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IMPROVING RESPONSE Steve Lyons The Weather Channel NHC Orlando, FL April 11, 2006 THE $100,000 QUESTION DOES THE MESSAGE NEED TO IMPROVE, OR DO THE PROCESSES AND THEIR OPTIONS NEED TO IMPROVE? THE MESSAGE STEVE’S 1 st LAW OF RESPONSE… NO INFORMATION IS BAD INFORMATION

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IMPROVING RESPONSE

Steve Lyons

The Weather Channel

NHC

Orlando, FL

April 11, 2006


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THE $100,000 QUESTION

DOES THE MESSAGE NEED TO IMPROVE, OR DO THE PROCESSES AND THEIR OPTIONS NEED TO IMPROVE?


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THE MESSAGE

  • STEVE’S 1st LAW OF RESPONSE…

    NO INFORMATION IS BAD INFORMATION


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REQUIRED RESPONSE SHOULD BE FAR LESS SEVERE!

  • “POOR” FORECASTS

  • RISING POPULATIONS

  • INADEQUATE ROADS

  • NON LOCAL EVACUATIONS

  • INSUFFICIENT “LOCAL” SHELTER SPACE

  • INADEQUATE SHELTER SUPPORT

  • GET EM’ OUT OF THERE MENTALITY

  • POOR/UNSAFE CONSTRUCTION…

    ALL LEAD TO OVER RESPONSE BY FAR GREATER NUMBERS OF PEOPLE THAN IS NECESSARY.

    THIS IS BY ITSELF POOR RESPONSE


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“PHASED EVACUATIONS”

  • STEVE’S 2nd LAW OF RESPONSE…

    GREED COMBINED WITH IMPERFECT COMMUNICATIONS DICTATES “PHASING” WILL FAIL IN HIGH POPULATION AREAS!


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“PHASED EVACUATIONS”

  • DOES YOUR PUBLIC KNOW YOUR PHASES?

  • MAKE THE PROCESS AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE (REMOVE FAILURE POINTS)


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WHAT IS THE RISK?

  • NOT ALL CAT 3’s ARE EQUAL, SOME ARE FAR MORE DANGEROUS THAN OTHERS!

  • PROVIDE CONSISTENT “LOCALIZED” RESPONSE INFORMATION

  • EDUCATE THE PUBLIC ABOUT YOUR PLAN BEFORE YOU ASK THEM TO FOLLOW IT

  • GIVE PEOPLE GOOD REASONS & GOOD OPTIONS TO RESPOND




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Long Beach MS 2005!(after Katrina)


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EARLY EVACUATIONS

  • STEVE’S 3rd LAW OF RESPONSE…

    THE EARLIER YOU START THE EVACUATION THE LESS LIKELY IT WAS NECESSARY!



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FALSE ALARMS & BAD EXPERIENCE

  • EVACUATION FALSE ALARMS ARE RARELY FORGOTTEN


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FALSE ALARMS & BAD EXPERIENCE

  • STEVE’S 4th LAW OF RESPONSE…

    BAD EVACUATION EXPERIENCES

    ARE NEVER FORGOTTEN!


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SHELTERS & SAFE HAVENS

  • STEVE’S 5th LAW OF RESPONSE…

    THE MORE RESTRICTIONS YOU PUT ON SHELTERS, THE LESS LIKELY PEOPLE ARE TO USE THEM.


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SHELTERS & SAFE HAVENS

  • PETS ARE A PART OF THE FAMILY, DEAL WITH THEM

  • ALOCAL SAFE HAVEN IS A BEST OPTION (IF IT IS POSSIBLE)…THE REQUESTED RESPONSE IS LESS SEVERE!


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THE UNTESTED

  • STEVE’S 6th LAW OF RESPONSE…

    THE UNTESTED RESPONDERS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST PROBLEMS!



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THE COST!

  • STEVE’S 7TH LAW OF RESPONSE…

    YOU CAN NOT MOVE PROPERTY!


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THE COST

1. Katrina 2005   $75+ billion 2. Andrew 1992 30 3. Charley 2004 15 4. Ivan 2004 14

5. Wilma 2005 126. Rita 2005 10 7. Frances 2004 9 8. Hugo 1989 79. Jeanne 2004 710. Allison 2001 5

7 of the 10 costliest within the last 2 years!


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CONCLUSIONS

MITIGATE

EVACUATE WITHIN YOUR OWN HOME

BE PREPARED EQUALLY WELL EVERY HURRICANE SEASON…TOTAL NUMBERS DON’T MEAN MUCH!


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