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Members: Javeria Ashraf, Muhammad Adnan, Naeem Manzoor Muhammad Zawar , Abdul Ghaffar

Targeted Training Activity: El Nino Southern Oscillation Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate (30 Jul – 10 Aug, 2012) . Group Presentation South Asia (Pakistan). Members: Javeria Ashraf, Muhammad Adnan, Naeem Manzoor Muhammad Zawar , Abdul Ghaffar. Study Area

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Members: Javeria Ashraf, Muhammad Adnan, Naeem Manzoor Muhammad Zawar , Abdul Ghaffar

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  1. Targeted Training Activity: El Nino Southern Oscillation Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate (30 Jul – 10 Aug, 2012) Group Presentation • South Asia (Pakistan) Members: Javeria Ashraf, Muhammad Adnan, Naeem Manzoor Muhammad Zawar , Abdul Ghaffar

  2. Study Area SST from Nino3.4 Region: 5S - 5N; 170W – 120W Pakistan: 20-40N, 60-80E Model Used CNRM-CERFACS.CNRM-CM5 Observation Data Used NCEP Reanalysis Hadley Centre SST Variables Temperature & Precipitation Time Period Pi-control: 1961-2005; Historical: 1961-2005; Future: 2056-2100; Reanalysis: 1961-2005

  3. Surface Temperature (JJAS)

  4. Pakistan Precipitation Anomalies (JJAS)

  5. Difference between Historical and Pi Control run Precipitation Surface Temperature

  6. Pakistan Precipitation (JJAS) 1961-2005 Control Run Historical Reanalysis

  7. Correlation between Precipitation and Nino 3.4 in Control, Historical & Reanalysis Control Run Historical Reanalysis

  8. Correlation between Reanalysis and Nino 3.4 (Historical) Correlation between Nino 3.4 & Prec (1961-2005)

  9. El-Nino & La-Nina Years

  10. ENSO Composites of precipitation La-Nina Composite El-Nino Composite Avg. prec (Historical) El-Nino Composite La-Nina Composite El-Nino Composite Avg. prec (Reanalysis)

  11. RCP8.5

  12. RCP8.5

  13. Conclusions • CNRM-CERFACS.CNRM-CM5 shows consistent results over the nino3.4 region during 1961-2005 • Nino 3.4 shows negative correlation with precipitation in the study region. For the period 1981-2005, the negative correlation is stronger compared to 1961-1980. • Over the study region, observed data shows that monsoon rainfall is suppressed during the El Nino event and enhanced during the La Nina years, this pattern is not same in the model. • Surface temperatures over the Nino 3.4 region shows a clear increasing trend in the future (2056-2100) • RCP8.5 shows increase in temperatures over the study region, the increase is higher in the northern areas. The model shows increase in precipitation over the major part of the country, but decrease in the northern parts.

  14. Supplementary ;Climatic Zones of Pakistan

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