE GOAL:

  • Accelerate improvements in utility of 1-14 day forecasts for high impact weather

  • THORPEX ANSWER:

  • Develop new paradigm for weather forecasting through

  • Enhanced collaboration: Internationally

  • Among different disciplines

  • Between research & operations

  • Example: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)


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    THORPEX OBJECTIVES

    SYNERGISTIC COLLABORATION

    SCIENCE GOAL – SHARED WITH ALL PARTICIPANTS, COMMON THEME

    Develop new paradigm for weather forecasting

    Integrate OBS, DA, FCST, & APPLICATION areas of forecast process

    All participants contribute to advancing same science objective

    LEVERAGING RESOURCES

    SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS

    SERVICE GOAL – DIFFERENT PRIORITIES FOR EACH AGENCY/NATION

    Accelerate improvements in utility of forecasts for high impact weather

    Severe weather (Asia?); 1-3 day weather (Europe?); Global monitoring (NASA?)

    All participants share service applications among themselves

    COMPLIMENTARY EFFORTS

    Critical mass of resources needed – Intellectual, Material, Global observs.

    NEED INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION


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    THORPEX OBJECTIVES

    • NOAA’S ROLE

    • Existing NOAA, USWRP and other programs aimed at:

      • Short-range forecast problem: PACJET, IHOP, Cold Season Precip., etc

      • Seasonal & climate forecast problem: CLIVAR, GAPP, etc

    • THORPEX fills critical gap between short-range weather & climate programs:

    • NOAA SERVICE APLLICATION GOAL

    • Accelerate improvements in weather forecasts to facilitate issuance of skillful

      • 3-7 day precipitation forecasts

      • 8-14 day daily weather forecasts

    • NOAA’S ROLE

    • Existing NOAA, USWRP and other programs aimed at:

      • Short-range forecast problem: PACJET, IHOP, Cold Season Precip., etc

      • Seasonal & climate forecast problem: CLIVAR, GAPP, etc

    • THORPEX fills critical gap between short-range weather & climate programs:

    • NOAA’S SERVICE APLLICATION GOAL

    • Accelerate improvements in weather forecasts to facilitate issuance of skillful

      • 3-7 day precipitation forecasts

      • 8-14 day daily weather forecasts


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    THORPEX:

    A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM

    NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN

    TO REACH NOAA’S SERVICE GOAL

    52-page document based on input from 18 NOAA and outside experts

    INTRODUCTION New forecast paradigm

    SCIENCE PLAN Major Themes

    Open Science Questions

    Research and Development Tasks

    IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Work Plan

    Deliverables

    Performance measures

    Education/Outreach

    Path to Operations

    APPENDIX Link with NOAA Strategic Goals

    NWS STIP Process


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    WEATHER FORECASTING FOR DAYS 3-14

    • Based on guidance from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models

    • Quality tied with that of NWP model forecasts

    • Components of NWP forecasting:

    • Observing system – Collect data

    • Data assimilation - Prepare initial conditions

    • Forecast procedures –

      Run numerical model

    • Societal & economic applictns –

      Post-process, add value, apply


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    TRADITIONAL FORECAST APPROACH

    Each discipline developed on its own

    Disjoint steps in forecast process

    Little or no feedback

    One-way flow of information

    Uncertainty in process ignored


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    STATUS QUO SCENARIO

    Forecast skill improves

    As in any learning process, improvements become harder as skill advances

    Maintaining or accelerating rate of improvements not possible with current status quo approach/resources

    Substantial resources spent on improving NWP

    Is this acceptable when sensitivity/vulnerability of society to weather increases?


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    THORPEX SOLUTION:

    REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS

    Invest in major new NWP program =>

    Develop new NWP procedures

    INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE

    Return – Pace of forecast improvement maintained/accelerated

    Assess costs and societal/economic benefits of new procedures

    Implement operationally most cost effective new methods

    Return – Enhanced operational capability

    Improved cost effectiveness


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    NEW NWP PARADIGM - 1

    INTEGRATED NWP

    Sub-systems developed in coordintation

    End-to-end forecast process

    Strong feedback

    Two-way interaction among components

    Error/uncertainty accounted for at each

    Based on better understanding of forecast process


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    NEW NWP PARADIGM - 2

    Integrated

    ADAPTIVE

    Based on more detailed understanding of natural processes

    Allows more differentiated, case dependent methods/procedures

    Exmples

    Observations – Adaptive platform collects data to fill gaps due to clouds

    Data assimilation – Flow dependent forecast error estimates

    Forecasting – Situation dependent modeling algorithms –

    e. g., hurricane relocation

    Applications – Probabilistic forecast reflects all forecast info => ultimate adaptation of user procedures to weather


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    NEW NWP PARADIGM - 3

    Integrated

    Adaptive

    USER CONTROLLABLE

    Based on:

    2-way interactions (improved forecast process)

    Adaptive approach (better understanding of nature)

    Forecast process

    Traditionally driven by FIXED user requirements

    Now responsive to CHANGING user needs

    User needs connected to observational, data assimilation, and forecast systems

    Dynamical analysis of nature & forecast process

    New, NWP model based tools

    Fully interactive forecast process

    Example:User identifies critical forecast weather event

    Special observational or forecast procedures

    Improved targeted forecast


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    SCIENCE OBJECTIVE: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS -INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE

    NEW NWP

    Sub-systems developed in coordination

    End-to-end forecast process

    Strong feedback among components

    Two-way interaction

    Error/uncertainty accounted for

    TRADITIONAL NWP

    Each discipline developed on its own

    Disjoint steps in forecast process

    Little or no feedback

    One-way flow of information

    Uncertainty in process ignored

    SERVICE GOAL: IMPROVE 3-14 DAY FORECASTS


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    NEW NWP PARADIGM - 4

    Isolated examples exist

    INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT

    NPOESS instrument/platform design:

    Input from OSSE work (data assimilation/forecasting needs considered)

    - North American Observing System initiative

    ADAPTIVE APPROACH

    GFDL hurricane model runs at NWS when needed

    USER CONTROL – WSR program at NWS

    Threat of winter storm – potential societal impact

    Dynamical calculations

    Targeted observations collected

    Targeted data inserted in analysis/forecast process

    From the EXCEPTION, THORPEX will make interactive, adaptive, & user controlled methods the RULE


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    NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM OVERVIEW – ACTIVITIES

    • ANSWER SCIENCE QUESTIONS

      Advance basic knowledge,

      directed explicitly toward NWP applications

      Each task conceived as part of overall program

    • DEVELOP NEW METHODS

      Sub-system development

      Academic research

      Cross-cutting activities

      Academic + operational centers

      Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)

      Real-time test and demonstration

      Infrastructure / Core tasks

      Facilitate other activities - Strong agency involvement

      THORPEX Data Base

      Operational Test Facility

    • RECOMMEND/PREPARE OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION

      Integral part of program

      Strong participation by operational centers


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    SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES

    Observing system (OBS)

    Data assimilation (DA)

    Forecast procedures (FCST)

    Socio-economic Applications (SA)

    Cross-cutting activities

    Core tasks


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    SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 1

    OBSERVING SYSTEM

    New in-situ and remote instruments/platforms to complement existing network

    Adaptive observing instruments/platforms

    For large data sets

    Super-obing etc prior to OR within data assimil.

    (Joint work with data assimilation)

    Obs. error estimation (correlated/uncorrelated)


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    SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 2

    Observing system

    DATA ASSIMILATION

    Improve techniques

    Forward models, transfer codes

    Thinning of data

    Treatment of data with correlated errors

    Advanced methods to use flow dependent covariance

    4DVAR research, e.g., continual update of error covariance

    Ensemble based techniques

    Treatment of model errors

    Adaptive observing techniques

    Quick use of targeted data (“pre-emptive” forecasting)

    Methods in the presence of

    Strong non-linearities

    Model error

    Effectiveness of targeted data in analyses/forecasts

    Effect on climatological applications of data


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    SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 3

    Observing system

    Data assimilation

    FORECAST PROCEDURES

    Initial ensemble perturbations (Joint with data assimilation)

    Role of non-modal behavior

    Separate model related error from initial value errors

    Systematic vs. random errors

    Atmospheric features most affected

    Critical model features responsible for different errors

    Improve model formulation to reduce errors (Coupling techniques)

    Techniques to account for remaining uncertainty in ensembles (physics, etc)

    Adaptive modeling and ensemble techniques


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    SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 4

    Observing system

    Data assimilation

    Forecast procedures

    SOCIO-ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS

    Probabilistic forecasting

    Statistical post-processing

    New procedures for intermediate and end users

    Add-on costs of new THORPEX NWP process

    Cost of data from multi-use satellite platforms (Joint with Observtns.)

    Incremental societal/economic benefits of new NWP process

    New NWP verification measure

    Societal aspects of new adaptive NWP procedures

    Equitable use of NWP resources, how adaptive procedures applied nationally and internationally


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    CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES

    Integrating NWP procedures from four sub-systems

    Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)

    Data needs of NWP

    What variables/resolution/accuracy required

    Instrument/platform neutral assessment

    What instruments/platforms can provide data needs

    Existing and new in-situ & remote platforms

    Adaptive component to complement fixed network

    Most cost effective solution

    Relative value of improvements in four sub-systems

    Improvements in which sub-system offer best return?

    Reallocation of resources

    Test of proposed operational configurations

    Major field program if needed

    Cost/benefit analysis - Select most cost effective version


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    CORE TASKS

    Needed for efficient research & planned operations

    Strong agency involvement

    THORPEX data base (observations, forecasts)

    Information Technology challenge

    High data volume

    Transmission

    Storage of data

    Foster collaboration in critical areas

    Workshops (Societal and economic impacts)

    Joint proposals – Interdisciplinary collaboration

    Critical in past programs like FASTEX

    Test-bed – Pathway from research to operations

    Formal procedure for researchers to follow

    Melting pot for new ideas

    Venue for cross-cutting activities


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    NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM OVERVIEW - DELIVERABLES

    DELIVERABLES

    New forecast techniques

    Observing, data assimilation, forecasting, application tools

    Accelerated forecast improvements

    Integrated, adaptive, user controllable NWP

    Cost effective operational system

    Based on cost/benefit analysis

    Enhanced user interface

    COSTS

    Research Grant Program

    Integrated program - Four sub-areas & cross-cutting activities

    Operational Test Facility

    Simulated forecast process; Database

    Real-time test/implementation

    Data transmission, Computations, Training

    OVERALL MEASURE OF SUCCESS:

    SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS

    MUST OUTWEIGH OPERATIONAL COSTS


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    LINK WITH NOAA MISSION GOAL

    NOAA’S 3rd MISSION GOAL – sounds like excerpt fromTHORPEX doc.:

    NOAA will “provide integrated observations, predictions, and advice for decision makers to manage… environmental resources”.

    Mission strategies and measures of success

    directly correspond with

    THORPEX Sub-program areas:

    NOAA MISSION STRATEGY THORPEX FORECAST COMPONENTS

    Monitor and Observe Observations

    Understand and Describe Data Assimilation

    Assess and Predict Forecasting

    Engage, Advise, and Inform Socio-economic Applications

    Different Line Offices responsible for various forecast components –

    NEED FOR NEW MATRIX MANAGEMENT CONCEPT FOR INTEGRATION


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    LINK WITH NWS STIP PROCESS

    National Weather Service (NWS) –

    NOAA’s operational weather forecast provider

    NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP) –

    Operational requirements should motivate all service oriented research

    Research must have thread to operations &

    Credible path to operational implementation

    SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS

    THORPEX seeks advanced knowledge on two fronts:

    Nature (atmospheric and related processes)

    Forecast procedures (OBS, DA, FCST & SA techniques)

    Integrating knowledge from two areas leads to new forecast paradigm of

    INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, AND USER CONTROLLABLE FCST PROCESS


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    THORPEX:

    A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM

    OVERVIEW OF NOAA’S THORPEX-RELATED ACTIVITIES

    • ACCOMPLISHMENTS:

    • Contributed to International Science Plan

    • Contributes to forming THORPEX International Program Office (Under WMO auspices in Geneva)

    • Contributes to North American Implementation Plan

    • Formed NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee

    • Developed NOAA THORPEX Long-Term Research Plan

    • Issued First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity (AO)

    • ONGOING EFFORT:

    • Evaluation of research proposals in response to AO

    • Atlantic Regional Campaign

    • OUTSTANDING ISSUES:

    • Funding for AO unresolved

    • Funding for Operational Test Facility (FTO) needed


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    NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM PROJECT

    • GOALS: Accelerate improvements in operational weather forecasting

      • through Canadian-US collaboration

    • Seamless (across boundary and in time) suite of products

      • through joint Canadian-US operational ensemble forecast system

  • PARTICIPANTS: Meteorological Service of Canada (CMC, MRB)

    • US National Weather Service (NCEP)

  • PLANNED ACTIVITIES: Ensemble data exchange (June 2004)

  • Research and Development -Statistical post-processing

    • (2003-2007) -Product development

    • -Verification/Evaluation

  • Operational implementation (in phases, 2004-2008)

  • POTENTIAL PROJECT EXPANSION / LINKS:

    • Shared interest with THORPEX goals of

      • Improvements in operational forecasts

      • International collaboration

    • Expand bilateral NAEFS in future

      • Entrain broader research community

      • Multi-center / multi-national ensemble system:

      • MOA with Japan Meteorological Agency



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    COSTS/DELIVERABLES

    Costs:

    Research program

    Integrated concept – need to fund research in all four areas of NWP

    Operational implementation

    Deliverables

    New observing, data assimilation, forecasting, & application tools to implement integrated, adaptive, user controllable NWP

    Acceleration in current NWP improvements

    Socio-economic benefits must outweigh operational costs


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    NOAA THORPEX OBJECTIVES

    • 1) Develop new forecast procedures leading to

    • Improved operational NWP forecasts; and

    • Develop/adapt cost/benefit tools to measure resulting societal impact

    • ULTIMATE MEASURE OF SUCCESS

    • The overall success of the NOAA THORPEX program will be measured in a unique and comprehensive way. The program will be considered successful if the newly developed cost/benefit analysis tools (point 3 above) indicate that the forecast improvements (point 2) due to the new THORPEX procedures (point 1) can be achieved operationally in a cost-effective manner. That is, the incremental economic and societal benefits associated with the use of the new THORPEX forecast procedures outweigh their implementation and maintenance costs.


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    NEED FOR COLLABORATIVE PROGRAM

    Interdisciplinary research

    Different groups/agencies/nations need to collaborate

    Integrated approach to NWP – 4 sub-systems

    Practical goal – Research + Operations

    Challenging program

    Need critical mass of resources

    Intellectual

    Material

    Synergistic activities

    Priorities of other agencies may be different

    Common overarching THORPEX themes

    Complementary efforts

    Leveraging of resources

    Global data and all NWP methods universally needed

    INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM HIGHLY DESIRABLE


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