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PSYC 200 Week #10

Thinking Like a Psychologist… and Ethics. PSYC 200 Week #10. Agenda. Roll call Essay #2 (missing several) Intuitions Test Probability, Chance, and the Popular Image of Psychology Ethics. Intuitions Test. Probability and Chance. What is randomness / chance?.

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PSYC 200 Week #10

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  1. Thinking Like a Psychologist… and Ethics PSYC 200Week #10

  2. Agenda • Roll call • Essay #2 (missing several) • Intuitions Test • Probability, Chance, and the Popular Image of Psychology • Ethics

  3. Intuitions Test

  4. Probability and Chance

  5. What is randomness / chance? • When events occur or change as a result of unpredictable forces or events. • Randomness plays a part in almost every single activity you do. • In psychological research and practice, there are always random factors at work • Psychological tests and measurements • Treatments / therapies • Therefore, psychologists make probabilistic statements…

  6. The role of probability in psychology • Statements of reality are probabilistic… • They are true most of the time • Men tend to be taller than women • Students who do better on the SATs tend to do better in college • They DO NOT have to be true all of the time • What works for most people most of the time. • When we observe something, we have to determine the probability that the observation was chance

  7. I know a person who… • A single (or even multiple) cases of individuals that seem to go against a known theory does not invalidate the theory. Theories are probabilistic. • Smoking and lung cancer • Cholesterol and heart attacks • Abuse and depression • Others?

  8. Probabilistic Reasoning • Base-rate information • Sample size • Gambler’s fallacy

  9. Chance and Psychology • Humans tend to explain chance events • Illusory Correlation: believing that a relationship exists between 2 variables that co-occur, but a relationship does not exist • Looking for signs… • Chance events and oddmatches • 5 coins all heads = .03 • 5 coins, 10o flips, all heads = .96

  10. Why psychology is the strong, silent kid who gets beat up all the time. The Challenged Science

  11. Psychology’s misrepresentation • Dr. Phil • Oprah • [Insert Talk Show Host here] • Second-class literature

  12. Psychological “literature” • Self-help • Free your mind • Eat fruits and vegetables • You are your own best friend • How to meet new people and impress them and make them love you and pay you $$ with psychological techniques • The REAL psychological literature is usually in the science section

  13. The Paranormal • ESP • Not a fruitful area of research • Studied for a long time (since start of psychology) • 90 years of controlled studies • Zero (0) have provided replicable evidence of ESP under controlled conditions.

  14. The Basics • Psychology focuses on the reasons for X and Y to happen together (i.e., the causes) – i.e., Basic Research • Why you forget where you put your keys • Why friendly people are more successful • Why watching sexy TV causes teenage pregnancy (j/k) • This investigatory process is far less sexy than: • Win friends and become a CEO

  15. NO-bel • There is no Nobel Prize in psychology • Resistance to scientific psychology • Anything goes? • Not in psychology • Your beliefs about human behavior are testable and falsifiable by empirical means!! • Psychology is seen as so pervasive, it’s nowhere. • What is a psychologist? • Every person? • Or something more?

  16. Judging PsuedoScience • “A tendency to invoke ad hoc hypotheses as a means of immunizing claims from falsification. • An emphasis on confirmation rather than refutation. • A tendency to place the burden of proof on skeptics, not proponents, of claims. • Excessive reliance on anecdotal and testimonial evidence… • Evasion of peer review… • Failure to build on existing scientific knowledge.” (p. 200/203)

  17. Summary Exercise • Empirical problems, many areas • Falsifiable theories • Definitions are operational • Systematic and public empiricism • Peer review • Control and manipulation • Multiple methods, multiple strengths, multiple weaknesses • Aggregation of data / observations  conclusions • Probabilistic statements about reality

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